SDS picks us to go 9-3...

#1

marcusluvsvols

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#1
9 and 3 with a 2nd place finish in the East and a win over the gators. New years 6 bowl and national relevance would surely follow...

I am still at 8-4 with a win over FU or the Pups and a loss to somebody we should beat like USCjr....which would be a great season and progress towards us having a shot at the East again every year. I will be very happy with an 8-4 season with us playing at both the gators and chickens..

9 and 3 is surely possible though...if we are really wearing orange colored glasses and avoid injuries at key positions 10and2 is actually possible albeit very, very unlikely with the relative strength of LSU, UK, USCjr, Pitt, UGA, and Bama ALL likely to be ranked in the top 25 when we play them. Heupel would win SEC coach of the year if somehow we made it thru that murderers row with only 2 losses while starting the season ranked just outside the top 25 at 26th....it would require 4 upsets.

The SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for Tennessee football in 2022
 
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#3
#3
9 and 3 with a 2nd place finish in the East and a win over the gators. New years 6 bowl and national relevance would surely follow...

I am still at 8-4 with a win over FU or the Pups and a loss to somebody we should beat like USCjr....which would be a great season and progress towards us having a shot at the East again every year. I will be very happy with an 8-4 season with us playing at both the gators and chickens..

9 and 3 is surely possible though...if we are really wearing orange colored glasses and avoid injuries at key positions 10and2 is actually possible albeit very, very unlikely with the relative strength of LSU, UK, USCjr, Pitt, UGA, and Bama ALL likely to be ranked in the top 25 when we play them. Heupel would win SEC coach of the year if somehow we made it thru that murderers row with only 2 losses while starting the season ranked just outside the top 25 at 26th....it would require 4 upsets.
The only two games I would consider “upsets” are bama and uga. Uk and SC are not powerhouses. LSU and Uf are down plus Pitt will be a middle of the road acc without Pickett and the Wr transfer
 
#4
#4
I can't be satisfied losing to someone we should beat. The "right guy" will win almost all the "should wins" and win more than his share of the "shouldn't wins".
So if we don't play to near perfection you think we have the wrong coach? I think we have the right guy for right now. I hope he stays for a long long time. I can not remember a coach that would meet your standard for a keeper.
 
#5
#5
So if we don't play to near perfection you think we have the wrong coach? I think we have the right guy for right now. I hope he stays for a long long time. I can not remember a coach that would meet your standard for a keeper.
You might want to re-read.... more slowly. "More than his share"... could mean 30% of those games... not necessarily 80%.

If you think it is acceptable to routinely lose games that you should have won... then some incompetent like Butch Jones is definitely your guy.

Yes The standard needs to be high unless your target is mediocrity.
 
#7
#7
In response to Stj18:

In year 2? We don't have SEC talent even 2 deep across the 11 positions of offense and 11 defense. We just aren't there yet after playing last season with 65 to 70 scholarship players instead of 85 like every other SEC team. Bama and UGA have backups...their 2nd 22 players...who average more stars out of HS than our starters do. On paper FU and LSU still significantly ahead of us talent wise as well.

As an unranked team playing 5 certain ranked teams...USCjr may or may not be ranked higher than us when we play them...i guess we SHOULD go 7 and 5 or maybe 6 and 6....so this season i do think we will exceed the objective and realistic expectations for this team based on ranking and vegas lines...by simply going 8-4. We may see 7-5 and still beat 1 more team that outranks us at kickoff than we SHOULD beat.

We are exactly 1 season removed from 3-7....and went 4-8 losing 8 games for the only time in the history of UT football the season before that. Lmao....yall kill me with these expectations of 9 and 10 win seasons just because we dominated 30 years ago in the 90s....before any of our players or my 21yo son were ever born. My adult college grad son has never seen Tenn win 10 games...out of 13. Never. Thats the reality of where we started when Coach Heup took over. The only folks who remember UT being a feared program that was always ranked are in their 40s like me or older.

CJH has what it takes to make us interesting and exciting with a chance at the East every year. I believe that...despite BVSyndrome. Even with UGA being preseason a top 5 team every season lately. His high scoring offense rivaled only by Lincoln Riley gives us a punchers chance in any game.

