Severe Weather Thread

#1,803
#1,803
lylsmorr said:
Hope you're alright gcrop, if this is in arlington then if it stays east it will hit you.
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Thanks man. Pretty much verbatim of your post below (minus the tree). Glad to have no damage but no power sucks. lol

lylsmorr said:
Heavy heavy winds and hail with lots of rain. Knocked a huge tree over and power is out
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#1,804
#1,804
246998_10150173035176734_632056733_6595208_5742320_n.jpg


My friend in the Arlington area took a picture
 
#1,806
#1,806
That was the tornado I saw on Channel 13 that slowly went from horizontal to vertical. Literally watched that funnel cloud form.
 
#1,815
#1,815
News Channel 3 in Memphis showed a clip of a TIV sighting on 40 headed east.

I'm surprised he'd come out this far.
 
#1,817
#1,817
TennTradition said:
Serious bullet dodged..it sounds like. Just goes to show us how many holes still exist in our ability to understand these monsters.
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We seem to understand the climate required to produce them much better. I remember the night before the ones that killed so many a few weeks ago, local weatherman was explaining that if the sun come out in middle TN our tornado threat would multiply rapidly. It didn't and we really didn't have much more than severe thrunderstorms. I remember him specifically saying that a 5 degree temp. change makes an extreme amount of difference.

Knowing exactly where and how long the stay on the ground is virtually unknowable. IMO.
 
#1,819
#1,819
BeecherVol said:
We seem to understand the climate required to produce them much better. I remember the night before the ones that killed so many a few weeks ago, local weatherman was explaining that if the sun come out in middle TN our tornado threat would multiply rapidly. It didn't and we really didn't have much more than severe thrunderstorms. I remember him specifically saying that a 5 degree temp. change makes an extreme amount of difference.

Knowing exactly where and how long the stay on the ground is virtually unknowable. IMO.
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Right, the warmth of the temperature at the ground before the front arrives directly influences how intense the uplift will be and thus the severity of the storm. This is why a few degrees of difference due to higher global temperature is predicted (and seems to have come true) to lead to more intense storm systems-- which has been called liberal propaganda by some, but you can at least see how the dots connect.
 
#1,820
#1,820
BeecherVol said:
We seem to understand the climate required to produce them much better. I remember the night before the ones that killed so many a few weeks ago, local weatherman was explaining that if the sun come out in middle TN our tornado threat would multiply rapidly. It didn't and we really didn't have much more than severe thrunderstorms. I remember him specifically saying that a 5 degree temp. change makes an extreme amount of difference.

Knowing exactly where and how long the stay on the ground is virtually unknowable. IMO.
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Our understanding has been improving, no doubt. Also, our ability to project reasonably areas of concern are pretty good now. I agree that predicting specific areas is not doable at the moment...and kind of hard to imagine being possible in the foreseeable future. But, the outbreak this evening was a good deal behind what I was personally concerned it would be based on the data available...kind of a whiff (thankfully).
 
#1,821
#1,821
Hearin thunder off in the distance.

Edit. That was quick, its at the county line already.
 
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#1,822
#1,822
TennTradition said:
Our understanding has been improving, no doubt. Also, our ability to project reasonably areas of concern are pretty good now. I agree that predicting specific areas is not doable at the moment...and kind of hard to imagine being possible in the foreseeable future. But, the outbreak this evening was a good deal behind what I was personally concerned it would be based on the data available...kind of a whiff (thankfully).
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Its always good to be wrong in this case.
 
#1,823
#1,823
TennTradition said:
Our understanding has been improving, no doubt. Also, our ability to project reasonably areas of concern are pretty good now. I agree that predicting specific areas is not doable at the moment...and kind of hard to imagine being possible in the foreseeable future. But, the outbreak this evening was a good deal behind what I was personally concerned it would be based on the data available...kind of a whiff (thankfully).
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The actual surface conditions of the Earth to a degree of high resolution is just too much to model/be concerned with at this time, and that is one of many sources of variability.
 
#1,825
#1,825
IPorange said:
The actual surface conditions of the Earth to a degree of high resolution is just too much to model/be concerned with at this time, and that is one of many sources of variability.
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Are you suggesting that the weather can be solved with a series of differential equations, but must be seeded with exact initial conditions of every point in space (unavailable) and include incredibly small spatial resolution (unavailable due to expense), thus creating a stochastic nature to something that could be deterministic given well-defined initial conditions and un-limited spatial resolution? :)
 
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