Rivals 5 star rating explained

#1
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mtvols

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#1
Some of you may already know this....

I heard a Rivals recruiting analyst on the radio a few days ago. He said that they rate a player as a 5 star player only if the player is a potential college all-American or a potential NFL first round draft choice. Usually this means 24-32 five stars a year.

He also said that there wasn't much difference in players ranked even 100 spots a part. The example used was the number 26 player vs the number 126 player. Those players would be very close.
 
#2
#2
Lots of guessing and subjectivity to these opinions and rankings. Most are made through a player's junior year and they have yet to play as seniors. Numbers can change a lot in a season. Although I would agree these is a difference between the top 5 stars and bottom 3 stars. That's the reason I put more faith in coaches evaluations than in Rivals and Scout rankings. Coaches have a lot more detailed info from their own consultants than the public ranking services.
 
#3
#3
mtvols said:
Some of you may already know this....

I heard a Rivals recruiting analyst on the radio a few days ago. He said that they rate a player as a 5 star player only if the player is a potential college all-American or a potential NFL first round draft choice. Usually this means 24-32 five stars a year.

He also said that there wasn't much difference in players ranked even 100 spots a part. The example used was the number 26 player vs the number 126 player. Those players would be very close.
Click to expand...

We need a couple of college All-Americans to win the SEC. Which we may have in 2012.
 
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#4
#4
volroadwarrior said:
Lots of guessing and subjectivity to these opinions and rankings. Most are made through a player's junior year and they have yet to play as seniors. Numbers can change a lot in a season. Although I would agree these is a difference between the top 5 stars and bottom 3 stars. That's the reason I put more faith in coaches evaluations than in Rivals and Scout rankings. Coaches have a lot more detailed info from their own consultants than the public ranking services.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more. :good!:
 
#5
#5
Coaches find kids that best fit their needs and fit the culture of the program. There is a lot of talent out there, but where are their minds at? Dooley will get kids that want to be here, 3 or 5 or 5 star be damned!! Some kids with talent, good coaching and the desire to "Give Their All for Tennessee!!", that's what we need!
 
#7
#7
When all is said and done, yes as a general rule, I would prefer 5 instead of 3 stars. But, if you have a good class of 3 and 4s, they stay in school, stay out of trouble, fill a team's needs and are coachable then I don't care about their star rankings. Also, you may get a bonus of having a player stay his senior season and not go pro.
 
#8
#8
mtvols said:
Some of you may already know this....

I heard a Rivals recruiting analyst on the radio a few days ago. He said that they rate a player as a 5 star player only if the player is a potential college all-American or a potential NFL first round draft choice. Usually this means 24-32 five stars a year.

He also said that there wasn't much difference in players ranked even 100 spots a part. The example used was the number 26 player vs the number 126 player. Those players would be very close.
Click to expand...


Which is why a #20 class is not far from #10 class. Maybe even 1 player makes the difference and that player may never play. Been saying that for awhile to disagreeing posters. Success depends on how many players stay and are developed.
Depends on who stays and who leaves.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#9
#9
g8terh8ter_eric said:
Well, then Rivals fails at ranking then. Check out last year's draft, and their Rivals rankings coming into college.

2010 NFL Draft
Click to expand...

I counted 19 that got drafted - if there were only 24 that is pretty good odds of making the NFL - when u consider how many more there are of the other levels u would likely find their percentage that get drafted is dramatically lower

I guess you see what you want to see - I looked at that as showing they are pretty good at rankings considering all the things that change in football (body size being the most important) that make it more difficult to project than some other sports like bball
 
#10
#10
pl3 said:
Which is why a #20 class is not far from #10 class. Maybe even 1 player makes the difference and that player may never play. Been saying that for awhile to disagreeing posters. Success depends on how many players stay and are developed.
Depends on who stays and who leaves.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

True. Exactly why we are where we are: attrition. If we could have retained 90 percent of our last three classes, we would be having a completely different outlook this year.
 
#11
#11
SCvol333 said:
I counted 19 that got drafted - if there were only 24 that is pretty good odds of making the NFL - when u consider how many more there are of the other levels u would likely find their percentage that get drafted is dramatically lower

I guess you see what you want to see - I looked at that as showing they are pretty good at rankings considering all the things that change in football (body size being the most important) that make it more difficult to project than some other sports like bball
Click to expand...


There are 5 5* players taken in the first round, and 7 2* players. 14 of the 32 picks in the first round are 3* or lower, that's almost half. So, it's very flawed, and very debatable.
 
#12
#12
g8terh8ter_eric said:
There are 5 5* players taken in the first round, and 7 2* players. 14 of the 32 picks in the first round are 3* or lower, that's almost half. So, it's very flawed, and very debatable.
Click to expand...

I ran a statistical analysis on it for a class and for giggles once. There is a statistically significant relationship between more stars and higher draft picks. That isn't debatable.
 
#14
#14
mtvols said:
Some of you may already know this....

I heard a Rivals recruiting analyst on the radio a few days ago. He said that they rate a player as a 5 star player only if the player is a potential college all-American or a potential NFL first round draft choice. Usually this means 24-32 five stars a year.

He also said that there wasn't much difference in players ranked even 100 spots a part. The example used was the number 26 player vs the number 126 player. Those players would be very close.
Click to expand...
THanks. Good post.
 
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#15
#15
pl3 said:
Which is why a #20 class is not far from #10 class. Maybe even 1 player makes the difference and that player may never play. Been saying that for awhile to disagreeing posters. Success depends on how many players stay and are developed.
Depends on who stays and who leaves.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

The difference between #5 and #15 will almost always be less than 5 players.

Your point is dead on when coupled with the fact that the recruiting svcs miss as many 2/3* guys who should have been 4/5* players as they find genuine blue chips. There is enough 3* talent missed to have the "actual" #1 class while not making the top 40... the key is finding it consistently.

Bottom line- the recruiting svcs lack the accuracy to distinguish between teams within 10 places of each other and maybe more... they misjudge talent AND often miss on guys who wash out for behavior.
 
#17
#17
SCvol333 said:
I counted 19 that got drafted - if there were only 24 that is pretty good odds of making the NFL - when u consider how many more there are of the other levels u would likely find their percentage that get drafted is dramatically lower

I guess you see what you want to see - I looked at that as showing they are pretty good at rankings considering all the things that change in football (body size being the most important) that make it more difficult to project than some other sports like bball
Click to expand...

They do a decent job (around 50%) of giving 5* to guys who do make it to the NFL. However, they miss alot of talented guys. There were more former 2* taken in the first round of that draft than 5*. They define a 2* as: Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player

They nailed about 65% (19/29) of the guys they gave 5* to but whiffed on an incredible 99 guys who they gave 2* to.
 
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