We are super lucky to have Coach IMO...great coaches were not just beating down the door to come to the Hill where we play Bama every season just for fun and expectations are sky high. This was a home run hire IMO.
 
#8
#8
The only two games I would consider “upsets” are bama and uga. Uk and SC are not powerhouses. LSU and Uf are down plus Pitt will be a middle of the road acc without Pickett and the Wr transfer

Every single team you just named except maybe...maybe...USCjr will be ranked higher than us by both the AP and the Coaches poll of other P5 programs. 5 out of 6 for sure.

By the very definition of an upset....if we beat any team ranked higher than us it is an upset. To beat Bama or the pups is to beat a top3 team...which is a huge upset. We are Tennessee...i get it. I live and bleed and breathe orange man. Have since birth 45 years ago. Until we finish at least a couple seasons in a row as a ranked team...in the top 25...we are gonna be underdogs to most of our SEC schedule. Thats what it means to play in the SEC...Vandy is the only JV squad and even they beat us a couple times in the last 10 years which is freaking humiliating. Those days are over though.

Btw...Kentucky has gone to 6 straight bowl games....won the last 4 of them...and is ranked 11th to start this season last i saw....glad we get them at home this year.
 
#9
#9
I have said all along the floor for this team is 7-5, ceiling is 10-2...most likely outcome is 8-4.
With our RB and LB situation, I don't see making it through the season without depth at those issues being a factor.
 
#12
#12
Every single team you just named except maybe...maybe...USCjr will be ranked higher than us by both the AP and the Coaches poll of other P5 programs. 5 out of 6 for sure.

By the very definition of an upset....if we beat any team ranked higher than us it is an upset. To beat Bama or the pups is to beat a top3 team...which is a huge upset. We are Tennessee...i get it. I live and bleed and breathe orange man. Have since birth 45 years ago. Until we finish at least a couple seasons in a row as a ranked team...in the top 25...we are gonna be underdogs to most of our SEC schedule. Thats what it means to play in the SEC...Vandy is the only JV squad and even they beat us a couple times in the last 10 years which is freaking humiliating. Those days are over though.

Btw...Kentucky has gone to 6 straight bowl games....won the last 4 of them...and is ranked 11th to start this season last i saw....glad we get them at home this year.
An upset is more like beating a team that you are heavily favored to lose to. If the line is a 1 possession game or less, it's not an upset if u win. LSU, UF, & JR aren't ranked ahead of us in the preseason poll. So assuming we handle our business we should be favorite against all 3. KY could be ranked higher than us and nobody would think it's an upset if we won because we typically beat them no matter what their record or our record is. Upsets would be UGA & Bama because of the point spread margin going into the game. Those are the only 2 that are obviously better than us. This doesn't mean we won't lose a toss up or 2, just means, those are the only to W's that would be upsets.
 
#14
#14
I think 9-3 is a reasonable hope as long as Hooker stays healthy.
10-2 would be wildly successful - Heupel for CotY
8-4 would be simply because we goofed somewhere.
7-5 is certainly possible but would be disappointing.
I dont honestly see how we would go 6-6 or below as long as we have Hooker healthy.
 
#15
#15
In response to Stj18:

In year 2? We don't have SEC talent even 2 deep across the 11 positions of offense and 11 defense.
I would disagree with that and especially when you don't look at it in a vacuum. Every team in the SEC not named UGA or Bama has question marks.

And... depth is a factor in what games you should/should not win.

We just aren't there yet after playing last season with 65 to 70 scholarship players instead of 85 like every other SEC team.
That was a bit of hyperbole. You can go back and look for yourself but including the Covid seniors UT had over 80 guys on scholarship last fall. They were still at a disadvantage because the Covid rule allowed others to carry more than 85. But UT will be around 80 or just above this fall. That isn't crippling.

Bama and UGA have backups...their 2nd 22 players...who average more stars out of HS than our starters do. On paper FU and LSU still significantly ahead of us talent wise as well.
UF is close to the same. Not sure about LSU due to their roster changes.

