Recruiting rankings tell all: UT coaches underperform

[VOL 4 Life 83]

Over the past day or so I've been looking at past recruiting classes wondering why we just can't seem to win more games. I looked back from 2010 (8 recruiting cycles) to see what teams have consistently had good classes and what their overall records are over that time span. Of course, Bama is crushing everyone, but what jumped out to me is how well other teams are doing with equal or less talent than UT. What does this boil down to? Pure and simple, it's coaching. Yes a difficult schedule has something to do with it, and of course attrition, but all teams have attrition. That's why I went back 8 seasons to try and normalize the results.

Out of 23 teams that were ranked within the top 20 multiple years within that time span, Tennessee has the third worst win percentage. Additionally, Tennessee and Miami are the only teams during that time to not have a 10+ win season. What's even more interesting? Clemson comes in with an avg recruiting ranking two spots below us, yet has gone to the NC twice. The talent is there, it's just not being developed like it should be.

We desperately need a coaching staff that can develop the talent we are pulling. I truly believe with the right staff this team could be competing for conference/national championships. We really need the AD to make a slam-dunk hire.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

Rank Team Avg Recruiting Ranking Overall Record Win %
1 Alabama 1.38 90-11 89%
2 FSU 5.13 78-19 80%
3 Ohio State 5.88 82-15 84.50%
4 LSU 6.5 72-23 75.80%
5 USC 6.63 66-30 68.80%
6 Georgia 7.75 68-29 70.10%
7 Auburn 8 63-33 65.60%
8 Florida 8.88 58-35 62.40%
9 Texas 10.5 46-44 52.20%
10 Notre Dame 11.88 62-32 67.40%
11 Oklahoma 12.75 77-19 80.20%
12 Tennessee 13.38 49-43 53.30%
13 Texas A&M 15.38 63-32 66.30%
14 Clemson 15.5 80-20 80%
15 Michigan 15.88 62-32 66%
16 Oregon 17.5 76-21 78.40%
17 UCLA 17.88 53-42 55.80%
18 Miami 18 54-37 59.30%
19 Ole Miss 21 47-44 51.60%
20 South Carolina 21.38 61-34 64.20%
21 Stanford 21.63 78-20 79.60%
22 PSU 24.63 60-34 63.80%
23 Washington 25.13 61-36 62.90%

 

[dduncan4163]

 

[Catbone]

It's a process.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Duh.

We see it on the field every Saturday. Butch Jones continues to make poor personnel decisions on who to play (see Colton Jumper vs Daniel Bituli). He also makes poor decisions when it comes to gameday decision-making (see the Florida game).

I've yet to see us get out athleted the last 2 full years. Almost all our losses are because of poor coaching decisions in the game (see 2015 vs Oklahoma and Florida).

Butch Jones is our achilles heel.

 

[dduncan4163]

Dabo is getting it done damn.

 

[Sarms58]

We've also had higher attrition for a number of reasons...we signed a zillion DEs and have several blue chip players transfer out...and we've had our share or primadonas who also transferred...and a number of legacy players that in my opinion were just over ranked...

The rankings are useful when we have nothing else but a kids ranking is determined in part by the marketing his parents and/or coaches do...

But to your point, Butch has brought enough talent in to be competing for the east (at least)...

A win over the Dawgs tomorrow will go a long way towards righting the ship...

 

[norriscraftbasser]

Pumpers don't like facts.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

Dabo is getting it done damn.

Yeah, and Stanford has a crazy win % for having only the 21st best avg recruiting class over those 8 years.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Dabo is getting it done damn.

I remember someone on the recruiting forum arguing with me that Clemson's success was due to them recruiting better than us.

These numbers prove that Dabo is an elite coach that is outperforming his players talent. While Butch Jones is a terrible coach that is significantly underperforming given his players talent level.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

We've also had higher attrition for a number of reasons...we signed a zillion DEs and have several blue chip players transfer out...and we've had our share or primadonas who also transferred...and a number of legacy players that in my opinion were just over ranked...

The rankings are useful when we have nothing else but a kids ranking is determined in part by the marketing his parents and/or coaches do...

But to your point, Butch has brought enough talent in to be competing for the east (at least)...

A win over the Dawgs tomorrow will go a long way towards righting the ship...

What drives me crazy is how wide open the east has been the past few years and CBJ could just not capitalize on it. Now Georgia is looking like the team to beat over the next few years. We had our chance, twice. I don't see another good shot with the current staff we have.

 

[99gator]

I remember someone on the recruiting forum arguing with me that Clemson's success was due to them recruiting better than us.

These numbers prove that Dabo is an elite coach that is outperforming his players talent. While Butch Jones is a terrible coach that is significantly underperforming given his players talent level.

Clemson has better talent

 

[volKano]

It's not a good stat but I wonder how we would rate with strength of schedule added into it.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

I remember someone on the recruiting forum arguing with me that Clemson's success was due to them recruiting better than us.

These numbers prove that Dabo is an elite coach that is outperforming his players talent. While Butch Jones is a terrible coach that is significantly underperforming given his players talent level.

