Season prediction thread

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Oct. 26: vs. Mercer​

Nov. 3: vs. Northern Kentucky​

Nov. 8: vs. North Florida​

Nov. 12: vs. Rice​

Nov. 17: vs. Tennessee State​

Nov. 20: TBD​

These are the games that lead up to The challenging portion of our schedule. If we don't come out of this stretch undefeated with some seriously goods statistics and win margins, then they'll be weeping and gnashing of teeth around here. That's what I'm talking about.

Me too.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

i apparently didn’t look at my post after editing it. It reads like nonsense. Sorry. There’s chunks missing. “Last year’s climb doesn’t happen in the first month without beating Baylor.” “None of the top ten will have started playing teams beyond OOC”.

I tried my best to decipher it lol.

Baylor was mid free fall and ranked 13th when we beat them, I’m assuming Houston will once again probably be a Top 5-10 team so that would be an even better win than the Baylor win.

As for OOC, that’s the same deal as last year, all anyone plays that first month is OOC games.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Kentucky went from 23 to 4 in the first month last year, Marquette went from 18 to 5, Tennessee went from 12 to 3, Auburn went from 11 to 2…all of those were 7-0 or 8-0 starts, if Tennessee were to go 9-0 with a win over Houston I would bet a large sum of money they’ll be ranked in the Top 5.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

I tried my best to decipher it lol.

Baylor was mid free fall and ranked 13th when we beat them, I’m assuming Houston will once again probably be a Top 5-10 team so that would be an even better win than the Baylor win.

As for OOC, that’s the same deal as last year, all anyone plays that first month is OOC games.

I agree on Houston. I assume they’ll be top five.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Kentucky went from 23 to 4 in the first month last year, Marquette went from 18 to 5, Tennessee went from 12 to 3, Auburn went from 11 to 2…all of those were 7-0 or 8-0 starts, if Tennessee were to go 9-0 with a win over Houston I would bet a large sum of money they’ll be ranked in the Top 5.

My point is not about what some team with some schedule some year can do. My point is that we’ll start 17-20, play no one and then play a very experienced (possibly top ranked) team as our way into the top five. If we go undefeated through Vegas, I agree that we’ll be top five. I don’t think that’s likely.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Oct. 26: vs. Mercer​

Nov. 3: vs. Northern Kentucky​

Nov. 8: vs. North Florida​

Nov. 12: vs. Rice​

Nov. 17: vs. Tennessee State​

Nov. 20: TBD​

These are the games that lead up to The challenging portion of our schedule. If we don't come out of this stretch undefeated with some seriously goods statistics and win margins, then they'll be weeping and gnashing of teeth around here. That's what I'm talking about.

I think that your dates are off by a game. Duke is 10/26. TN State is 11/20. TBD is the game time v TSU.

 

[cncchris33]

Kentucky went from 23 to 4 in the first month last year, Marquette went from 18 to 5, Tennessee went from 12 to 3, Auburn went from 11 to 2…all of those were 7-0 or 8-0 starts, if Tennessee were to go 9-0 with a win over Houston I would bet a large sum of money they’ll be ranked in the Top 5.

Kentucky went from 22 to 4 on the back of a win over Duke and the hype around Cooper Flagg.

Marquette went from 18 to 5 on the back of wins vs Georgia, Maryland, and Purdue.

A 9-0 start gets Tennessee in the conversation, for sure, but it is far from a certainty because of so many unknown factors. If we beat Houston, then manage to beat a third opponent (a Kansas, St. Johns, Auburn, Bama, Gonzaga type), I think it becomes more likely.

Outside of the obvious caveat of being undefeated, the other main issue will be where we start in the polls, which I expect to be closer to 20 than 10.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

My point is not about what some team with some schedule some year can do. My point is that we’ll start 17-20, play no one and then play a very experienced (possibly top ranked) team as our way into the top five. If we go undefeated through Vegas, I agree that we’ll be top five. I don’t think that’s likely.

We can debate our chances against Houston, but that’s a totally different discussion, this is what I was responding to…

“There’s almost a zero statistical probability that we’ll be in the top five after a month.”

So by your own opinion you’re essentially saying there’s an almost zero statistical probability of beating Houston, which I think is very off base, but JMO

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Kentucky went from 22 to 4 on the back of a win over Duke and the hype around Cooper Flagg.

Marquette went from 18 to 5 on the back of wins vs Georgia, Maryland, and Purdue.

A 9-0 start gets Tennessee in the conversation, for sure, but it is far from a certainty because of so many unknown factors. If we beat Houston, then manage to beat a third opponent (a Kansas, St. Johns, Auburn, Bama, Gonzaga type), I think it becomes more likely.

Outside of the obvious caveat of being undefeated, the other main issue will be where we start in the polls, which I expect to be closer to 20 than 10.

