SC Fans wishful thinking.

#51
#51
I'm a SC fan and I think the Vols will take this one. UT is much better this year...but, so is SC and it could be a good one.

The reason SC fans are so optimistic is because of the way our offense has played since Newton has taken over. Truly, SC could be the poster child for misleading stats. While we don't put up monster numbers, our offense has been extremely efficient under Newton, averaging about 3 pts per possession in SEC play. In contrast, Tennessee averages just over 2 pts per possession. Its hard to believe, but, SC's offense should be better than UT's.

Having said that, our defensive stats are misleading, too. Our offense takes so long to score which shortens the game, padding our defensive stats. Our defense is giving up just over 2pts per possession. About the same as UT, except you guys have played tougher offensive units thus far.

There is one matchup, though, that I think may bode poorly for us. On defense, when we do have some success its because we have been able to rush the passer. UT is exceptional at providing protection for Ainge and that's going to be a real problem. I don't see us stopping UT because of this.

So, all in all, this game could be a close one after considering home field advantage for SC. But, I sure as hell hope SC finds a way to win so I don't have to sit through UT chants of "Whose your Daddy" like last time. :hmm:
 
#52
#52
This game scares the hell out of me. I HATE Spurrier because he almost has Fulmers number. Last year made me sick to my stomach. You guys will give us all we can handle but I think we pull it out late in the forth.

I will be rooting for you guys the rest of the year though. Spurrier will beat the Gators.
 
#53
#53
I repeat, South Carolina is no better than they were last season, and maybe just a hair less good.

And I'm probably opening up flood gates here, but a single season's end ranking in pass D STILL means nothing until you see the competition. Pass efficiency defense is a much better stat, and people like Phil Steele and others do a good job with it.
 
#54
#54
Cock-o-mite said:
The reason SC fans are so optimistic is because of the way our offense has played since Newton has taken over. Truly, SC could be the poster child for misleading stats. While we don't put up monster numbers, our offense has been extremely efficient under Newton, averaging about 3 pts per possession in SEC play. In contrast, Tennessee averages just over 2 pts per possession. Its hard to believe, but, SC's offense should be better than UT's.

:hmm:
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I seem to remember UGA hving the best scoring defense in the NCAA a few weeks ago, too. You have to look at the competition that those stats were built on. UK and VU aren't what I'd call outstanding defensive teams. Plus USC has yet to see an offense that compares to UT.
 
#55
#55
Cock-o-mite said:
The reason SC fans are so optimistic is because of the way our offense has played since Newton has taken over. Truly, SC could be the poster child for misleading stats. While we don't put up monster numbers, our offense has been extremely efficient under Newton, averaging about 3 pts per possession in SEC play. In contrast, Tennessee averages just over 2 pts per possession. Its hard to believe, but, SC's offense should be better than UT's.
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S. Carolina has played the 12th, 30th, 49th, 66th, and 119th total defenses for the 5 SEC teams you've played.

Tennessee has played the 12th, 13th, and 28th total defenses for the 3 SEC teams we've played.

See guys, I can find misleading stats as good as the next guy, but if you take these team rankings as they are without digging a little deeper, you'll be mislead.
 
#56
#56
SC has lost to Auburn and Georgia...Georgia now also has 2 SEC losses, with one additional likely to come this weekend against Florida.

Florida leads the SEC East, TN is second.

Guess who still has to play them both, and thus controls their own destiny for the SEC E? South Carolina.

IF and it's a big IF, SC was to win out, SC would have head to head tie breakers over FL and TN....

I only bring this up because as much stuff we put in to the SEC E and wanting FL to lose etc...SC's chances at the East are just as realistic, and maybe more so, since they can control their own destiny, SC fans have every right to speculate as they see fit.

Now, having said that, they have an extremely end of the season stretch. TN, FL, ARk, Clemson....and they will be the underdog in all 4.

