2Alum4EverVol
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Selection Sunday (May 15) is still 4 wks away, but the excitement surrounding the postseason is slowly building up and the race to finish higher in the conference standings is heating up. With only a few wks of play left in the regular season, the hopeful participants in the big dance are now jockeying for playoff position to earn a higher national seed. But, does earning a higher seed, preferably one of top 8 seeds if possible, always guarantee a spot in a super regional/WCWS? Obviously not. How much of an advantage is it to get a top-8/-16 seed in increasing the chances of a passage to OKC? I've looked at some of the postseason stats from 2010-2015 and found the following:
1. It's rare to see all the top 8 seeds make out of their respective super regional and advance to WCWS. Upsets do happen along the way, and a top 8 seed does fall before reaching its destiny, sometimes in a regional play.
The only time in that period when all the top 8 national seeds advanced to WCWS was last year when #1 FL, #2 OR, #3 MI, #4 Auburn, #5 LSU, #6 AL, #7 UCLA and #8 Tennessee made out of a super regional. The last time before 2015 for the top 8 seeds to hold form was 2006 when #1 AZ, #2 UCLA, #3 Northwestern, #4 Texas, #5 AZ St, #6 AL, #7 Tennessee and #8 OR St made out of a super regional.
Top 8 national seeds which did not even get out of their regional were #7 Texas, #8 Ga Tech (2010) and #3 Texas (2011).
2. Receiving a top-16 seed greatly increases the chance of advancing to OKC. The seeding will likely hold form for most of the early round regional games.
Except for 2011 (when the unseeded Oklahoma State and Houston met in the Still Water Super Regional) and 2012 (when South Florida and Hofstra crashed the party and met in the Tampa Super Regional) all the participants in OKC had been one of the top 16 national seeds. The double digit seeds which happened to advance to OKC in that period were #15 Tennessee (upsetting #2 seed Michigan), #16 Hawaii (pulling off a monumental upset against #1 seed Alabama. 2010), #11 Baylor (beat #6 GA. 2011), #11 Oregon (beat #6 Texas. 2012), #11 Washington (upset #6 Mizzou), #14 Nebraska (upset #3 Oregon. 2013) and #13 Baylor (upset #4 GA), #14 Kentucky (upset #3 UCLA. 2014). Some crazy stuff had happened, and that's a part of fun, but holding one of top 16 national seeds usually worked out well for the schools involved.
3. The only time #1 seed did not advance to OKC was 2010 when #16 seed Hawaii shocked Bama in 2 games in Tuscaloosa.
Can same kind of earth-shattering upset happen this year to the probable #1 overall seed two-time defending national champion Florida Gators? It will be even a much bigger upset if that happens. Who knows. That's why you suit up and play the game.
4. Overall, in 48 super regional match-ups, higher seeds ended up winning 39 of those match-ups (81.3%).
Playing at home field is a clear advantage in postseason play. Usually, a higher seeded team is a superior team anyway, and the advantage of playing at all familiar home turf in front of wildly cheering home crowd thusly skews the odds of winning in its favor.
Here's hoping that Tennessee gets one of the coveted top 16 national seeds, preferably a top 8 seed come Selection Sunday. The Weeklys do have an outstanding record in NCAA postseason play, particularly in the super regionals (7-1). I like our chances if Tennessee gets to a super regional.
1. It's rare to see all the top 8 seeds make out of their respective super regional and advance to WCWS. Upsets do happen along the way, and a top 8 seed does fall before reaching its destiny, sometimes in a regional play.
The only time in that period when all the top 8 national seeds advanced to WCWS was last year when #1 FL, #2 OR, #3 MI, #4 Auburn, #5 LSU, #6 AL, #7 UCLA and #8 Tennessee made out of a super regional. The last time before 2015 for the top 8 seeds to hold form was 2006 when #1 AZ, #2 UCLA, #3 Northwestern, #4 Texas, #5 AZ St, #6 AL, #7 Tennessee and #8 OR St made out of a super regional.
Top 8 national seeds which did not even get out of their regional were #7 Texas, #8 Ga Tech (2010) and #3 Texas (2011).
2. Receiving a top-16 seed greatly increases the chance of advancing to OKC. The seeding will likely hold form for most of the early round regional games.
Except for 2011 (when the unseeded Oklahoma State and Houston met in the Still Water Super Regional) and 2012 (when South Florida and Hofstra crashed the party and met in the Tampa Super Regional) all the participants in OKC had been one of the top 16 national seeds. The double digit seeds which happened to advance to OKC in that period were #15 Tennessee (upsetting #2 seed Michigan), #16 Hawaii (pulling off a monumental upset against #1 seed Alabama. 2010), #11 Baylor (beat #6 GA. 2011), #11 Oregon (beat #6 Texas. 2012), #11 Washington (upset #6 Mizzou), #14 Nebraska (upset #3 Oregon. 2013) and #13 Baylor (upset #4 GA), #14 Kentucky (upset #3 UCLA. 2014). Some crazy stuff had happened, and that's a part of fun, but holding one of top 16 national seeds usually worked out well for the schools involved.
3. The only time #1 seed did not advance to OKC was 2010 when #16 seed Hawaii shocked Bama in 2 games in Tuscaloosa.
Can same kind of earth-shattering upset happen this year to the probable #1 overall seed two-time defending national champion Florida Gators? It will be even a much bigger upset if that happens. Who knows. That's why you suit up and play the game.
4. Overall, in 48 super regional match-ups, higher seeds ended up winning 39 of those match-ups (81.3%).
Playing at home field is a clear advantage in postseason play. Usually, a higher seeded team is a superior team anyway, and the advantage of playing at all familiar home turf in front of wildly cheering home crowd thusly skews the odds of winning in its favor.
Here's hoping that Tennessee gets one of the coveted top 16 national seeds, preferably a top 8 seed come Selection Sunday. The Weeklys do have an outstanding record in NCAA postseason play, particularly in the super regionals (7-1). I like our chances if Tennessee gets to a super regional.
