Simple way to assess the incidence of "flopping" as a strategy to delay the game - basic analytics for the Rules committee

[SockeyeVol]

There is some baseline of what we'll call "temporary injury stoppages" legitimately needed by the defense per game. Maybe it's X. There is variation around this, of course, because life is random. But if some team does this 3X or more in a game, it's statistically likely that it's fake and that they are faking interruptions to delay the game.

I think this is important because our offense is legit; if Heupel and UT cannot get out in front to dispel this, it's going to significantly reduce their effectivess. And we devote millions of dollars in staff salaries and an entire season of training to our system.

Here's a protocol for assessing baseline "true" rate, and then keeping score for particular programs or games. It eliminates excuses or interpretations about why a player might have gone down. This would be for a Rules committee during the offseason, with temp teams like UT pressing for resolution:

1) Determine baseline rate of temporary injuries (TIs).

• Review an entire game and classify all time stoppages for defensive injuries. Those in which the injured player returns again that game are considered Questionable. Let's say there turn out to be 8 of these per game. Further, split these into possessions with and without tempo.
• Review 30-50 other games among Power 5 teams, selected at random. Classify all defensive stoppages the same way.
• Compare the rate at which these happen during tempo possessions vs non-tempo. Are they statistically higher? That's your evidence that this is a strategy, not just random.

2) Apply this to a TN opponent.

• Pretty simple. Tally these over the course of a given team's games. Does the team fall within the normal expected range, or outside? If the latter, the Conference can address it with the program. They can also assess it after a specific game - why did you have 5x the temporary injury rate last Saturday, coach? Are your players not properly conditioned, or are you violating Rule XXXX? Please explain.

I watched the Ole Miss game on TV, so have no way of knowing/seeing/assessing what was really happening with those players. But the number of events seemed quite high, and some basic analytics would cut through the chatter.

 

[allvol123]

Officials can’t get basic fumbles correct.

Rules using statistical analysis ain’t got a shot.

 

[UTK]

Lmao these officials don't care about "fair". They're immune to any punishment or consequences. The only job on planet earth where you can purposely suck at your job in front of millions and not have to worry about anything.

 

[ibvolman]

Simple solution...if a player goes down, lays there a few minutes, hops up and runs to the sideline only to return a play later, then assess a 5 yard delay of game penalty. If the same player goes down again in the same fashion, 5 yard delay of game penalty, and has to sit out 2 series.

 

[CPVOL]

Officials can’t get basic fumbles correct.

Rules using statistical analysis ain’t got a shot.

Exactly. The dumb ass refs we’ve been served up this year aren’t even sure which state their in. But I appreciate your ideas. Honestly if these refs were held accountable then I could see it

 

[goldvol]

Thinking this is a simple solution

 

[njvols]

Simple solution...if a player goes down, lays there a few minutes, hops up and runs to the sideline only to return a play later, then assess a 5 yard delay of game penalty. If the same player goes down again in the same fashion, 5 yard delay of game penalty, and has to sit out 2 series.

I like it... I'd just say they have to sit out at minimum the next 4-5 plays. It does go the other direction also. Let's say we're driving and in the red zone and Hooker gets his bell rung, but is OK...I'd rather have him back in the game on the next play than QB X in there airmailing receivers or running out of bounds.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

At any time play is stopped for a defensive player, he must sit out the rest of the possession

If play is stopped a 2nd time, he must sit out the rest of the possession and the next possession

If play is stopped a 3rd time (looking at you, #44), then the player is out for the game.

 

[TennesseeTarheel]

If you watch Ole Miss at Kentucky, you will see it is a strategy and not just happenstance. I wonder if Kiffin has them practice it and if there is a signal called in from the sideline. One thing might help is to disallow substitutions during an injury timeout.

 

[ibvolman]

The only thing is, you have to substitute for the injured player.

 

[imw8n4u]

There is some baseline of what we'll call "temporary injury stoppages" legitimately needed by the defense per game. Maybe it's X. There is variation around this, of course, because life is random. But if some team does this 3X or more in a game, it's statistically likely that it's fake and that they are faking interruptions to delay the game.

I think this is important because our offense is legit; if Heupel and UT cannot get out in front to dispel this, it's going to significantly reduce their effectivess. And we devote millions of dollars in staff salaries and an entire season of training to our system.

Here's a protocol for assessing baseline "true" rate, and then keeping score for particular programs or games. It eliminates excuses or interpretations about why a player might have gone down. This would be for a Rules committee during the offseason, with temp teams like UT pressing for resolution:

1) Determine baseline rate of temporary injuries (TIs).

• Review an entire game and classify all time stoppages for defensive injuries. Those in which the injured player returns again that game are considered Questionable. Let's say there turn out to be 8 of these per game. Further, split these into possessions with and without tempo.
• Review 30-50 other games among Power 5 teams, selected at random. Classify all defensive stoppages the same way.
• Compare the rate at which these happen during tempo possessions vs non-tempo. Are they statistically higher? That's your evidence that this is a strategy, not just random.

2) Apply this to a TN opponent.

• Pretty simple. Tally these over the course of a given team's games. Does the team fall within the normal expected range, or outside? If the latter, the Conference can address it with the program. They can also assess it after a specific game - why did you have 5x the temporary injury rate last Saturday, coach? Are your players not properly conditioned, or are you violating Rule XXXX? Please explain.

