Sagarin, Probability, Etcetra

#1
DiderotsGhost

DiderotsGhost

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#1
#18 Sagarin Rating. Our Sagarin rating hasn't changed for awhile. We were #18 after Kentucky, we stayed at #18 following SCe, and we're still #18 after North Texas. No big change there, but big changes everywhere else.

Our Strength of Schedule Dropped. We had the #2 strength of schedule after Alabama. That dropped to #3 after Kentucky and #6 after South Carolina. However, it has fallen ten spots to #16 after North Texas; that's how bad North Texas is!

Our opponents. While North Texas is awful, you can see that many of of our other opponents continue to climb up the ratings. Here are the ratings of all our opponents.

1 - Alabama
2 - Oklahoma
10 - Florida
23 - Georgia
24 - Arkansas
37 - Bowling Green
57 - Missouri
63 - South Carolina
76 - Vanderbilt
80 - Kentucky
133 - Western Carolina
177 - North Texas

To sum it up, by the end of the season, we will have played 3 elite opponents, 5 "top 25" opponents, 10 legit opponents, and 2 cupcakes.

The Oklahoma and Florida Losses. Look more "respectable" now given their #2 and #10 ratings, but are also that much more frustrating. Oklahoma looked like a national title team last week against Baylor. To think we all but had them beat! Florida has never looked "national title contender", but they do keep managing to win, and certainly deserve to be considered "top 10" at this point. So frustrating to have both of those teams beat and find a way to lose. But both teams have proven they are very good, if not great, teams at this point.

Odds of Winning Out = 69.9%. Believe it or not, our "odds of winning out" have actually declined over the past week according to ESPN projections. Odds of beating Vandy are virtually unchanged at 91%, but odds of beating Mizzou have fallen to 76.8%, putting our overall odds of winning out at 69.9%. The decline seems to more of a result of Missouri's increasing strength after the BYU win in the models, rather than our performances.

No "Other Receiving Votes". While it might be the most minor slight in the world, I'll pull a Kobe Bryant and take offense at it. We had no "other receiving votes" in the AP or Coaches polls this week. We did a few weeks ago at 4-4, but at 6-4 we fell off completely. Bowling Green, a team that we completely dominanted, however, had 4 votes and Mississippi State, a team that got destroyed by Alabama, had 25 votes.

Vengeance! I want to beat Missouri really badly this year. Obviously, all of us at VN want to win out, finish the season 8-4, and make a good bowl game. But I want more than that. I want vengeance for that awful game in 2013! While 2013 was a terrible season to be a Vol fan in general, the game at Mizzou was the worst of the entire season. For me, that game was even more depressing than Oregon (we knew they'd blow us out), Alabama (ditto), Auburn (vastly more talented than us), or even Vandy (which was bad but at least it was a game). Missouri dominated us in EVERY FACET OF THE GAME. While I didn't expect to win, I didn't expect it to be nearly as one-sided as that either. To me, putting up a big win against Missouri on the road would show how much progress Butch Jones has made in a few years.
 
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#2
#2
I must admit, I miss the old days when wins and losses were the only real statistic.....statistics can be used in many ways and while they serve a purpose they can be manipulated to serve a specific purpose.

OP was insulted so I've edited this to better reflect what I was trying to say and not be such an a**...
 
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#3
#3
JohnD13 said:
I must admit, I miss the old days when wins and losses were the only real statistic. Now with all these analytics it brings back something I heard first in college. Statistics lie and liars use statistics....
Click to expand...

To be honest, I find your sentiment to be completely hypocritical and borderline stupid.

First off, the Sagarin ratings are not "statistics." It's a computer poll that looks at overall performance based on a wide variety of measures and taking into account important factors such as strength of schedule. The reason I prefer Sagarin is precisely because it doesn't automatically assume an 8-4 team is worse than a 10-2 team, even when the 8-4 team plays 8 games against top 25 teams and the 10-2 team plays only 2 mediocre bowl teams all season.

Next off, yardage numbers are statistics and those have been cited for decades. Yet, yardage stats are a much more accurate representation as to why stats lie than the Sagarin ratings. Yardage stats are honestly one of the most useless measures of performance in all of football. Two teams can both have 300 yards in a game, but the final score could end up being 30-0 with one team dominating every facet of the game. So yes, stats do lie sometimes, but your use of this common adage displays your own ignorance, because its meaningless statistics that have driven college football awards and polls for DECADES now. Wins and losses are also, in a sense, somewhat meaningless statistics when taken in the abstract.

In essence, the reason why your post is stupid to me is because your feel the need to insult everyone else who has a different view than you, yet you fail to acknowledge that you are using completely meaningless statistics every day. It's just that you don't actually think about your meaningless statistics (wins, losses, yards) --- you accept them as gospel truth. But then you have the audacity to say "statistics lie" and imply that I'm a liar because I post ... no actual statistics, but a computer poll and strength of schedule numbers.

So if you truly hate meaningless statistics, you should love the Sagarin ratings. If you love meaningless statistics, then you should cite nothing but wins, losses, and yardage, like the mainstream sports media has tended to do for several decades.
 
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#4
#4
JohnD13 said:
I must admit, I miss the old days when wins and losses were the only real statistic. Now with all these analytics it brings back something I heard first in college. Statistics lie and liars use statistics....
Click to expand...