And if i'm an SC fan, i look at the TN game as the one that is the most likely to win. the other three teams have significant advantages in the running game as opposed to us. they have to go to FL and Clemson...and they get us after an emotional game against Bama. and we all know SOS's record against CPF. ARK would be next...they go to Columbia, and could it possibly be a look ahead game to TN the following week???

If i'm an SC fan, winning two of those 4 is very realistic.

but i'm a TN fan....and this is a game we should win. take care of the ball, and we win. they haven't seen an offense all season like ours, haven't seen WR's like we have, and the only two serious teams they've played all year, they've lost. We beat UGA, Bama and Cal, and played UF to one freakin' point. Sylvelle Newton is a great story but you'll need more than wins over KY and Vandy to get me to buy it. As heroic he was against Auburn, SC still lost. We've been battle tested and more times than not, we've come out on top. This team doesn't panic, and they won't against SC either.

bottom line....once again, we don't get careless with the ball, we win this game. the only way SC beats us is if we help them.
 
#57
#57
I don't find SC fans talking about their chances of winning the east any more absurd than I do hearing all of us talk about our chances to win the east.
 
#58
#58
allvol123 said:
I don't find SC fans talking about their chances of winning the east any more absurd than I do hearing all of us talk about our chances to win the east.
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Except for the fact that S. Carolina has 2 SEC losses, while we have 1 and are tied for 1st. Granted, neither team really has a legit shot, but you have to be insane to say S. Carolina has as good as a shot as us.
 
#59
#59
VolinArizona said:
Except for the fact that S. Carolina has 2 SEC losses, while we have 1 and are tied for 1st. Granted, neither team really has a legit shot, but you have to be insane to say S. Carolina has as good as a shot as us.
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Not had time to look at it all, but what happens if SC beats UF and us? Most likely they control their own destiny, or are there other factors?
 
#60
#60
allvol123 said:
Not had time to look at it all, but what happens if SC beats UF and us? Most likely they control their own destiny, or are there other factors?
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South Carolina has to win out to finish 6-2 in the East. If they beat UF, UT, and Arkansas, then it looks like Florida would be 6-2, we'd be 6-2 (barring our other games, too) and so would South Carolina. Thus, whoever was higher in the BCS would go to the SECCG. Therefore, South Carolina would need either Tennessee or Florida to lose 3 SEC games.
 
#61
#61
VolinArizona said:
South Carolina has to win out to finish 6-2 in the East. If they beat UF, UT, and Arkansas, then it looks like Florida would be 6-2, we'd be 6-2 (barring our other games, too) and so would South Carolina. Thus, whoever was higher in the BCS would go to the SECCG. Therefore, South Carolina would need either Tennessee or Florida to lose 3 SEC games.
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That would only be true if we had beaten each other in a round robin fashion to get to 6-2. If USC owns wins over the two other teams they are tied with, they own the tiebreaker.
 
#62
#62
rwemyss said:
That would only be true if we had beaten each other in a round robin fashion to get to 6-2. If USC owns wins over the two other teams they are tied with, they own the tiebreaker.
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Are you sure? I always thought all it needed were a 3-way tie.
 
#63
#63
rwemyss said:
That would only be true if we had beaten each other in a round robin fashion to get to 6-2. If USC owns wins over the two other teams they are tied with, they own the tiebreaker.
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That's what I was thinking. That is why I don't see SC talking this up as being an absurd thing to do.
 
#65
#65
duckhuntersc said:
Is that just your opinion or do you have some facts to support that statement? At this time last year we were coming off of a 37-14 loss to Bama, and a 48-7 loss to Auburn. The only thing we really lost off of last years team was DB Johnathan Josheph and FS Ko Simpson. So secondary should be our weakness, right...? Well no not really, with todays updated stats from the NCAA, we have the #8 pass defense in the nation. Yeah we had a 1 bad game this year against UGA, but we have made a complete turnaround with Newton at qb. So how do you figure we are not better than last year?
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Here are the facts to support Volinarizona... in 2005, the Cocks were 1-4 against BCS top 50 teams and 6-0 against 50+ teams. In 2006, the Cocks are winless against top 50 teams and 4-0 against 50+ teams and squeaked out a 7 pt win over a I-AA team.

