Review of preseason prognostications

#1
allvol

allvol

Eternally Optimistic
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#1
At this point in the season, the Vols are right where most preseason publications had thought, 2-2 with road losses at Cal and Florida. From collegefootballpoll.com

The Volunteers improved to 9-4 last year after a disastrous 5-6 season in 2005. The forecast calls for further improvement this year and puts them in strong contention for the SEC East Division title. The computer's 10-2 projection tags Tennessee with a non-conference loss at California. But it's the lone SEC defeat at Florida that keeps the Vols from being picked for the SEC title game.
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The computers predicted the following:

Florida 11-1, 7-1
Tennessee 10-2, 7-1
South Carolina 9-3, 5-3
Georgia 7-5, 4-4
Kentucky 5-7, 2-6
Vanderbilt 4-8, 1-7

LSU 12-0, 8-0
Auburn 10-2, 6-2
Arkansas 8-4, 4-4
Alabama 5-7, 3-5
Miss St 4-8, 1-7
Mississippi 3-9, 0-8

Florida wins the east via head-to-head tiebreaker. LSU beats Florida in the SECCG.
 
#4
#4
Just thought I would post this as food for thought. Most thought the final scores in the 2 losses would be much closer. 4th quarter collapses in both games inflated the scoring margin. All things that can be corrected over the course of a season with young players at key positions. Ainge is playing will even with a broken finger... and the return of Coker gives a big playmaker on offense as well. The defensive backfield looked alot less lost against ASU. However, the 2nd unit defensive front needs to do much better at putting pressure on the qb and stopping the run.
 
#6
#6
I hope you are right allvol. We shall all find out a week from Saturday. I'm getting pumped all ready!!!!
 
#7
#7
i said 9-3, with onf of the L's being to FL for sure. the other two would come from a combo of Cal, Bama, SC, ARK, GA.

so, i guess i'm still right on track.

but after seeing the special teams and defense in person, i can't see us going the rest of the way with only one more loss.

the GA game is interesting now, we have two weeks to prepare for it, it's at home, we're relatively healthy.

this is a game we should win. Lose it and uh oh is all i can think of.

but to me, the Bama and SC games loom large. two coaches, one a long time nemesis, the other considered widely to be an "elite" coach. if we lose both, more uh oh's come to mind.

but we'll know more after the GA game, and i'll hold any real commentary about SC or Bama until after the GA game.
 
#8
#8
jakez4ut said:
i said 9-3, with onf of the L's being to FL for sure. the other two would come from a combo of Cal, Bama, SC, ARK, GA.

so, i guess i'm still right on track.

but after seeing the special teams and defense in person, i can't see us going the rest of the way with only one more loss.

the GA game is interesting now, we have two weeks to prepare for it, it's at home, we're relatively healthy.

this is a game we should win. Lose it and uh oh is all i can think of.

but to me, the Bama and SC games loom large. two coaches, one a long time nemesis, the other considered widely to be an "elite" coach. if we lose both, more uh oh's come to mind.

but we'll know more after the GA game, and i'll hold any real commentary about SC or Bama until after the GA game.
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Great analysis. I completely agree. While it's hard to imagine right now, teams can change drastically from week to week.
 
#9
#9
crazyguy said:
Great analysis. I completely agree. While it's hard to imagine right now, teams can change drastically from week to week.
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which historically, anyway, we have usually done. we've generally always gotten better as a season goes along.

frankly i wouldn't be surprised, cause i did say it before the seasons stared, if we did go 9-3.

just those 2 losses leave such sour tastes behind.

another loss to an SEC rival is going to be very bitter, which is why i think the GA game is extremely important. If it's not a must win, it's as close as you can get, for the season and for CPF.
 
#10
#10
allvol said:
At this point in the season, the Vols are right where most preseason publications had thought, 2-2 with road losses at Cal and Florida. From collegefootballpoll.com



The computers predicted the following:

Florida 11-1, 7-1
Tennessee 10-2, 7-1
South Carolina 9-3, 5-3
Georgia 7-5, 4-4
Kentucky 5-7, 2-6
Vanderbilt 4-8, 1-7

LSU 12-0, 8-0
Auburn 10-2, 6-2
Arkansas 8-4, 4-4
Alabama 5-7, 3-5
Miss St 4-8, 1-7
Mississippi 3-9, 0-8

Florida wins the east via head-to-head tiebreaker. LSU beats Florida in the SECCG.
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I appreciate the work you put into this AV.

