Sometime very shortly after December 1st, your next Tennessee coaching staff will be announced as the following:
Bill Cowher
Head Coach
Lane Kiffin
Offensive Coordinator / HC in waiting
Kevin Steele
Defensive Coordinator / Associate Head Coach
Here's the "how" and "why" it happened, as best I can tell you.
1. Hamilton wants to have a coach in place by Dec. 1st. As both the college and NFL seasons are still underway at that point, that would seem to indicate that both out-of-work head coaches and coordinators are most likely to be named. This hire had better be - by mandate of both fans and boosters - an absolute homerun. If not, he's likely on his way out the door - be it sooner or later.
2. Don't let teh amount of money it cost for the buyouts of Fulmer and his assistants fool you - the UT AD is flush with cash, as are the boosters who forced Hamilton to scuttle Fulmer two weeks ago (did you think that the boosters would be able to essentially fire the guy, and not have a say in when it would occur?!). They'll pay whatever it takes to get their guy....if it is their guy. Do you think that Alabama regrets Saban's contract? Neither does Hamilton.
3. No doubt - for a time, Davis was the number one candidate, which is why it kept being mentioned by the local media. Many "sources" within the UTAD confirmed that he was the top target - that's who they also thought would be most likely to come to UT. Had everything remained static, this is likely what would have occurred - Davis comes to Tennessee.
4. However, this was all before the search firm, doing nothing more than due diligence (i.e. going through the paces) contacted Cowher, who showed a marked openness to the idea. Once that occurred, it all changed - the world turned upside down - and Davis was no longer the top candidate.
5. Hamilton rushes to Raleigh to meet with Cowher - for no other reason than to talk to him, and as a sign of how badly he was wanted at Tennessee. The interest was confirmed, and obviously, mutual. Of all we know about the dealings and movements of Mike Hamilton over the last few weeks, the only confirmed rumor we have is that he was, in fact, in Raleigh, NC last Tuesday...meeting with a UT Booster Club. Did I mention that Cowher just happens to reside in Raleigh, too?
6. Cowher is very familiar with the Tennessee program, its facilities, and Mike Hamilton himself, having been in Knoxville for previous coaching clinics. "Selling" him on the program might not have been as difficult as some would believe.
7. Was it coincidental that the day after Hamilton is in Raleigh, Davis issues his very public and adamant denial of any interest in Tennessee. Maybe he realized that there was a new best candidate, and it wasn't him.
8. If there is a "knock" on Cowher (and I use the term "knock" as lightly as possible), it's in his unknown ability to effectively recruit and teach / manage players at the collegiate level. It's not saying that he couldn't, or wouldn't be wildly successful at it - it's just an unknown. Hamilton had a front row seat for how badly these two things could go wrong - first, he watched almost the entirety of Tennessee's recruiting class evaporate last season when Cutcliffe and his staff left for Duke, and this season, as he watched Clawson fail to effectively teach his offense. Hamilton won't let either of these happen again, if at all possible, and that's where both Kiffin and Steele come in.
9. Lane Kiffin was in Knoxville. Some may have disbelieved it - but no one disproved it. The local media guys foo-foo it because an out-of-town media outlet broke it first. Kiffin was (and is?) here. Period.
10. Kiffin's latest interview at Clemson only proved what Hamilton (adn others) have privately told him -that he has an unrealistic estimation of the worth of his coaching stock from coaching in the NFL. As many of you have pointed out, for every Saban, there's a Weis. After now having heard it from two sources (Clemson and Tennessee), Kiffin finally believes it, and realizes that had crazy-as-bat-crap Al Davis not pulled him up from USC, he would be indistinguishable from Steve Sarkisian at the moment, as they shared o-coordinator and play-calling responsibilities at USC (where Sarkisian remains, today).
11. Lane knows fully well that the wrong job could irreparably harm his now golden-hued career for a long, long time. Tennessee looks like a step-back, until you consider all of the factors at play, and the options that really remain.
12. There is a recent trend in college football to have the head coach's successor on staff for a period of time before the HC steps down, and the designated successor steps up. It's that way at Florida State, Kentucky, etc. It adds a continuity to a program that many boosters and fans like. Likely, Hamilton has noticed this.
Book it.