So...what if we go 6-6 again next season?

Not at all. It would mean there is still a great deal of work to be done with his SOPHOMORE recruiting class.

You can't just look at his roster in a vacuum... and it won't be a team made up solely of Sophs.

North, Croom, Pearson, Pig,... will be 3rd year or more players. The OL will be made up primarily of 3rd year plus players. The QB is a JR.

On D, Barnett will start in front of 3rd year plus back ups... McKenzie might as well. UT will have a true Jr anchoring the LB's plus a bunch of talent plus Maggitt in base D. The secondary will have two S's starting with at least 3 years in CFB. Sutton will be a Jr.


AND you still have to make the positive comparison to the rosters and depth charts of the teams UT will face. UT was behind. But the catch up has accelerated to the point that they will pass some of the competition like they're sitting still (in terms of talent and experience).

I know that you are loath to let yourself have high expectations... but roster wise there is EVERY reason to think that a 6 loss season would be very sub-par.

I'm sure you would bristle if someone said that Jones wasn't building a quality roster. But then you also disagree when someone suggests that the quality roster he has built should beat teams with lesser rosters? You don't want to acknowledge that coaching would be a factor.

Again, before we get too down the line of "what ifs"... I sincerely do not believe we're going to be talking about a 6 loss team a year from now.

BTW, many of the early prognosticators are agreeing with that sentiment. They have looked at what UT returns compared to the rest of the East... and see UT making a big move.
 
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I don't think Ark will make the move many expect... but still agree with your post. I think Ark will rise from the bottom to "middling". I think Mizzou is in for a tough year in the SEC. They still play a very weak OOC schedule so they'll look better than they are.

UT's recruiting compared to Ark's recruiting puts UT's ceiling a good bit higher. The Hog staff has done a good job already of getting the potential from their roster... but I still think UT will have a distinct talent advantage when they meet. UT also returns more from their starting line up and two deep.

Just looking way, way out into the future... I think Barnett will own Skipper.

I've never been impressed with Mizzou, they just happened to join the conference at the right time. If it was decided that they would've been part of the West instead of the East, we'd be talking about a 5 to 7 win team these first few years. There is no way they would've survived the gauntlet that is the SEC West. I think they get smacked around hard by UT and UGA this year in East play. Their little run will be over if Jones is the coach we think he is.
 
I've never been impressed with Mizzou, they just happened to join the conference at the right time. If it was decided that they would've been part of the West instead of the East, we'd be talking about a 5 to 7 win team these first few years. There is no way they would've survived the gauntlet that is the SEC West. I think they get smacked around hard by UT and UGA this year in East play. Their little run will be over if Jones is the coach we think he is.

Agree. Worse yet for Mizzou is the loss of production they've experienced over the last two years. Losing their top 3 WR's then their top 4 this year leaves them with a leading WR who had 5 catches in '14. They have a similar issue at DE. Ray and Golden had good years behind Sam and Ealy. In 13 they lost their top two sack guys but returned the next 5 behind them. This year they lose 4 of their top 5 and almost all of their DE's that had sacks.

Losing Murphy was huge too. They do not have a similar guy to replace him with unless they recruit one.
 
Agree. Worse yet for Mizzou is the loss of production they've experienced over the last two years. Losing their top 3 WR's then their top 4 this year leaves them with a leading WR who had 5 catches in '14. They have a similar issue at DE. Ray and Golden had good years behind Sam and Ealy. In 13 they lost their top two sack guys but returned the next 5 behind them. This year they lose 4 of their top 5 and almost all of their DE's that had sacks.

Losing Murphy was huge too. They do not have a similar guy to replace him with unless they recruit one.

Nice info on returning production for Mizzou. No reason at all to lose yet again to a team with very little production returning. They don't even recruit at a high level, so it would be just downright terrible coaching to lose to them. Hell, when's the last time UT had 40 of 44 from the two deep returning? You mentioned earlier about UT having a top 5 defense in the conference, but I'd go as far as top 3 tbh. We are the deepest we've been in a while on the DL.
 
2015-2016 SCHEDULE
Overall
0-0 Conf.
0-0 Home
0-0 Away
0-0

Date Opponent / Event Location Time / Result

09/05/15 vs. Bowling Green Nashville, Tenn. TBA
09/12/15 vs. Oklahoma Knoxville, Tenn. TBA
09/19/15 vs. Western Carolina Knoxville, Tenn. TBA
09/26/15 at Florida * Gainesville, Fla. TBA
10/03/15 vs. Arkansas * Knoxville, Tenn. TBA
10/10/15 vs. Georgia * Knoxville, Tenn. TBA
10/24/15 at Alabama * Tuscaloosa, Ala. TBA
10/31/15 at Kentucky * Lexington, Ky. TBA
11/07/15 vs. South Carolina * Knoxville, Tenn. TBA
11/14/15 vs. North Texas (Homecoming) Knoxville, Tenn. TBA
11/21/15 at Missouri * Columbia, Mo. TBA
11/28/15 vs. Vanderbilt * Knoxville, Tenn. TBA





Find six losses on this schedule.

