Saturday’s Coaching was Solid, Not Bold. Execution was…

[casual-observer]

I have a close friend who serves as the DC for a D1 team. While that doesn’t give me any more authority than my couch coach peers on this forum, he’s always trying to explain to me the logic behind coaching decisions. From a coaches perspective, directing the game is all about probabilities. It’s data science in its simplest form - a probabilistic chance that a given play, given the current variables will result in a desired outcome.

The truth about statistics is that, once a play is finished, the chances of its results are always 100%. If the team executes with success then the coach is brilliant. If the team does not execute, the coach ‘played not to lose.’ Which is more or less an accurate statement, too.

In second guessing the last two possessions of downs Saturday but given the parameters: Tennessee’s rushing offense under Hupel has an average ranking of 3rd in the SEC the past four years. Maybe additional weight should have been considered since Georgia’s defense was stuffing the run all day. But statistically, Tennessee should have been able to get close while running the clock out and put the game away.

Perhaps CJH should have trusted a little more on Aguilar’s arm in the final minutes. Four touchdowns and over 350 yards passing says the air game was getting it done. But, the statistically correct calls were made and Tennessee’s players were unable to execute. Probabilities work both ways: Georgia’s defense likely played the stats that Tennessee would try to burn the clock and thus continued their dominance on the line of scrimmage. A bolder move, and one that might have paid big dividends, would have been to keep slinging it. We will never know.

Sure, it would have been nice for Aguilar to air one out to Brazzell one last time and put the game away. But, what if he had been intercepted? The chances of an interception, negating any points and scoring (a 14-10 point swing) were worse than driving down the field, draining the clock, and taking the eight point lead. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Bold plays can make champs or chumps. Remember that SEC championship game when Kirby not-so Smart ran Justin Fields out for the worst fake punt ever? Bold play, bad results. And it happens all the time.

CJH is doing a great job. Tennessee’s team had a preseason composite talent of 16, compared to Georgia’s 1! Heavily banged up on the defense, they put on a Master Class of offense in the first quarter.

Take heart Volunteer fans…the good times are comin’

 

[maryvillenative]

This is NOT what the Nega-Vols want to hear. Hind-sight is always 20/20 and making calls from the couch is easy.

 

[TheVolsFrog]

Yup all about probabilities and the big one being if you weren't up on GA by two scores you probably were going to lose.
The probability that GA scores being down 8 they were going to tie it up and probably win it with as much time was left on the clock(at the time of the GA fumble turnover)
Thing in life called taking a chance, high risk, high reward
Another thing about playing just to probabilities is that you become predictable

Either the way the game is over, we were down men and still hung in there. Just need to finish out the rest of the season strong and hope to get players back on the field.

 

[tennesseekilt]

I have a close friend who serves as the DC for a D1 team. While that doesn’t give me any more authority than my couch coach peers on this forum, he’s always trying to explain to me the logic behind coaching decisions. From a coaches perspective, directing the game is all about probabilities. It’s data science in its simplest form - a probabilistic chance that a given play, given the current variables will result in a desired outcome.

The truth about statistics is that, once a play is finished, the chances of its results are always 100%. If the team executes with success then the coach is brilliant. If the team does not execute, the coach ‘played not to lose.’ Which is more or less an accurate statement, too.

In second guessing the last two possessions of downs Saturday but given the parameters: Tennessee’s rushing offense under Hupel has an average ranking of 3rd in the SEC the past four years. Maybe additional weight should have been considered since Georgia’s defense was stuffing the run all day. But statistically, Tennessee should have been able to get close while running the clock out and put the game away.

Perhaps CJH should have trusted a little more on Aguilar’s arm in the final minutes. Four touchdowns and over 350 yards passing says the air game was getting it done. But, the statistically correct calls were made and Tennessee’s players were unable to execute. Probabilities work both ways: Georgia’s defense likely played the stats that Tennessee would try to burn the clock and thus continued their dominance on the line of scrimmage. A bolder move, and one that might have paid big dividends, would have been to keep slinging it. We will never know.

