S&P+ Ratings: TN overrated in 2016

[sjt18]

We don't have to beat Georgia or Florida to win the East, either.

Beating them helps a lot easing the path, of course. Beating Bama helps ease the path, too. Not quite as much, but AM64's argument is valid.

The Bama game does occur every single year, and does make a difference in getting to Atlanta.

I didn't deny any of that. I was just trying to point out that if UT starts taking care of business in the East then the Bama game won't prevent the Vols from winning the East.

UGA IMO has the easiest draw of the East's big 3.

I know this makes me less than the expected Puritan around here... but I want the SEC to drop the permanent cross over games. What I would really like to see is the addition of two more teams with 4 four team divisions and a mini-playoff at the end.

 

[daj2576]

I think Daj and his analysis of recruiting rankings are correct to a degree. Avg ranking of 5 vs avg ranking of 50 then sure, they have a 70% chance of winning. But when they are closer in rankings the numbers get a little fuzzier. Last year against the 5 teams our recruiting rankings were close to, we were supposed to beat OU and AR and lose to Bama, UF, and UGA. The recruiting rankings predicted 2 out of 5 games correctly. Remove the weak recruiting teams from the mix then redo the numbers and it won't be anywhere close to 70% accurate

How close is "anywhere close"?

And, how can you support that statement beyond pure speculation and conjecture?

If you have the data, I'd love to see it.

On the other hand, I do tend to modify predictions when teams get very close. (Within a point, more or less). In those relatively infrequent cases, I'd say pick the home team.

It should be noted that I've shown the SEC v SEC results going back about three years to show that the average win % in those games over that time was roughly 2/3.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I agree that talent can make up for tactical mistakes. Tactical excellence can also make up for a lack of talent.

But Jones' issues haven't been tactical. They've been strategy like trying to ice games too early or even reading the "chart" wrong on PAT's.

But his tendencies have been exposed. Hopefully he improves.

I take a good bit of hope out of the fact that he has now upgraded (IMO) both coordinators by parting ways with good friends. That's not an easy thing to do at all.



I don't really complain about the tactical mistakes like the 4th and 14 play call. The UT v UF game should have never been at a point for that call to matter. If Jones stays aggressive on O then the Vols win. The rush 3 with a spy D is also a pretty "conservative" play call.

Fair enough, on all points.

 

[Catbone]

If we don't win the east butch may not be the guy

 

[KBVol]

If we don't win the east butch may not be the guy

Agree. If he can't win it this year with how things are set up, with so many things in our favor, I'm not sure he ever will. If that happens and he falls short this year, he'll be known as the guy who could build a program, recruit his arse off, and promote the program like a champ. But he'll also be known as a guy who just wasn't a championship coach at this, the highest level of college football and it'll wind up being a situation that tests the patience of our AD, administration and boosters for how long they're good with just winning 8-9 games but no titles.

 

[jbr82]

If we don't win the east butch may not be the guy

With most of these talented studs healthy....I agree to. Should have won the east last season imo.

 

[08Vol]

Agree. If he can't win it this year with how things are set up, with so many things in our favor, I'm not sure he ever will. If that happens and he falls short this year, he'll be known as the guy who could build a program, recruit his arse off, and promote the program like a champ. But he'll also be known as a guy who just wasn't a championship coach at this, the highest level of college football and it'll wind up being a situation that tests the patience of our AD, administration and boosters for how long they're good with just winning 8-9 games but no titles.

This is correct. Butch needs to win the East when he has the talent to. Last year he should have won it, but he didn't. If he wants a "pass" on a season full of talent then he needs to win it some years when he doesn't have the talent. So far he has shown that his schemes don't work with out elite talent. We have elite talent this year. If he can't win this year it means his schemes just don't work at this level

 

[ZippyMorocco]

On the point that this board is underestimating UGA, ESPN has UGA as a Sleeper for the CFB Playoff.



Georgia Bulldogs could be a sleeper team to contend for College Football Playoff

UGA should win 8 games on talent alone. The 4 close games are UNC, Ole Miss, UT, and UF. If they go 2-2, the East champ will probably be the winner of the UGA/UT game.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

UGA should win 8 games on talent alone. The 4 close games are UNC, Ole Miss, UT, and UF. If they go 2-2, the East champ will probably be the winner of the UGA/UT game.

True.

Except...

...which Auburn shows up in 2016? Kind of a Jekyll and Hyde team.

and...

...which Georgia Tech shows up in 2016? Another J&H.

So definitely 4 games worth paying attention to...but maybe 6. On their good years, both Auburn and Ga Tech can be better than UNC on its best year.

And the Auburn one affects SEC standings.

 

[5000ninjas]

S&P also downgraded the US's credit rating for no reason and rated junk mortgage bonds AAA, which helped bring on the Great Recession. They don't have much credibility in my book.

 

[ZippyMorocco]

True.

Except...

...which Auburn shows up in 2016? Kind of a Jekyll and Hyde team.

and...

...which Georgia Tech shows up in 2016? Another J&H.

So definitely 4 games worth paying attention to...but maybe 6. On their good years, both Auburn and Ga Tech can be better than UNC on its best year.