Potential losses but not probable losses? Okay.... Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama and Missouri. I'd be willing to bet we'll lose at least 4 of these 6.

That being said, outside of losing our 5-6 most important players to season-ending injury, 6 losses in 2015 is absolutely, unequivocally unacceptable.
 
Potential losses but not probable losses? Okay.... Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama and Missouri. I'd be willing to bet we'll lose at least 4 of these 6.
I wish I gambled... and that you had lots of money. Based on rosters, Mizzou should be penciled in as a win.

That being said, outside of losing our 5-6 most important players to season-ending injury, 6 losses in 2015 is absolutely, unequivocally unacceptable.

:good!:
 
Potential losses but not probable losses? Okay.... Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama and Missouri. I'd be willing to bet we'll lose at least 4 of these 6.

That being said, outside of losing our 5-6 most important players to season-ending injury, 6 losses in 2015 is absolutely, unequivocally unacceptable.

I pretty much agree with all of this.

But, let me ask you, does that all go out the window if Dobbs gets injured?

This offense seems very QB dependent and with pretty much just true freshmen behind him, I wonder what sort of problems we could be in for if he goes down.

Also (and this is the really scary part), it almost seems a likelihood that we have a QB injury at some point, right? I mean, given the number of QB injuries we have had in the past two years (and given the number of QB injuries they had with this offense at Cincinnati, where they never had a single QB start every game of a season), you would probably guess we would have at least one next year, right?
 
I wish I gambled... and that you had lots of money. Based on rosters, Mizzou should be penciled in as a win.



:good!:

That'd make 2 if not 3 or even 4 years in a row now, wouldn't it? We're 0-3 at this point. I now lump Mizzou in with the other teams that routinely beat our brains in vs whom we're currently 0-23.... Florida, Georgia and Bama. Need to see us beat Mizzou, on the road, before I'm willing to predict a win. Jmo.
 
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I pretty much agree with all of this.

But, let me ask you, does that all go out the window if Dobbs gets injured?

This offense seems very QB dependent and with pretty much just true freshmen behind him, I wonder what sort of problems we could be in for if he goes down.

Also (and this is the really scary part), it almost seems a likelihood that we have a QB injury at some point, right? I mean, given the number of QB injuries we have had in the past two years (and given the number of QB injuries they had with this offense at Cincinnati, where they never had a single QB start every game of a season), you would probably guess we would have at least one next year, right?

You're right about qb injuries, they seem to be an inevitability at this point going back to Bray's sophomore year in 2011.....that's 3 of the last 4 years losing our starter.

Losing Dobbs would certainly be a game changer, question is to what extent. We know Peterman can't play and in fact may not even be on the roster. But at this point, given all the talent we will have on the roster, I think it should take multiple key injuries to drop us to a .500 team. It's all just opinion, but I think we should be able to scratch out 7 wins with an EE QB, a strong running game with a pair of 5 star RBs and a stout defense if Dobbs goes down. I'm sure plenty will disagree, but outside of having a catastrophic year with key injuries (say Dobbs, Hurd, JRM, Maggitt, Randolph and a key OL), I think it is imperative we win more than 6 regular season games this year (I think more like 8-9 personally) to believe that Jones can get it done on Saturdays.
 
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How would you react if this happened?

I would have to assess what happened to make that happen. There are critical players that can't be lost or it is impossible to predict what type season they could have. So I would have to assess the whys?

This staff has not yet proven if they can compete in the SEC. Certainly going 6-6 will leave that question out there as an open question. So I would still have that viewpoint.

there are 57 sophomores / freshmen on this roster. that is the minimum and it is likely to go up. Going 6-6 with a roster like that is not unreasonable depending on why games turned out like they would.
 
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I pretty much agree with all of this.

But, let me ask you, does that all go out the window if Dobbs gets injured?
Not Dobbs alone. Winning the East right now with a Fr QB would be pretty remote but winning 8 games if that was the only loss would still be well within grasp. Jones in particular appears to run a very, very similar system in HS.

Jones replaced Legaux with Kay at Cincy. Granted he was not a Fr... but he has successfully dealt with a mid-season change.
 
That'd make 2 if not 3 or even 4 years in a row now, wouldn't it? We're 0-3 at this point. I now lump Mizzou in with the other teams that routinely beat our brains in vs whom we're currently 0-23.... Florida, Georgia and Bama. Need to see us beat Mizzou, on the road, before I'm willing to predict a win. Jmo.

