SECN Prediction

#27

camp_steveo

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 24, 2009
Messages
1,507
Likes
1,816
#27
Sounds like a few guys who are stuck in the old way of thinking that says time of possession is a key stat.

It is not, as we proved over and over again last year, winning the game while giving away the clock.

...

Old days: control time of possession, because each team is only going to get one, maybe two, at most three real chances to score all game long. Most possessions will end in a punt. The longer you hold the ball, the better your chances at getting one of those rare chances.

These were the days when final scores were like 21-14 or 14-10.

Those days are gone. A typical Tennessee game since Josh Heupel arrived is a shootout with 50, 60, even 80 total points by the two teams combined.

It is no longer time of possession. it is now breaking serve. Scoring more faithfully than the other guy each time you get the ball.

Funny how many of the talking heads on the sports shows still haven't figured out that paradigm shift in the game.
That's not entirely true because championship teams still play lights out defense, especially when it counts, while scoring almost at will.
 
#29

VFL-82-JP

Bleedin' Orange...
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
17,813
Likes
42,681
#29
That's not entirely true because championship teams still play lights out defense, especially when it counts, while scoring almost at will.
Yes, and even for them it is all about scoring at will while breaking serve when the other team has the ball.

In other words, time of possession has nothing to do with it. Scoring more faithfully everything.

It is entirely true.
 
#30

camp_steveo

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 24, 2009
Messages
1,507
Likes
1,816
#30
UF probably does have the talent to keep it close, especially if UT makes mistakes. That said, UT has looked like the better of the two teams so far this season.

If UT has success on offense, the Vols will be in it no matter how their defense is playing. But, the Vols defense will undoubtedly get some hits on UF's QB and hopefully get some turnovers, maybe even score!
 
#31

fossilfiction

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2012
Messages
3,137
Likes
5,141
#31
Few guys on SECN talking just said Florida out talents us at most positions. Just haven’t been able to put it together.

Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Said we will stack the box to stop the run and leave AR easy options 1 on 1 to make passes.


Their plan is to run, slow the game down to take the crowd out of it.

Interesting take. We will see.
They literally said what every opponent not named Georgia or Alabama would try to do.
I happen to believe Tennessee can score more than Florida, turn the ball over less, and get more stops.
 
#32

camp_steveo

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 24, 2009
Messages
1,507
Likes
1,816
#32
Yes, and even for them it is all about scoring at will while breaking serve when the other team has the ball.

In other words, time of possession has nothing to do with it. Scoring more often everything.

It is entirely true.
TOP is definitely not as important when the offense can score quickly, but if your defense can't make the critical stops when the game is on the line, you will not win too many championships.
 
#33

Aerie Vol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 31, 2012
Messages
2,441
Likes
5,282
#33
Talk radio in north bama has been saying all week that the Vols will embarrass the Gators. Even the "betting analysts" are saying 12 is way lower than what the final will be.

Not that it's worth anything, but I've been surprised that no one has given UF at chance on any of the shows I've been listening to this week.
 
#34

joevol33

trampoline king
Joined
Mar 21, 2011
Messages
260,059
Likes
174,504
#34
Few guys on SECN talking just said Florida out talents us at most positions. Just haven’t been able to put it together.

Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Said we will stack the box to stop the run and leave AR easy options 1 on 1 to make passes.


Their plan is to run, slow the game down to take the crowd out of it.

Interesting take. We will see.
Tell them we'll gladly meet at waffle house and change their minds
 
#35

tngivm6

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 30, 2010
Messages
173
Likes
280
#35
Few guys on SECN talking just said Florida out talents us at most positions. Just haven’t been able to put it together.

Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Said we will stack the box to stop the run and leave AR easy options 1 on 1 to make passes.


Their plan is to run, slow the game down to take the crowd out of it.

Interesting take. We will see.
Makes sense for them to slow it down.
Only problem is when we get up by 2-3 TDS. VOLS are a confident group heading into this game.
They have a taste for winning and strong leadership.
Leadership being the most important.
 
#36

EZE

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 28, 2008
Messages
11,363
Likes
11,506
#36
Few guys on SECN talking just said Florida out talents us at most positions. Just haven’t been able to put it together.

Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Said we will stack the box to stop the run and leave AR easy options 1 on 1 to make passes.


Their plan is to run, slow the game down to take the crowd out of it.

Interesting take. We will see.
That’s why they play the games.

But, when a team tries to grind it out on the ground, it will get into a lot of third down situations, and I don’t see their QB being able to consistently convert them.

I think the key to this game for UT is to not give up big plays, and to force UF into playing small ball.
 
#37

EZE

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 28, 2008
Messages
11,363
Likes
11,506
#37
Makes sense for them to slow it down.
Only problem is when we get up by 2-3 TDS. VOLS are a confident group heading into this game.
They have a taste for winning and strong leadership.
Leadership being the most important.
If UT gets up 2-3 TDs, it most likely will get ugly.
 
#42

BigOrangeTrain

Morior Invictus
Joined
Jan 30, 2013
Messages
60,769
Likes
62,602
#42
Few guys on SECN talking just said Florida out talents us at most positions. Just haven’t been able to put it together.

Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Said we will stack the box to stop the run and leave AR easy options 1 on 1 to make passes.


Their plan is to run, slow the game down to take the crowd out of it.

Interesting take. We will see.
The gator troll strikes again.
 
Likes: JettVol
#44

BigOrangePaddy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2018
Messages
248
Likes
602
#44
Sounds like a few guys who are stuck in the old way of thinking that says time of possession is a key stat.

It is not, as we proved over and over again last year, winning the game while giving away the clock.

...

Old days: control time of possession, because each team is only going to get one, maybe two, at most three real chances to score all game long. Most possessions will end in a punt. The longer you hold the ball, the better your chances at getting one of those rare shots at the end zone.

Those were the days when final scores were like 21-14 or 14-10.

Those days are gone. A typical Tennessee game since Josh Heupel arrived is a shootout with 50, 60, even 80 total points by the two teams combined.

It is no longer time of possession. it is now breaking serve. Scoring more faithfully than the other guy each time you get the ball.

Funny how many of the talking heads on the sports shows still haven't figured out that paradigm shift in the game.

Time is possession is important because it wears down the opposing defense and breaks their spirit.

Heupel's offensive philosophy is different though. It is to just wear out the defense quickly and confused them as well as catch them out of position by going as fast as humanly possible on offense.

Two different ways to beat a defense.
 
#45

VFL-82-JP

Bleedin' Orange...
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
17,813
Likes
42,681
#45
Time is possession is important because it wears down the opposing defense and breaks their spirit.

Heupel's offensive philosophy is different though. It is to just wear out the defense quickly and confused them as well as catch them out of position by going as fast as humanly possible on offense.

Two different ways to beat a defense.
There's only one way to beat a defense. Score.

You can do that fast, as we do, or slow, like Kentucky. But at the end of the series, you're going to have 7, or 3, or 0 points. You beat the defense by getting 7. That demoralizes them and breaks their spirit far more than any time of possession stat.

Go Vols!
 
#46

BigOrangePaddy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2018
Messages
248
Likes
602
#46
There's only one way to beat a defense. Score.

You can do that fast, as we do, or slow, like Kentucky. But at the end of the series, you're going to have 7, or 3, or 0 points. You beat the defense by getting 7. That demoralizes them and breaks their spirit far more than any time of possession stat.

Go Vols!

You missed my point completely.

TOP is about wearing a defense out so that scoring is the by product. We are talking about two different ways to beat a defense physically and mentally.

As they say....there are a thousand ways to build a house and TOP dominance is only one if them.
 
Likes: tobybeast
#47

VFL-82-JP

Bleedin' Orange...
Joined
Jan 17, 2015
Messages
17,813
Likes
42,681
#47
You missed my point completely.

TOP is about wearing a defense out so that scoring is the by product. We are talking about two different ways to beat a defense physically and mentally.

As they say....there are a thousand ways to build a house and TOP dominance is only one if them.
I didn't miss your point. I just believe it is irrelevant. Scoring is how you beat a defense. Scoring 7, not 3. Make them feel impotent. That is THE way to demoralize them.

I'll show you what I mean: say your defense is on the field for 8 full minutes in a single drive. And at the end of that drive, the opponent is on the 3 yard line, trying to punch the ball through. And the lads stop them. On first down. On second down. On third down. And on fourth down.

Do you think that defense leaves the field with a broken spirit, because the clock says 8 minutes passed? Hell, no! They're amped. They are juiced. They're very proud of themselves, and would be happy to go back in and do it again (after a breather).

There's one way to beat a defense: score.
 
Last edited:
Likes: Jake Tate
#48

LakeMaryFLVol

been seen jacked up on testosterone and moonshine
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
6,178
Likes
6,372
#48
Few guys on SECN talking just said Florida out talents us at most positions. Just haven’t been able to put it together.

Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Said we will stack the box to stop the run and leave AR easy options 1 on 1 to make passes.


Their plan is to run, slow the game down to take the crowd out of it.

Interesting take. We will see.
I am very concerned about their speed at running back and also backs in passing game. They have gashed us for years on that stupid wheel route and quick slants by backs too.
 
#49

Jake Tate

Drive-By Expert
Joined
Jul 11, 2008
Messages
8,403
Likes
6,490
#49
Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Interesting take. We will see.
that’s a two sided coin. We have low time of possession bc we break big plays a lot and run a very very quick offense, the quickest in football. Also, it’s funny that they forgot to mention that we have a top 5 scoring offense.

Whatever, WGWTFA on Saturday.
 
#50

Smokeyone

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 28, 2016
Messages
824
Likes
1,026
#50
Few guys on SECN talking just said Florida out talents us at most positions. Just haven’t been able to put it together.

Said Florida will run the ball with success to limit our possessions. Said TN has one of the lowest time of possession already in all of FBS.

Said we will stack the box to stop the run and leave AR easy options 1 on 1 to make passes.


Their plan is to run, slow the game down to take the crowd out of it.

Interesting take. We will see.
It makes sense. And honestly if they can score then it might work. But if they get down by 10 or more in the 1st they will be forced to get out of that mindset.
 

VN Store




Top