Sure, it would have been nice for Aguilar to air one out to Brazzell one last time and put the game away. But, what if he had been intercepted? The chances of an interception, negating any points and scoring (a 14-10 point swing) were worse than driving down the field, draining the clock, and taking the eight point lead. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Bold plays can make champs or chumps. Remember that SEC championship game when Kirby not-so Smart ran Justin Fields out for the worst fake punt ever? Bold play, bad results. And it happens all the time.

CJH is doing a great job. Tennessee’s team had a preseason composite talent of 16, compared to Georgia’s 1! Heavily banged up on the defense, they put on a Master Class of offense in the first quarter.

Take heart Volunteer fans…the good times are comin’

I agree completely with this. Even during the game and as frustrating as it was afterwards, I had zero issues with the coaching decisions. I would have done the same thing.

If any of us had been told we would have a chance to win it with a 40-year field goal, we would have taken that in a heartbeat.

 

[volbound1700]

Loss is very frustrating but I am NOT mad or upset with the effort of any of the players or coaches, even the kicker.

 

[Clad in Big Orange]

Heupel played the end of regulation exactly as it worked to end the long streak against AL. This time it ended with 2 mistakes, the false start and the missed kick. I don't blame him for going that route, the Vols methodically drove the ball down to reasonable FG range and ran all the remaining time off, while forcing Kirby to use his timeouts. That should have been the 2nd biggest victory in his tenure.

It will be very interesting to see how he plays this situation out next time. I think we'll be in more end-game situations with this defense struggling.

 

[GAVol]

I wish we’d gotten 10-15 yards closer, but he played the last possession about the way you’d expect any coach to do it and got a 40ish yard game winning FG attempt with no time left.

 

[Gandalf]

What I saw is that if we had been fully healthy, we would have won that game by two TDs. As it is, we scored more on them than we have in over a decade and it was close.

Its clear we are going to have an offensive juggernaut this year if even Kirby cant stop us. If we can get our defensive starters back, we can beat anyone else on our schedule. And yes, we HAVE to get them healthy because everyone will be targeting Ty Redmond for every game going forward.

 

[volbound1700]

Heupel played the end of regulation exactly as it worked to end the long streak against AL. This time it ended with 2 mistakes, the false start and the missed kick. I don't blame him for going that route, the Vols methodically drove the ball down to reasonable FG range and ran all the remaining time off, while forcing Kirby to use his timeouts. That should have been the 2nd biggest victory in his tenure.

It will be very interesting to see how he plays this situation out next time. I think we'll be in more end-game situations with this defense struggling.

Honestly, a 42 yard FG should have been money and the false start really messed it up. I don't want fuss to much at those guys. A lot of things had to go right for Georgia at the end for them to win.

I think the biggest loss was the 2-point conversion. We gave that away too easy. The TD would not have mattered if we could stop that. 2-point conversions are NOT easy and we made it easy for Georgia.

 

[volbound1700]

What I saw is that if we had been fully healthy, we would have won that game by two TDs. As it is, we scored more on them than we have in over a decade and it was close.

Its clear we are going to have an offensive juggernaut this year if even Kirby cant stop us. If we can get our defensive starters back, we can beat anyone else on our schedule. And yes, we HAVE to get them healthy because everyone will be targeting Ty Redmond for every game going forward.

While true, our offense tends to get 2-3 more TDs at home versus the road. We will see. Let's get ready for the rest of the SEC slate and move on.

 

[Tnphil]

UGA played to win....UT played to not lose. Huge difference.

 

[cdb88]

People don't understand the offense won't play the same all year. We are gonna have bad games offensively especially on the road.