And the Auburn one affects SEC standings.

JMO, Auburn and Yech will struggle to be bowl eligible.

 

[AM64]

JMO, Auburn and Yech will struggle to be bowl eligible.

And FL was expected to lose any tough games last year, and be nowhere near the east championship. People have always had seasons all planned out - and then it starts. Sometimes it's just a freaky key injury coupled with lack of depth - what might have been the difference with Maggitt remaining as the other bookend throughout the season.

 

[ConMan]

And FL was expected to lose any tough games last year, and be nowhere near the east championship. People have always had seasons all planned out - and then it starts. Sometimes it's just a freaky key injury coupled with lack of depth - what might have been the difference with Maggitt remaining as the other bookend throughout the season.

I've told so many ppl it would have been a different season if Maggitt didn't get hurt vs OU

 

[sechamp2012]

IMO 4 factors and it all has to do with QB's
1. Will UF have a 60%+passer
2. Will bama find a game manager QB that does not turn it over
3. Can a Freshman QB lead a deep UGA team in SEC
4. Will Knight be the MVP he was against Bama or the failure he was most the rest of that year.
If these factors are negatve for these teams. I see us going 3 & 1, QB is the biggest game changer by far no matter how well you have recruited .Sans Bama as they have shown they can win with a average game manager.

 

[MustafaRasta]

What top tier coach would want to step into a situation with the plate set for them with the only missing component being someone who can get it done on game day? I suspect there's more than a few.

Got any names that dont start with blah and end in blah blah?

 

[jakez4ut]

That's a reasonable question... There have been far more d**kish questions asked.

I'm not sure you can just stamp a "one championship every 4 years" on it. You CAN say that the HC should be building a championship caliber team at all times and then win championships in most of the years when one has been built.... like this year.

Agreed.

On top of that, you look at the years of missed opportunities and compare to opportunities taken advantage of. A VERY bad coaching performance in the Swamp last year was all that stood between the Vols and ATL. So in my mind, if you follow THAT up with an underperformance of this particular roster.... that's an unsatisfactory pattern.

the only thing i would say here is, how many opportunities have there been, really? i didn't think we'd win the East last year. in my mind, i've pretty much had 2016 as the year we'd have the best chance.

IMO, only because they acted on Fulmer too late. He should have left sooner and with much more grace. Maybe he wouldn't have cooperated.... but the game had passed him by.

Not the only metric but I would say a prerequisite. Again, if you are OK with 2nd tier then that's your prerogative. It seems that a disappointing number are.

well, prior to last year, we' weren't even 2nd tier. this year is the first year in quite a while you could realistically say we have top shelf aspirations. so, again, let's see how it plays out.

Not sure it is realistic to expect it every year.... but why isn't it "realistic" for a UT fan to expect the Vols to do what Bama is doing? What UF once did and expects to do again?

because no one does that. they're the exception to the rule. if that's going to be the standard, or the bar, then there's going to be a lot of failure.

Ultimately, you win championships or you don't. When the opportunity is laying before you.... you have to take it.

AGreed. i think this is fundamental to whether or not 120 gets it done. this is one area in particular that we failed in last year, repeatedly, players and coaches alike.

If your job is sales and you can repeatedly do all the work to get you to the point of making a huge sale.... but repeatedly fail to close the deal... How long is that going to be good enough? Jones makes considerably more than most salesmen. Should repeated failure be excused just because the competition is tough?

i don't know the answer to these questions, other than to say if we continue to lose to FL and Bama, and consequently miss out on trips to ATL, it will get answered.

"An" indication that Jones isn't a good enough coach to win championships in the SEC? Yes. Not conclusive proof.... but "an" indication.

UF has talent but a new QB and still has significant roster holes. Most of them will be filled by underclassmen. Again they're talented but the players they lost on D were significant.

UGA has a new coach and I fail to see where their roster has become better than last year.... while I think UT's roster HAS become significantly better in depth, experience, and development.

Bama at home in what amounts to a "rebuilding year" (relatively speaking) is about the best you can ask for short of Saban announcing his retirement and Kiffin getting caught with the Dean's 15 year old daughter.

VT is a good opponent but a clear step down from OU and Oregon.

TAM may turn it around but they have underperformed since Johnny left.

UT never has it "easy".... but this is about as good as it is going to get schedule and competition wise... when compared to UT's roster.

i don't disagree with any of this, singularly. my hang up is simply that all 4 of those games are in a row. if they were split up just a little bit, i'd be more inclined to be 100% on board with the whole "soft schedule" thing.

To bring it back to relevance, I do not think UT is overrated OR that 10+ wins is remotely unreasonable.... if Jones has the game day talent to close the deal.

that's the rub, right? 10 wins is not unreasonable. it's the 2 that could come back and bite us in the butt, and CBJ. 10-2 with losses to FL and bama, while good, borderline great, and still could get us to ATL, would still leave a bad taste in many mouths.

i think beating FL is paramount to this season. all my eggs are in that basket. sucks to have a referendum on the season that early, but that's where it is.

