SEC projections

#1
volssam

volssam

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#1
Friend emailed me this this morning so not sure where exactly its from. Perhaps CFN? Havent checked. Thoughts?

Way-too-early college football point spread projections
Below you'll find projected lines for every SEC game. Anything look off? Or way off? Feel free to leave comments or criticisms below. It goes without saying that we'll have some difference of opinion.

Projected standings if the favorite won every game:

EAST
Georgia 7-1
South Carolina 6-2
Florida 5-3
Tennessee 4-4
Missouri 2-6
Vanderbilt 2-6
Kentucky 0-8

WEST
LSU 8-0
Alabama 7-1
Mississippi State 5-3
Auburn 4-4
Arkansas 4-4
Texas A&M 2-6
Ole Miss 0-8

**********************************************

WEEK 1
South Carolina -10 at Vanderbilt

WEEK 2
Georgia -3 at Missouri
Florida -2.5 at Texas A&M
Auburn at Mississippi State -1.5

WEEK 3
Alabama -3.5 at Arkansas
Florida at Tennessee pk

WEEK 4
LSU -7.5 at Auburn
Kentucky at Florida -24
Vanderbilt at Georgia -17
Missouri at South Carolina -11

WEEK 5
Tennessee at Georgia -12
South Carolina -17 at Kentucky
Arkansas -2.5 at Texas A&M
Ole Miss at Alabama -30

WEEK 6
Arkansas at Auburn -1
LSU -4 at Florida
Mississippi State -11.5 at Kentucky
Vanderbilt at Missouri -10
Texas A&M -4 at Ole Miss
Georgia at South Carolina -4

WEEK 7
Kentucky at Arkansas -24.5
South Carolina at LSU -10
Alabama -13 at Missouri
Auburn -7 at Ole Miss
Florida -6 at Vanderbilt
Tennessee at Mississippi State -3.5

WEEK 8
South Carolina at Florida -2.5
Georgia -17.5 at Kentucky
Auburn -4 at Vanderbilt
LSU -11.5 at Texas A&M
Alabama -12.5 at Tennessee

WEEK 9
Texas A&M at Auburn -9
Ole Miss at Arkansas -23
Florida vs. Georgia* -2
Kentucky at Missouri -17
Mississippi State at Alabama -18
Tennessee at South Carolina -13

WEEK 10
Missouri at Florida -9.5
Ole Miss at Georgia -24.5
Vanderbilt -4 at Kentucky
Alabama at LSU -3
Texas A&M at Mississippi State -6

WEEK 11
Georgia -1.5 at Auburn
Mississippi State at LSU -20
Vanderbilt -1.5 at Ole Miss
Texas A&M at Alabama -21
Arkansas at South Carolina -5
Missouri at Tennessee -6

WEEK 12
Ole Miss at LSU -31
Tennessee -1 at Vanderbilt
Arkansas -1 at Mississippi State

WEEK 13
LSU -3.5 at Arkansas
Mississippi State -7.5 at Ole Miss
Missouri at Texas A&M -2.5
Auburn at Alabama -16.5
Kentucky at Tennessee -20
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#2
#2
Personally I think the two biggest problems are we should have a bigger spread over vandy. And the spread they have with s car over us is too high. They have them beating us by more than UGA or bama.

I think s car is an extremely winnable game for us. I think we pick off either them or UGA.
 
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#3
#3
Interesting.....make sure this comes back up before the season to see the results vs. the predictions.
 
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#4
#4
I also found the USCe vs the GA/AL spread interesting.

Maybe they are thinking Coach Sal will have something to do with keeping the AL game/score closer.
 
#5
#5
The Vandy spread is nothing more than a cruel joke IMO.
 
#8
#8
I think i'd take Tennessee and the points in both the Georgia game and SC game. That's too many points.
 
#9
#9
Cartervol said:
I think i'd take Tennessee and the points in both the Georgia game and SC game. That's too many points.
Click to expand...

It is amazing the spread between UT v. Ga/Bama/SC. I don't buy it. I don't think UT has three losses by basically two touchdowns each.

On the flip side, I know the spread of UT v. Vandy/KY is too small.

I am glad to see that others see UT v. UF being a toss up. That generally leans in our favor as we are (rightfully so) undervalued and they are (wrongfully so) overvalued.

The only game that I see as being right on, is UT v. Mizzou.
 
#13
#13
The more I read the original post, the less sense it makes. They have us 13 pt underdogs to USCe. They have KY as 17 pt underdogs to USCe, but 20 pt underdogs to us.

Is it just me or doesn't it seem that if USCe is suppose to beat us that badly, they should in turn beat KY worse than we do?
 
#15
#15
BaldBiker said:
The more I read the original post, the less sense it makes. They have us 13 pt underdogs to USCe. They have KY as 17 pt underdogs to USCe, but 20 pt underdogs to us.

Is it just me or doesn't it seem that if USCe is suppose to beat us that badly, they should in turn beat KY worse than we do?
Click to expand...

alot of it has to do when it is in the season and where it is played and who they play before and after specific games I guess.
 
#16
#16
If I gambled I would put money on the MSU, USCe, and UGA games. I am fairly confident UT will beat the spread on at least 2 of the 3.
 
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#17
#17
DjCrenshaw said:
alot of it has to do when it is in the season and where it is played and who they play before and after specific games I guess.
Click to expand...

I guess. And probably factors in that after last year, there is going to be the vengence factor in our game vs KY.
 
#18
#18
I don't like these, but I'm not sure I see something that I consistently don't like. But we're not a 13 point dog in Columbia and then a 6 point favorite against Missouri two weeks later. I don't expect a lot from Missouri, but they're not 13 points worse than Carolina on a neutral field. I'm also not convinced we're a 3.5 dog in Starkville. The Vandy, Florida, and Alabama lines seem more reasonable, although they do assume Vandy is decent this year, which I tend to doubt.
 
#19
#19
Here's the website these came from.


Never too early: College football point spread projections for all 798 regular season games | Beyond The Bets

Per the site-
"This is the second straight year we’ve projected point spreads for every single Division I college football game.

We projected lines for 769 games in 2011, and this year the number has swelled to a whopping 798 games thanks to the recent additions of Texas State, UTSA, South Alabama and UMass.
As you might expect, projecting point spreads for close to 800 games three months before kickoff is an imperfect process. So, please accept this little disclaimer, which we sent out last year but is worth repeating:

There are going to be some real stinkers on this list. We did not have the benefit of collaboration, nor did we have fancy numbers or advanced data to help set these lines. While it’s easy to find information on Ohio State and USC, it takes a considerable amount of time to find relevant, useful information on schools like Furman, Samford and Presbyterian."
 
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