 

[Vol_in_NC_1999]

Perhaps CJH should have trusted a little more on Aguilar’s arm in the final minutes. Four touchdowns and over 350 yards passing says the air game was getting it done. But, the statistically correct calls were made and Tennessee’s players were unable to execute. Probabilities work both ways: Georgia’s defense likely played the stats that Tennessee would try to burn the clock and thus continued their dominance on the line of scrimmage. A bolder move, and one that might have paid big dividends, would have been to keep slinging it. We will never know.

I'm not sure this cost us the game. In my opinion (as an expert who never played or coached a down of football lol), we lost game on a combination of factors; what you said above, the missed FG, but third and most importantly the lack of more zone coverage. I think the unwillingness to move away from man-to-man and counter GA with zone weighs more than the former two reasons combined.



Hard to argue with this guy, but that's just me.

 

[MemphisVolFan1978]

We also had a false start on that drive after the recovered fumble. If not for that we likely would have gotten the first down by running 3 times. I was frustrated by that drive, but now that I have had time to process it I get what he was trying to do. Run some clock off by going to the ground game which we have been known to be very good at, go up by 2 scores without enough time for Georgia to score twice. If it had worked many would be calling Josh Heupel a genius. If Joey had thrown an interception many would be asking why we were throwing the ball instead of running.

 

[volbound1700]

We also had a false start on that drive after the recovered fumble. If not for that we likely would have gotten the first down by running 3 times. I was frustrated by that drive, but now that I have had time to process it I get what he was trying to do. Run some clock off by going to the ground game which we have been known to be very good at, go up by 2 scores without enough time for Georgia to score twice. If it had worked many would be calling Josh Heupel a genius. If Joey had thrown an interception many would be asking why we were throwing the ball instead of running.

It wasn't a bad series by Heupel, we just missed the kick. Heupel didn't know we would have false start or bad kick. The only change that I would have done was try to run the play again instead of kicking it. I think Heupel panicked after the mistake and decided to go ahead and kick. Obviously, the kicker's head wasn't in the right place.

Heupel needs to use his time outs more. As crazy as it sounds, a time out to talk to the kicker and calm him down might have been a good idea.

Granted, no matter whatever Heupel did, he would have been questioned about it unless we make the kick.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Yup all about probabilities and the big one being if you weren't up on GA by two scores you probably were going to lose.
The probability that GA scores being down 8 they were going to tie it up and probably win it with as much time was left on the clock(at the time of the GA fumble turnover)

That's really taking it too far, though. If you have a tie game with 2 and a half minutes to go, and the ball, you're the likely winner, not Georgia. Tennessee really did march right down the field and set up a field goal to win it. Yeah, I certainly would prefer to win by 4 touchdowns, but I think Tennessee was the likely winner right up to that field goal miss.

 

[temptn]

.
"Statistics don't apply to individuals"
.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

I have a close friend who serves as the DC for a D1 team. While that doesn’t give me any more authority than my couch coach peers on this forum, he’s always trying to explain to me the logic behind coaching decisions. From a coaches perspective, directing the game is all about probabilities. It’s data science in its simplest form - a probabilistic chance that a given play, given the current variables will result in a desired outcome.

The truth about statistics is that, once a play is finished, the chances of its results are always 100%. If the team executes with success then the coach is brilliant. If the team does not execute, the coach ‘played not to lose.’ Which is more or less an accurate statement, too.

In second guessing the last two possessions of downs Saturday but given the parameters: Tennessee’s rushing offense under Hupel has an average ranking of 3rd in the SEC the past four years. Maybe additional weight should have been considered since Georgia’s defense was stuffing the run all day. But statistically, Tennessee should have been able to get close while running the clock out and put the game away.

Perhaps CJH should have trusted a little more on Aguilar’s arm in the final minutes. Four touchdowns and over 350 yards passing says the air game was getting it done. But, the statistically correct calls were made and Tennessee’s players were unable to execute. Probabilities work both ways: Georgia’s defense likely played the stats that Tennessee would try to burn the clock and thus continued their dominance on the line of scrimmage. A bolder move, and one that might have paid big dividends, would have been to keep slinging it. We will never know.