2005 (7-4)
106 Win 45-20
89 Win 44-16
72 Win 14-10
65 Win 35-28
58 Win 24-15
54 Win 16-15
27 Lost 9-13
17 Win 30-22
13 Lost 14-37
9 Lost 7-48
7 Lost 15-17


2006 (5-2)
I-AA Win 27-20
103 Win 45-6
93 Win 15-0
70 Win 31-13
53 Win 24-17
27 Lost 0-18
5 Lost 17-24

75 ?
13 ?
12 ?
11 ?
6?
 
#66
#66
VolinArizona said:
Are you sure? I always thought all it needed were a 3-way tie.
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No, there are several tie-breakers they get to before they invoke the new BCS clause. One is head-to-head among the 3 teams. One other is division record. The reason it got to the point it did in 2003 was that Tenn beat Fla, Fla beat Ga, and Ga beat Tenn.... all 3 teams were tied in division record (they beat each other and then lost to a SEC-West opponent).

Even if Georgia wins the rest of their games, Tennessee stumbles once (to an SEC West team), and Florida only loses to Ga, Florida will go to the SECCG.

Georgia would be 3-2 in the SEC East, while Tenn and Florida would be 4-1. Once a team is eliminated, the tie-break automatically reverts back to a 2-team tie and head-to-head is the first item.
 
#67
#67
rwemyss said:
Yeah. I'm sure. I studied the rules quite closely in 2001 when we were in that 3-way tie with Florida and Georgia.

Here's the link:

http://www.secsports.com/index.php?s=&change_well_id=2&url_article_id=46
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rwemyss, thanks for the info. I stand very corrected.

allvolw3464876, I see your point. SC does, in a sense, control their own destiny in that if they win all 3 of their remaining SEC games, they WILL play in the SECCG. I still feel like, looking at how the teams have played and who they play, Tennessee had a more legitimate chance than SC, but its closer than I originally thought.
 
#68
#68
AZ....it's not "in a sense" at all....they control their own destiny...it's reality. the only two teams that can dictate where they are going in the SEC E is USC and FL.

now, that's something...say USC wins Sat. Night, and they beat Ark....the SEC E comes down to SC's trip to Gainesville....weird huh?

now chances of that happening....slim, real slim. but at this point, it's out there for 'em.
 
#69
#69
jakez4ut said:
AZ....it's not "in a sense" at all....they control their own destiny...it's reality. the only two teams that can dictate where they are going in the SEC E is USC and FL.

now, that's something...say USC wins Sat. Night, and they beat Ark....the SEC E comes down to SC's trip to Gainesville....weird huh?

now chances of that happening....slim, real slim. but at this point, it's out there for 'em.
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I don't think your scenario is as slim as you are saying.

It would not surprise me if USC beat us and Spurrier could very well beat Arky and UF, probable no, but not entirely crazy either.
 
#70
#70
allvol123 said:
I don't think your scenario is as slim as you are saying.

It would not surprise me if USC beat us and Spurrier could very well beat Arky and UF, probable no, but not entirely crazy either.
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i agree...it's not like we're talking about Vandy or KY controlling their own destiny this late in the season....so on that, yeah, it's certainly possible.

but i look at the three teams with a chance at the SEC E and their remaining SEC schedule:
Florida: UGA, Vandy, SC
USC: TN, ARK, UF
TN: SC, LSU, ARK, Vandy, KY

UGA is not what we thought it was....not even close...SC is the only real challenge on UF's schedule.
While it's not out of the questin for SC....those are 3 very tough finishing games in the SEC...two divison leaders, 3 top 15 teams. Slim chances of running that table. Even if they beat us.

and for us...on paper, obviously, ARK and LSU present the biggest challenge. though i'm not calling USC a gimmie either.

At this point, i could see USC winning or losing all three....and the same can be said about us too....
 
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