I watched the Ole Miss game on TV, so have no way of knowing/seeing/assessing what was really happening with those players. But the number of events seemed quite high, and some basic analytics would cut through the chatter.

You must work for the NCAA, that is exactly like something they would do instead of something that actually is simple, like not allow the player to return for that series.

 

[VolDorado]

The only thing is, you have to substitute for the injured player.

But that should be all that is allowed. We have to keep in mind that besides breaking any offensive momentum the other reason a team would fake injuries is to help substitute for gassed players or for defensive package situations. So any rule change must not allow for mass substitution.

 

[VAVol85]

At any time play is stopped for a defensive player, he must sit out the rest of the possession

If play is stopped a 2nd time, he must sit out the rest of the possession and the next possession

If play is stopped a 3rd time (looking at you, #44), then the player is out for the game.

I could get behind this. If the guy is repeatedly injured, it most be something serious and in the interest of player safety, he needs to it.

 

[kcvols1]

At any time play is stopped for a defensive player, he must sit out the rest of the possession

If play is stopped a 2nd time, he must sit out the rest of the possession and the next possession

If play is stopped a 3rd time (looking at you, #44), then the player is out for the game.

This jives with concussion protocol. Give the injured player time to be properly assessed in the tent. If he can’t really go the next possession he should be out of the ballgame for his own safety.

 

[MAUSERWERKE]

Simple solution...if a player goes down, lays there a few minutes, hops up and runs to the sideline only to return a play later, then assess a 5 yard delay of game penalty. If the same player goes down again in the same fashion, 5 yard delay of game penalty, and has to sit out 2 series.

The challenge in regulating this is that it involves player safety. If a player is genuinely hurt, you want him to take himself out of competition. But how can you tell if a player is faking? I think the most sensible solution is to require a player who flops to sit out multiple plays, not just one. But you have to accept that this may lead to genuinely injured players opting to stay in the game to avoid having to sit out for multiple plays.

 

[Berry4Heisman14]

There is some baseline of what we'll call "temporary injury stoppages" legitimately needed by the defense per game. Maybe it's X. There is variation around this, of course, because life is random. But if some team does this 3X or more in a game, it's statistically likely that it's fake and that they are faking interruptions to delay the game.

I think this is important because our offense is legit; if Heupel and UT cannot get out in front to dispel this, it's going to significantly reduce their effectivess. And we devote millions of dollars in staff salaries and an entire season of training to our system.

Here's a protocol for assessing baseline "true" rate, and then keeping score for particular programs or games. It eliminates excuses or interpretations about why a player might have gone down. This would be for a Rules committee during the offseason, with temp teams like UT pressing for resolution:

1) Determine baseline rate of temporary injuries (TIs).

• Review an entire game and classify all time stoppages for defensive injuries. Those in which the injured player returns again that game are considered Questionable. Let's say there turn out to be 8 of these per game. Further, split these into possessions with and without tempo.
• Review 30-50 other games among Power 5 teams, selected at random. Classify all defensive stoppages the same way.
• Compare the rate at which these happen during tempo possessions vs non-tempo. Are they statistically higher? That's your evidence that this is a strategy, not just random.

2) Apply this to a TN opponent.

• Pretty simple. Tally these over the course of a given team's games. Does the team fall within the normal expected range, or outside? If the latter, the Conference can address it with the program. They can also assess it after a specific game - why did you have 5x the temporary injury rate last Saturday, coach? Are your players not properly conditioned, or are you violating Rule XXXX? Please explain.

I watched the Ole Miss game on TV, so have no way of knowing/seeing/assessing what was really happening with those players. But the number of events seemed quite high, and some basic analytics would cut through the chatter.

i was at the game. The flop where their corner went down he literally was standing getting ready to play the next play then suddenly just flailed to the ground it was hilariously blatant

 

[AllVols]

should be a loss of a time out if more than once for same player. If no time outs left to forfeit, then a 15 yard penalty, or something like that...

 

[PandamoniumReigns]

For every 3 times, you must give a timeout to your opponent. If you are out of Timeouts, then it's a 15 yard penalty. Throw in a 10 second run off option that the offense can choose to accept or decline if it happens in the final two minutes of each half.

Exception if the player is wheeled out on a stretcher.

 

[PandamoniumReigns]

should be a loss of a time out if more than once for same player. If no time outs left to forfeit, then a 15 yard penalty, or something like that...

Was literally typing out the same thing as you posted.

Great minds....

 

[usagary]

Sometimes, like last night, the refs don’t care about the rules. No amount of rules will fix stupid or possibly corrupt. Like when it took them 5 minutes to discuss whether an obvious safety was a safety or not.

 

[usagary]

This jives with concussion protocol. Give the injured player time to be properly assessed in the tent. If he can’t really go the next possession he should be out of the ballgame for his own safety.

…assessed in the tent by a third party physician. X-Ray, etc.

 

[508mikey]

If something isnt done, Heupels offense is going evaporate before he even gets the right players

 

[kcvols1]

…assessed in the tent by a third party physician. X-Ray, etc.

It’s the perfect frame for the argument.

Instead of “change this because we’re getting jobbed,” it’s “player safety across the league and college football has to be paramount; injuries are too serious a thing to fake for strategy.”

Moral high ground would make those opposed look like football grist mill operations.