Sure, it would have been nice for Aguilar to air one out to Brazzell one last time and put the game away. But, what if he had been intercepted? The chances of an interception, negating any points and scoring (a 14-10 point swing) were worse than driving down the field, draining the clock, and taking the eight point lead. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Bold plays can make champs or chumps. Remember that SEC championship game when Kirby not-so Smart ran Justin Fields out for the worst fake punt ever? Bold play, bad results. And it happens all the time.

CJH is doing a great job. Tennessee’s team had a preseason composite talent of 16, compared to Georgia’s 1! Heavily banged up on the defense, they put on a Master Class of offense in the first quarter.

Take heart Volunteer fans…the good times are comin’

Is Heupel doing a great job? Yes most certainly. That being said the coaching was not as solid as you want to believe. The drive at the end of the game was Heupel playing not to lose. If we had been playing Syracuse or some other team then I wouldn’t have as much of an issue with the play calling. But we were playing UGA. And we had a real chance of beating them. You don’t run up the guy three times for essentially zero gain.

Airing it out to Brazzell? That would have been my choice. Say it got intercepted close to the goal line? Ok then. UGA would have had to go a long way in a short time to get into field goal range. And who knows? Maybe they fumble or throw a pick 6. Being aggressive worked for us the whole game. Bottom line is coaching errors at the end was one of the reasons we lost.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

It wasn't a bad series by Heupel, we just missed the kick. Heupel didn't know we would have false start or bad kick. The only change that I would have done was try to run the play again instead of kicking it. I think Heupel panicked after the mistake and decided to go ahead and kick. Obviously, the kicker's head wasn't in the right place.

Heupel needs to use his time outs more. As crazy as it sounds, a time out to talk to the kicker and calm him down might have been a good idea.

Granted, no matter whatever Heupel did, he would have been questioned about it unless we make the kick.

Yes it was a bad series. If we were closer than ok. But 42 yards isn’t an easy FG under that kind of pressure.

 

[BeardedVol]

Kirby let Bobo call a down-field pass play on 4th and 6; that's playing to win.

Heupel has many admirable qualities as a HC, but infallible he is not, and his tendency to get conservative in the worst moments is something we've seen on a consistent basis out of him.

It's why even when we get a significant lead, it's hard to feel comfortable if it's early in the game.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

GA stacked the line on that series anticipating Heuple would run it and guessed right. I think a QB roll out on 1st or 2nd down with run pass option would have worked for 5-7 yds which would have set up a run for a 1st down. I'm sure Heuple would like to have those 3 calls back but done deal now, move on.

 

[loosecannon]

I have a close friend who serves as the DC for a D1 team. While that doesn’t give me any more authority than my couch coach peers on this forum, he’s always trying to explain to me the logic behind coaching decisions. From a coaches perspective, directing the game is all about probabilities. It’s data science in its simplest form - a probabilistic chance that a given play, given the current variables will result in a desired outcome.

The truth about statistics is that, once a play is finished, the chances of its results are always 100%. If the team executes with success then the coach is brilliant. If the team does not execute, the coach ‘played not to lose.’ Which is more or less an accurate statement, too.

In second guessing the last two possessions of downs Saturday but given the parameters: Tennessee’s rushing offense under Hupel has an average ranking of 3rd in the SEC the past four years. Maybe additional weight should have been considered since Georgia’s defense was stuffing the run all day. But statistically, Tennessee should have been able to get close while running the clock out and put the game away.

Perhaps CJH should have trusted a little more on Aguilar’s arm in the final minutes. Four touchdowns and over 350 yards passing says the air game was getting it done. But, the statistically correct calls were made and Tennessee’s players were unable to execute. Probabilities work both ways: Georgia’s defense likely played the stats that Tennessee would try to burn the clock and thus continued their dominance on the line of scrimmage. A bolder move, and one that might have paid big dividends, would have been to keep slinging it. We will never know.