At some point... that shifts. I think you are a great contributor most of the time... but there's just no logic or reason for believing that past losses somehow binds future teams to lose.
 
At some point... that shifts. I think you are a great contributor most of the time... but there's just no logic or reason for believing that past losses somehow binds future teams to lose.

I've been thinking the Florida series was gonna shift for 20 years now. I understand the lack of logic regarding past losses predicting future ones. But I also don't understand taking the "it has to shift eventually" stance when there's no tangible evidence to suggest that it will. Missouri just keeps winning..... that's 2 years in a row now that they've "won the East" despite being consistently discounted and being out recruited by virtually everybody.

Am I jaded at this point? Yes, guilty as charged. But I just don't see how anybody can confidently predict a win over Missouri or Florida or Bama or Georgia until we actually break an 0-26 skid. If we beat any of the 4 this year, especially one of the 3 on the road, I can assure you I'll take a different point of view going into 2016.
 
TBH, that could have been said this year as well. OFTEN, a team's sum is better than its parts.

The law of averages eventually catches up. One team cannot continue to catch all of the breaks... nor find diamonds in the rough that no one else is interested in.

Last year, they had two DE's ready to step in. Next year... unless they've been hiding them... they don't.

AND from an O that was among the worst in the SEC vs the conference in both scoring and total O... subtract every WR that had more than 5 catches and Marcus Murphy. To put that a little more in perspective, the total for MU's returning WR's in '14 was 12 catches for 121 yds. None of them have ever caught a TD pass in college. J Johnson was 9th in receiving for the Vols. He had 10 catches for 117 yds and two TD's.

At a certain point... the sum of the parts can't be overcome.
 
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The law of averages eventually catches up. One team cannot continue to catch all of the breaks... nor find diamonds in the rough that no one else is interested in.

Last year, they had two DE's ready to step in. Next year... unless they've been hiding them... they don't.

AND from an O that was among the worst in the SEC vs the conference in both scoring and total O... subtract every WR that had more than 5 catches and Marcus Murphy. To put that a little more in perspective, the total for MU's returning WR's in '14 was 12 catches for 121 yds. None of them have ever caught a TD pass in college. J Johnson was 9th in receiving for the Vols. He had 10 catches for 117 yds and two TD's.

At a certain point... the sum of the parts can't be overcome.

Iirc, Pinkel is like 72-36 the last 9 years.....he's making a living from making his breaks, finding those diamonds virtually every year, and beating considerably more talented teams (based on recruiting services) all the time.

I'll give you one example. Independence High School had a third D1 player accept a scholly from an SEC school last year....we know 2 of them.... Vic Wharton and Rashaan Gaulden. The 3rd was a kid named Finis Stribling, signed with Missouri, redshirted last year....was ranked lower than both but is extremely athletic....I've known his family and seen him play basketball and football for years....he can fly and he can jump out of the gym. He'll be a RS freshman this year, 5'11 185lb cornerback. I'd bet we'll hear from him in the future and that he'll be one of those kids that nobody really knew Pinkel had, but winds up doing really good things.

Some coaches defy conventional wisdom with their systems. Seems to me both Pinkel and Snyder at KState, among others, have the recipe down pat.
 
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dooley left the program in shambles---it will take butch a couple of more years to build it up
 
Iirc, Pinkel is like 72-36 the last 9 years.....he's making a living from making his breaks, finding those diamonds virtually every year, and beating considerably more talented teams (based on recruiting services) all the time.
....

Some coaches defy conventional wisdom with their systems. Seems to me both Pinkel and Snyder at KState, among others, have the recipe down pat.

True. But there is always a limit. Oregon does something similar at a higher level. But again, the law of averages eventually plays out. The traditional powers of the SECE won't stay down forever. He won't always accurately predict those diamonds in the rough.

But most importantly, there is a breaking point where these "overachievers" just get overwhelmed. MU's game vs UGA this year was an example. Richt and staff didn't outcoach Mizzou. All they really did was realize that they had a more talented team and then ran their stuff.

Also, folks here worry about injuries and UT being "too thin". With the Mizzou/Boise St formula, they can never tolerate more than one or at the most two injuries in a position group. The guys behind the two deep usually aren't ready to play... which is why I think they have trouble in '15. Their back ups weren't near as good as their starters and now they become starters backed up by guys with no experience at all.
 
One last thing, Mizzou's margin for error over the last two years has been razor thin... and that's with "good" teams. The production they lost IMO should impact them more than USCe was impacted by the loss of Clowney, Shaw, et al before '14.
 

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