Typical VN....... Post something positive and, soon enough, someone will be along to p*** on it.
 
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#6
#6
DiderotsGhost said:
To be honest, I find your sentiment to be completely hypocritical and borderline stupid.

First off, the Sagarin ratings are not "statistics." It's a computer poll that looks at overall performance based on a wide variety of measures and taking into account important factors such as strength of schedule. The reason I prefer Sagarin is precisely because it doesn't automatically assume an 8-4 team is worse than a 10-2 team, even when the 8-4 team plays 8 games against top 25 teams and the 10-2 team plays only 2 mediocre bowl teams all season.

Next off, yardage numbers are statistics and those have been cited for decades. Yet, yardage stats are a much more accurate representation as to why stats lie than the Sagarin ratings. Yardage stats are honestly one of the most useless measures of performance in all of football. Two teams can both have 300 yards in a game, but the final score could end up being 30-0 with one team dominating every facet of the game. So yes, stats do lie sometimes, but your use of this common adage displays your own ignorance, because its meaningless statistics that have driven college football awards and polls for DECADES now. Wins and losses are also, in a sense, somewhat meaningless statistics when taken in the abstract.

In essence, the reason why your post is stupid to me is because your feel the need to insult everyone else who has a different view than you, yet you fail to acknowledge that you are using completely meaningless statistics every day. It's just that you don't actually think about your meaningless statistics (wins, losses, yards) --- you accept them as gospel truth. But then you have the audacity to say "statistics lie" and imply that I'm a liar because I post ... no actual statistics, but a computer poll and strength of schedule numbers.

So if you truly hate meaningless statistics, you should love the Sagarin ratings. If you love meaningless statistics, then you should cite nothing but wins, losses, and yardage, like the mainstream sports media has tended to do for several decades.
Click to expand...


Your diatribe has nothing to do with my post you've just used it to go off. Where did I insult you or anyone else? Where? You can twist any statistic anyway to prove your point, everyone knows that.

If you can't take people having comments on your threads maybe you should grow thicker skin or not start threads....

One final thing, I'm sure the Sagarin is a great tool in recruiting.....
 
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#7
#7
JohnD13 said:
Your diatribe has nothing to do with my post you've just used it to go off. Where did I insult you or anyone else? Where? You can twist any statistic anyway to prove your point, everyone knows that.

If you can't take people having comments on your threads maybe you should grow thicker skin or not start threads....

One final thing, I'm sure the Sagarin is a great tool in recruiting.....
Click to expand...

"Statistics lie and liars use statistics"... Sounds pretty insulting. Your post was pretty irrelevant. At least OPs was thought out and well written instead of just pouring s*** out of his mouth.
 
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#8
#8
bUTchLookin4Dimez said:
"Statistics lie and liars use statistics"... Sounds pretty insulting. Your post was pretty irrelevant. At least OPs was thought out and well written instead of just pouring s*** out of his mouth.
Click to expand...

If it came off that way then I apologize to the OP. In the end all that matters is how many games you win. I've seen both sides on here uses stats to try and prove a point that another stat will equally rebuff.

Once again did not mean to offend anyone and certainly was not calling the OP a liar. I just prefer the "eye test" to stats when ranking teams.
 
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#12
#12
Are wins and losses not technically statistics?

Those two numbers give you a fraction (percentage) of games won out of games played, a statistic
 
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#16
#16
DiderotsGhost said:
1 - Alabama
2 - Oklahoma
10 - Florida
23 - Georgia
24 - Arkansas
37 - Bowling Green
57 - Missouri
63 - South Carolina
76 - Vanderbilt
80 - Kentucky
133 - Western Carolina
177 - North Texas
Click to expand...

Interesting to see Bowling Green ahead of 4 SEC East teams. Bowling Green is a gritty team making the best of what they've got. Doesn't say much for the bottom 4 of the east division, however.
 
#17
#17
Even if we finish 8-4, we ain't going to get that good a bowl game.
Our bowl game last year was extremely low on the totem pole and the team that we drubbed is in currently ranked number 6. But, after what's happened to Iowa since then, maybe everybody will want to play us in a bowl!
 
#18
#18
People need to recognize the fact that while going to a bowl is nice for the fans and players it's the extra practice (especially for underclassmen) that is the real reward that will contribute to success down the road...
 
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#21
#21
Special Ed said:
Even if we finish 8-4, we ain't going to get that good a bowl game.
Our bowl game last year was extremely low on the totem pole and the team that we drubbed is in currently ranked number 6. But, after what's happened to Iowa since then, maybe everybody will want to play us in a bowl!
Click to expand...

Iowa's success is cause they've played nobody. Don't be surprised if Nebraska beats them in 2 weeks and then they'll get destroyed in the big 10 title game and whatever bowl game they get.

They're not a good football. They've just had the good fortune of playing a lot of really bad teams.
 
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#22
#22
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Iowa's success is cause they've played nobody. Don't be surprised if Nebraska beats them in 2 weeks and then they'll get destroyed in the big 10 title game and whatever bowl game they get.

They're not a good football. They've just had the good fortune of playing a lot of really bad teams.
Click to expand...

I predict that you will be right. I bet Nebraska will beat Iowa. I bet they will bet smashed in the Big 10 Championship too.
 
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