 

[TUSKtimes]

i think beating FL is paramount to this season. all my eggs are in that basket. sucks to have a referendum on the season that early, but that's where it is.

You have to own it. But no different than what's going on elsewhere. LSU wants no excuses. They don't beat Bama in Baton Rogue this time they want to remove Les from his job. It just got Richt, too many losses to rivals and bluebloods. It will soon derail the gus bus if something doesn't change quick, like right now. Sumlin knows how important this campaign will be for his job security. Another, now or never.

Everyone has to own the expectations of beating your rivals. In the end. it's the truth. It's just that it's the head honcho who ends up paying the bills.

 

[jakez4ut]

You have to own it. But no different than what's going on elsewhere. LSU wants no excuses. They don't beat Bama in Baton Rogue this time they want to remove Les from his job. It just got Richt, too many losses to rivals and bluebloods. It will soon derail the gus bus if something doesn't change quick, like right now. Sumlin knows how important this campaign will be for his job security. Another, now or never.

Everyone has to own the expectations of beating your rivals. In the end. it's the truth. It's just that it's the head honcho who ends up paying the bills.

well, losing 11 in a row will do that. win some of those games at an "every other year or so clip" and this isn't an issue.

 

[TUSKtimes]

well, losing 11 in a row will do that. win some of those games at an "every other year or so clip" and this isn't an issue.

It's not science, but you can almost figure there are three big rivals on most teams schedule that historically you just have to hold your own.

For us it has always been Tennessee, Auburn and LSU. I would argue for Tennessee: Bama, Florida, Georgia.

Any coach that gets dominated in a 4-year cycle by your big three rivals, and it's not likely there is much goodwill left for year 5. And that's probably regardless of how the rest of the schedule pans out.

 

[jakez4ut]

It's not science, but you can almost figure there are three big rivals on most teams schedule that historically you just have to hold your own.

For us it has always been Tennessee, Auburn and LSU. I would argue for Tennessee: Bama, Florida, Georgia.

Any coach that gets dominated in a 4-year cycle by your big three rivals, and it's not likely there is much goodwill left for year 5. And that's probably regardless of how the rest of the schedule pans out.

pretty accurate. and for us, i do think we have to be careful, it's only been last year and this year that i would consider us to be on a level playing field from a competitive standpoint.

as many have said....at some point we just have to win some of these games, at a more regular clip than 1 in 10+.

 

[MustafaRasta]

:snoring:

 

[UTblood4life]

The athletes we have, coached the way coaches should coach should be able to compete with any team, hell we move the ball on all defenses, put pieces together we have lots of talent, no excuses, all volnation knows how close we were last yr. Let this season pan out, damn I hate off season I sound repetitive like all other forums

 

[Neyland Law Vol]

I'm trying to keep my expectations well within the reality realm. For me, 9-3 in the regular season is the bottom line expectation. Anything below that is a big disappointment and I will questioning what went wrong. Anything above that is icing on the cake. 10-2 and 11-1 are certainly achievable. But if they don't get that many wins, you won't see a meltdown from me. Beating UF is an absolute must. 9-3 that includes a win against UF is a successful regular season for me. That having been said, 10-2 would be soooo nice!!!!!!

Now all that depends on injuries. If we start losing key players to injury, then I'll relook at what I consider realistic expectations should be. The one position area that we need to stay healthy is the OL.

This is a very reasonable post. I agree with this outlook.

 

[Neyland Law Vol]

UGA should win 8 games on talent alone. The 4 close games are UNC, Ole Miss, UT, and UF. If they go 2-2, the East champ will probably be the winner of the UGA/UT game.

UGA has the easiest path to Atlanta next year, and a loaded roster. The only reason people are doubting UGA as a major hurdle in this forum is TN beat them last year.

But it was a win at the last second, with UGA's best player out, and at our place.

Next year, its in Athens, and their roster is more talented than TN's according to the experts.

I know they may start a Freshman QB, but that is only if he beats out the guy that almost beat us last year. (remember he threw several balls on point that their WR dropped that should have been TD's against us).

I'm not sure QB is a big a weakness for UGA as some here may think.

That game will be a monster hurdle for Team 120. (especially coming off what may be a huge emotional win just 7 days prior).

 

[BigOrangeLoyalist]

UGA has the easiest path to Atlanta next year, and a loaded roster. The only reason people are doubting UGA as a major hurdle in this forum is TN beat them last year.

But it was a win at the last second, with UGA's best player out, and at our place.

Next year, its in Athens, and their roster is more talented than TN's according to the experts.

I know they may start a Freshman QB, but that is only if he beats out the guy that almost beat us last year. (remember he threw several balls on point that their WR dropped that should have been TD's against us).

I'm not sure QB is a big a weakness for UGA as some here may think.

That game will be a monster hurdle for Team 120. (especially coming off what may be a huge emotional win just 7 days prior).

Very well said and agree on all points, especially the last. If we break our 11 year streak against Florida, I don't feel good about the next week between the hedges. However, I predicted we win both of those, but because of that, I REALLY don't feel good about going to Kyle Field the week before Bama.