Who across college football is NOT like that compared to Bama and UGA? I don't expect to beat either. I would like to see UT compete better. But UT really doesn't have the quality or depth to be expected to beat them.

As an unranked team playing 5 certain ranked teams...
LOL... Pre-season AP and Coaches rankings are all but arbitrary. They're usually more a reflection of the previous year as anything else. FOURTEEN of last year's preseason AP top 25 teams finished unranked.

USCjr may or may not be ranked higher than us when we play them...i guess we SHOULD go 7 and 5 or maybe 6 and 6....so this season i do think we will exceed the objective and realistic expectations for this team based on ranking and vegas lines...by simply going 8-4. We may see 7-5 and still beat 1 more team that outranks us at kickoff than we SHOULD beat.
I think we have to get into the season to know what UT has and what the opponents have. I think we have clearer vision on some teams than others. But I do not accept your premise that UT "should go" 7-5 or 6-6". I see no reason to believe that. You mentioned "talent on paper" before. "On paper", UT has as much talent as UF. They have significantly MORE than Pitt, Vandy, UK, USCe, MU, 3 OOC's... That's 8 wins just against those that the recruiting sites say have less talent.

We are exactly 1 season removed from 3-7....and went 4-8 losing 8 games for the only time in the history of UT football the season before that.
Coaching incompetence means a lot in college football. Coaches who far exceed their talent are very rare. They very seldom sustain success. However LOTS of coaches completely underperform their talent.

Lmao....yall kill me with these expectations of 9 and 10 win seasons just because we dominated 30 years ago in the 90s....before any of our players or my 21yo son were ever born.
Who gave that for a reason? I didn't. I haven't said 10 wins either. I think UT should beat the 8 teams mentioned above that according to the recruiting sites have less talent. I think they should beat an equally talented (on paper) UF team this year due in large measure to the problems and lack of depth THEY have. LSU is an enigma. They could be as good as their talent or as bad as their chaos has been... and Coach O has somewhat of a history of signing overrated players.

Thats the reality of where we started when Coach Heup took over. The only folks who remember UT being a feared program that was always ranked are in their 40s like me or older.
Which has absolutely nothing to do with expectations and hopes for the upcoming season.

It could definitely go sideways with injuries at the wrong positions. No one can account for that. But that again is true of every program in America outside of Bama, UGA, OSU, and Clemson.

CJH has what it takes to make us interesting and exciting with a chance at the East every year. I believe that...despite BVSyndrome. Even with UGA being preseason a top 5 team every season lately. His high scoring offense rivaled only by Lincoln Riley gives us a punchers chance in any game.

We are super lucky to have Coach IMO...great coaches were not just beating down the door to come to the Hill where we play Bama every season just for fun and expectations are sky high. This was a home run hire IMO.
Great coaches, coach great. They don't lose lots of games to teams they should have beaten and when they have more talent. They challenge better teams. This team should not go 6-6 or 7-5... and it will be a big concern if it does. Lots of folks attacked me when I said similar things about Jones and Pruitt for that matter. But the right coach will be the difference in those 50/50 range games.

I am more encouraged by Heupel than I have been really in all my years following the Vols closely... about 30. I got to the point of expecting Fulmer to choke a game or two and always be outclassed by Spurrier. I think CJH has first and foremost the exact right kind of leadership. I think he's a very bright coach as well.

All of that said... the bar should NEVER be lowered for ANYONE.
 
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#16
#16
I can't be satisfied losing to someone we should beat. The "right guy" will win almost all the "should wins" and win more than his share of the "shouldn't wins".
It's hard to win all the ones you're supposed to in the SEC. It's a bar brawl every week. You add depth issues and it's almost a certainty we will loose one we shouldn't. 8-4 would be a nice season.
 
#18
#18
It's hard to win all the ones you're supposed to in the SEC. It's a bar brawl every week. You add depth issues and it's almost a certainty. 8-4 would be a nice season.
I'm kind of stuck between 8 and 9 games. But I think folks are missing the point. Butch assembled a good roster. He lost several games he shouldn't have lose through being pretty much incompetent on gameday. I don't remember a game he won where the other team had a significant talent advantage.