Sure, it would have been nice for Aguilar to air one out to Brazzell one last time and put the game away. But, what if he had been intercepted? The chances of an interception, negating any points and scoring (a 14-10 point swing) were worse than driving down the field, draining the clock, and taking the eight point lead. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Bold plays can make champs or chumps. Remember that SEC championship game when Kirby not-so Smart ran Justin Fields out for the worst fake punt ever? Bold play, bad results. And it happens all the time.

CJH is doing a great job. Tennessee’s team had a preseason composite talent of 16, compared to Georgia’s 1! Heavily banged up on the defense, they put on a Master Class of offense in the first quarter.

Take heart Volunteer fans…the good times are comin’

My biggest issue is with timeout usage and not recognizing a bad matchup in critical moments. Should have used a timeout on 4th down and on the 2pt play to make sure we could help the corner they were repeatedly picking on. On 2pts, everyone runs a version of a pick play and we were lost. On 4th they isolated Redmond on the wide side and just played catch. No help. Not a lot of excuse for being in a version of 2 man or something similar there.
I think the other decisions were fine. We have to execute something. On the goal lon

 

[TheVolsFrog]

That's really taking it too far, though. If you have a tie game with 2 and a half minutes to go, and the ball, you're the likely winner, not Georgia. Tennessee really did march right down the field and set up a field goal to win it. Yeah, I certainly would prefer to win by 4 touchdowns, but I think Tennessee was the likely winner right up to that field goal miss.

When TN didn't take a shot down the field after the T/O but instead ran right up the middle 3 times to settle for a FG I knew it would come back to bite us.

 

[MOOOOONEY]

I have a close friend who serves as the DC for a D1 team. While that doesn’t give me any more authority than my couch coach peers on this forum, he’s always trying to explain to me the logic behind coaching decisions. From a coaches perspective, directing the game is all about probabilities. It’s data science in its simplest form - a probabilistic chance that a given play, given the current variables will result in a desired outcome.

The truth about statistics is that, once a play is finished, the chances of its results are always 100%. If the team executes with success then the coach is brilliant. If the team does not execute, the coach ‘played not to lose.’ Which is more or less an accurate statement, too.

In second guessing the last two possessions of downs Saturday but given the parameters: Tennessee’s rushing offense under Hupel has an average ranking of 3rd in the SEC the past four years. Maybe additional weight should have been considered since Georgia’s defense was stuffing the run all day. But statistically, Tennessee should have been able to get close while running the clock out and put the game away.

Perhaps CJH should have trusted a little more on Aguilar’s arm in the final minutes. Four touchdowns and over 350 yards passing says the air game was getting it done. But, the statistically correct calls were made and Tennessee’s players were unable to execute. Probabilities work both ways: Georgia’s defense likely played the stats that Tennessee would try to burn the clock and thus continued their dominance on the line of scrimmage. A bolder move, and one that might have paid big dividends, would have been to keep slinging it. We will never know.

Sure, it would have been nice for Aguilar to air one out to Brazzell one last time and put the game away. But, what if he had been intercepted? The chances of an interception, negating any points and scoring (a 14-10 point swing) were worse than driving down the field, draining the clock, and taking the eight point lead. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Bold plays can make champs or chumps. Remember that SEC championship game when Kirby not-so Smart ran Justin Fields out for the worst fake punt ever? Bold play, bad results. And it happens all the time.

CJH is doing a great job. Tennessee’s team had a preseason composite talent of 16, compared to Georgia’s 1! Heavily banged up on the defense, they put on a Master Class of offense in the first quarter.

Take heart Volunteer fans…the good times are comin’

Kinda sounds like Lyle’s chart.

Any good boxer knows that when you have your opponent staggering then you go for the knockout.

It was a horrible decision to run the ball 3 straight times.