Neither Maryland or Georgia were ranked teams, so what’s different about them verse us beating Rutgers, Syracuse and a TBD 3rd P5 team as well? Houston and Purdue would be a wash in both scenarios.

 

[cncchris33]

Neither Maryland or Georgia were ranked teams, so what’s different about them verse us beating Rutgers, Syracuse and a TBD 3rd P5 team as well? Houston and Purdue would be a wash in both scenarios.

A month into the season, Maryland was 8-1 and a team receiving votes in the polls. Georgia was 8-1 with a win over #22 St. Johns and receiving votes in the polls.

Just because they weren't ranked doesn't mean they weren't good teams. And you have to view their respective profiles in the same timeframe that you also tout Marquette's rise to #5. Both were undefeated outside of the single liss to Marquette.

If Syracuse and Rutgers are both 8-1 a month in, that only helps Tennessee's case for a top-5 ranking.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

A month into the season, Maryland was 8-1 and a team receiving votes in the polls. Georgia was 8-1 with a win over #22 St. Johns and receiving votes in the polls.

Just because they weren't ranked doesn't mean they weren't good teams. And you have to view their respective profiles in the same timeframe that you also tout Marquette's rise to #5. Both were undefeated outside of the single liss to Marquette.

If Syracuse and Rutgers are both 8-1 a month in, that only helps Tennessee's case for a top-5 ranking.

Sure, if they’re 7-2 I don’t think it changes much…I don’t think you’ll find a preseason Top 20 team from last year that went undefeated the first month, with a Top 5 win, and wasn’t ranked Top 5 after that first month…maybe you will, but I didn’t see one. Heck as pointed out Kentucky went from 22 to 4 for 1 Top 5 win and then a whole bunch of wins over crap teams, Tennessee’s resume would clearly be better.

 

[cncchris33]

Sure, if they’re 7-2 I don’t think it changes much…I don’t think you’ll find a preseason Top 20 team from last year that went undefeated the first month, with a Top 5 win, and wasn’t ranked Top 5 after that first month…maybe you will, but I didn’t see one. Heck as pointed out Kentucky went from 22 to 4 for 1 Top 5 win and then a whole bunch of wins over crap teams, Tennessee’s resume would clearly be better.

Only thing I'll add in the context of your UK example is that they immediately vaulted to #9 just solely on the Duke wins. After that, they didn't have far to go. A lot of voters are easily swayed to make large swings in votes early on and beating the Duke hype machine played a role in that for them. I don't think Tennessee gets that same opportunity or benefit of doubt. Maybe Houston is viewed as similar quality, but just based on historical perception, I'd doubt it.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Only thing I'll add in the context of your UK example is that they immediately vaulted to #9 just solely on the Duke wins. After that, they didn't have far to go. A lot of voters are easily swayed to make large swings in votes early on and beating the Duke hype machine played a role in that for them. I don't think Tennessee gets that same opportunity or benefit of doubt. Maybe Houston is viewed as similar quality, but just based on historical perception, I'd doubt it.

Duke was preseason #7, Houston is a pretty unanimous preseason #1, at worst Top 2…I would think that win would warrant a similar, if not even more hype.

 

[cncchris33]

Duke was preseason #7, Houston is a pretty unanimous preseason #1, at worst Top 2…I would think that win would warrant a similar, if not even more hype.

I actually agree in a vacuum. I'm just talking about media perception, the fawning over Cooper Flagg, etc. Houston might actually be a better win, but will it get the same juice that a UK over Duke win did with voters? That's the unknown I guess. I hope we get to see it come to fruition.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I actually agree in a vacuum. I'm just talking about media perception, the fawning over Cooper Flagg, etc. Houston might actually be a better win, but will it get the same juice that a UK over Duke win did with voters? That's the unknown I guess. I hope we get to see it come to fruition.

I agree on the whole Duke perception, and normally would agree…I just think Houston likely is viewed as a much better team and much more hyped than Duke was last year, especially early on considering how young they were.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

We can debate our chances against Houston, but that’s a totally different discussion, this is what I was responding to…

“There’s almost a zero statistical probability that we’ll be in the top five after a month.”

So by your own opinion you’re essentially saying there’s an almost zero statistical probability of beating Houston, which I think is very off base, but JMO

Reverend Fumbles has left the chat.

 

[livefaith]

I think that your dates are off by a game. Duke is 10/26. TN State is 11/20. TBD is the game time v TSU.

Could be an old schedule that I'm looking at. I just didn't see any serious games for the first five or six. I think Duke is a exhibition right?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Could be an old schedule that I'm looking at. I just didn't see any serious games for the first five or six. I think Duke is a exhibition right?

Yes. Duke doesn’t count except for discussion purposes. Experimenting with lineups, player development, and court time is the primary objective for that exhibition.