The "right" guy will win almost all of the ones they should win (not all but losses should be rare)... and then they'll pick off some of the ones they aren't expected to win. Then over time... the goal is to build a program/roster with more "should wins" and very few long shots. I think UGA and Bama are long shots as we stand today. Particularly Bama. I just don't see any of the others as long shots right now.
 
#22
#22
I would disagree with that and especially when you don't look at it in a vacuum. Every team in the SEC not named UGA or Bama has question marks.

And... depth is a factor in what games you should/should not win.

That was a bit of hyperbole. You can go back and look for yourself but including the Covid seniors UT had over 80 guys on scholarship last fall. They were still at a disadvantage because the Covid rule allowed others to carry more than 85. But UT will be around 80 or just above this fall. That isn't crippling.

UF is close to the same. Not sure about LSU due to their roster changes.

Who across college football is NOT like that compared to Bama and UGA? I don't expect to beat either. I would like to see UT compete better. But UT really doesn't have the quality or depth to be expected to beat them.

LOL... Pre-season AP and Coaches rankings are all but arbitrary. They're usually more a reflection of the previous year as anything else. FOURTEEN of last year's preseason AP top 25 teams finished unranked.

I think we have to get into the season to know what UT has and what the opponents have. I think we have clearer vision on some teams than others. But I do not accept your premise that UT "should go" 7-5 or 6-6". I see no reason to believe that. You mentioned "talent on paper" before. "On paper", UT has as much talent as UF. They have significantly MORE than Pitt, Vandy, UK, USCe, MU, 3 OOC's... That's 8 wins just against those that the recruiting sites say have less talent.

Coaching incompetence means a lot in college football. Coaches who far exceed their talent are very rare. They very seldom sustain success. However LOTS of coaches completely underperform their talent.

Who gave that for a reason? I didn't. I haven't said 10 wins either. I think UT should beat the 8 teams mentioned above that according to the recruiting sites have less talent. I think they should beat an equally talented (on paper) UF team this year due in large measure to the problems and lack of depth THEY have. LSU is an enigma. They could be as good as their talent or as bad as their chaos has been... and Coach O has somewhat of a history of signing overrated players.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with expectations and hopes for the upcoming season.

It could definitely go sideways with injuries at the wrong positions. No one can account for that. But that again is true of every program in America outside of Bama, UGA, OSU, and Clemson.


Great coaches, coach great. They don't lose lots of games to teams they should have beaten and when they have more talent. They challenge better teams. This team should not go 6-6 or 7-5... and it will be a big concern if it does. Lots of folks attacked me when I said similar things about Jones and Pruitt for that matter. But the right coach will be the difference in those 50/50 range games.

I am more encouraged by Heupel than I have been really in all my years following the Vols closely... about 30. I got to the point of expecting Fulmer to choke a game or two and always be outclassed by Spurrier. I think CJH has first and foremost the exact right kind of leadership. I think he's a very bright coach as well.

All of that said... the bar should NEVER be lowered for ANYONE.
Depends on the position. I think we have significantly more talent at the skill positions than Pitt and Kentucky. OL and DL and LB not so much.
 
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#23
#23
Just about every team loses a game they shouldn't each year...even Alabama. So anyone saying...you "can't see that happening"...must not watch college football.

I can definitely see us losing to a Pitt or SC. I think we have a great shot of beating Florida despite the last 16 years...and I think Alabama will be down to the wire.

I think we have the team to give anyone a game on a good day. I think the least winnable is @ Georgia.

I would not be surprised to see us beat Florida and even Alabama at home...yet lose early @ Pitt and then @ SC.

9 and 3 with a 2nd place finish in the East and a win over the gators. New years 6 bowl and national relevance would surely follow...

^^^ This is exactly what I'm hoping for.
 
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#25
#25
9-3 with a bowl win to get to 10 wins would feel like a major breakthrough after the last 15 seasons of at best a few 8-4 years with Butch that included us losing some terrible games. Heupel doing that in year 2 with the ncaa investigation hanging over this program should move him up as a top tier coach in the sec behind only those who have won championships or gone to the playoffs
 
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