Most objective posters understood that the SEC east was a crapshoot this year. Kentucky is bucking the trend, and Alabama will fair far better than that projection as well, while Auburn will not. At 2-2 an argument could be made for the Vols to win out, but it won't happen unless the defense gels, and there is some miracle that occurs on the special teams between now and the Georgia game.

From what I have seen, it simply does not take an All American running attack to put up numbers on this UT D.
 
#11
#11
jakez4ut said:
which historically, anyway, we have usually done. we've generally always gotten better as a season goes along.

frankly i wouldn't be surprised, cause i did say it before the seasons stared, if we did go 9-3.

just those 2 losses leave such sour tastes behind.

another loss to an SEC rival is going to be very bitter, which is why i think the GA game is extremely important. If it's not a must win, it's as close as you can get, for the season and for CPF.
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The other side to a Georgia loss is what a Georgia win would mean to this team.
 
#14
#14
Lexvol said:
I appreciate the work you put into this AV.

Most objective posters understood that the SEC east was a crapshoot this year. Kentucky is bucking the trend, and Alabama will fair far better than that projection as well, while Auburn will not. At 2-2 an argument could be made for the Vols to win out, but it won't happen unless the defense gels, and there is some miracle that occurs on the special teams between now and the Georgia game.

From what I have seen, it simply does not take an All American running attack to put up numbers on this UT D.
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swap TN and SC and UK and GA?

and Bama and Aub in the West?
 
#18
#18
I said 10-2 with the losses being UGA and the Cocks.

The only reason I said UGA was because of UT's inability to beat a Richt coached team in Neyland.

After watching UGA play, they aren't very good at all. Knowshown Moreno is very good though and UT's run D still isn't very good at all. It's still a toss-up.

Jasper Brinkley being out hurts USCe in a huge way. I now expect UT to beat them. Spurrier's magic touch on QBs seems to have worn off a little bit.
 
#19
#19
jakez4ut said:
which historically, anyway, we have usually done. we've generally always gotten better as a season goes along.
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That is simply factually inaccurate. Our schedule is always far easier in the second half of the season, so we've historically been able to rack up victories against dramatically inferior opponents, but we do not usually improve over the course of the season. That is why we always get dismantled by a mediocre opponent in a mid-tier bowl game.
 
#21
#21
Vol423 said:
That is simply factually inaccurate. Our schedule is always far easier in the second half of the season, so we've historically been able to rack up victories against dramatically inferior opponents, but we do not usually improve over the course of the season. That is why we always get dismantled by a mediocre opponent in a mid-tier bowl game.
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Erroneous statement
 
#24
#24
Vol423 said:
That is simply factually inaccurate. Our schedule is always far easier in the second half of the season, so we've historically been able to rack up victories against dramatically inferior opponents, but we do not usually improve over the course of the season. That is why we always get dismantled by a mediocre opponent in a mid-tier bowl game.
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personally, i liked GAVol's response, but let me clarify.

since divisional play has started, we have most always played FL as the 2nd or 3rd game of the year. we've lost the majority of those games.

and generally as most years from 93-01 would prove, we finished strong, with victories over the usual suspects in Nov in KY, Vandy and a homecoming game, but that also included games against GA, Bama, SC, and some combination of LSU, Aub, MSU, Ole Miss or ARK.

so, the reality is, after the 1st 1/4 of the season is over, we still have 7 SEC games left on the schedule, which is what i was getting at.

thanks for letting me explain it.
 
#25
#25
jakez4ut said:
so, the reality is, after the 1st 1/4 of the season is over, we still have 7 SEC games left on the schedule, which is what i was getting at.
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Exactly . . . The back half of the schedule always include tough games with the likes of Alabama, South Carolina, and Arkansas; not to mention when we have a west opponent like Auburn or LSU thrown in there or an out of conference game with somebody like Notre Dame or Miami.

I think under the old SEC system where we were closing with Ole Siss, Kentucky, Vandy 423 would have been right, but not so much now.
 
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