We don't agree on much, but I agree here. Another point, Washington is killing it right now with far less talent than us and other teams. Chris Petersen is killing it out there.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

Clemson has better talent

Not according to the recruiting rankings, even if you look over the past 4 years.

 

[BigOrangeD]

It's a process.

:good!:

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

It's a process.

The process needs to be hiring a coaching search firm

 

[mercuryvol]

I think we need to save our money to hire Swinney.

 

[UpstateVol613]

Not according to the recruiting rankings, even if you look over the past 4 years.

Clemson does have superior talent. Just going with overall recruiting rankings can be a little misleading. Rankings are based on a players ability to come in and contribute. Typically WR's, Running Backs, etc. can come in and contribute early while lineman take longer to develope. That's why you see a lot more 5* wide receivers and running backs then you do lineman. That being said top lineman are WAY more valuable. Every once in a while you see a Trey Smith or Cyrus Cuandjo come through and start as freshman but they are rare.

My point with all this is the game is typically won on the line of scrimmage. I am probably forgetting someone but outside of Derek Barnett and Trey Smith(will be) have we had any lineman dominant on either side of the ball in the last 8 years?

Here are some at Clemson

Dexter Lawrence
Christian Wilkins
Clelin Ferrel
Vic Beasley
Jay Guillermo
Mitch Hyatt
Shaq Lawson
Kevin Dodd
...and the list keeps going

 

[TouchDownVols]

I think we need to save our money to hire Swinney.

There is the problem UT don't want to pay the good money
for a good coach, they want someone in the middle pay range....But they want to win.=
Little pay= Some wins
Good pay= A lot of wins

 

[VolFan4Life87]

Over the past day or so I've been looking at past recruiting classes wondering why we just can't seem to win more games. I looked back from 2010 (8 recruiting cycles) to see what teams have consistently had good classes and what their overall records are over that time span. Of course, Bama is crushing everyone, but what jumped out to me is how well other teams are doing with equal or less talent than UT. What does this boil down to? Pure and simple, it's coaching. Yes a difficult schedule has something to do with it, and of course attrition, but all teams have attrition. That's why I went back 8 seasons to try and normalize the results.

Out of 23 teams that were ranked within the top 20 multiple years within that time span, Tennessee has the third worst win percentage. Additionally, Tennessee and Miami are the only teams during that time to not have a 10+ win season. What's even more interesting? Clemson comes in with an avg recruiting ranking two spots below us, yet has gone to the NC twice. The talent is there, it's just not being developed like it should be.

We desperately need a coaching staff that can develop the talent we are pulling. I truly believe with the right staff this team could be competing for conference/national championships. We really need the AD to make a slam-dunk hire.

Please do not take this offensively as I always enjoy viewing statistical analyses, but if you're going to go to the trouble of attaching an excel spreadsheet please also include the data which supports your copied/pasted calculations - or the actual calculations.:hi:

 

[I40flyer]

I'm not going to demand your work sheets, spread sheets, etc., as any honest observer of our program for the last few years, can't help but conclude jones and friends of jones, maybe able to do a good (not great) job recruiting (although I believe UT is a major draw, because our school is great), but once he has the talent, the development is not there. Not only is the development of players lacking, but utilizing the talents of our players is lacking. jones would rather post a "L", than alter his play book to utilize our player's talents.

 

[UneducatedGuess]

Rank Team Avg Recruiting Ranking Overall Record Win %
1 Alabama 1.38 90-11 89%
2 FSU 5.13 78-19 80%
3 Ohio State 5.88 82-15 84.50%
4 LSU 6.5 72-23 75.80%
5 USC 6.63 66-30 68.80%
6 Georgia 7.75 68-29 70.10%
7 Auburn 8 63-33 65.60%
8 Florida 8.88 58-35 62.40%
9 Texas 10.5 46-44 52.20%
10 Notre Dame 11.88 62-32 67.40%
11 Oklahoma 12.75 77-19 80.20%
12 Tennessee 13.38 49-43 53.30%
13 Texas A&M 15.38 63-32 66.30%
14 Clemson 15.5 80-20 80%
15 Michigan 15.88 62-32 66%
16 Oregon 17.5 76-21 78.40%
17 UCLA 17.88 53-42 55.80%
18 Miami 18 54-37 59.30%
19 Ole Miss 21 47-44 51.60%
20 South Carolina 21.38 61-34 64.20%
21 Stanford 21.63 78-20 79.60%
22 PSU 24.63 60-34 63.80%
23 Washington 25.13 61-36 62.90%

The way I read this - and if I follow your logic - we should lose 3 games a year to higher talented teams

Alabama
Georgia
Florida

Am I wrong?

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

Please do not take this offensively as I always enjoy viewing statistical analyses, but if you're going to go to the trouble of attaching an excel spreadsheet please also include the data which supports your copied/pasted calculations - or the actual calculations.:hi:

I explained it in my original post. I literally just searched each teams recruiting class ranking over 8 years and provided the average. Then I looked up each teams overall win-loss record and provided the percentage.

 

[VOL 4 Life 83]

The way I read this - and if I follow your logic - we should lose 3 games a year to higher talented teams

Alabama
Georgia
Florida

Am I wrong?

Lol. No. What I'm saying is, we are getting beat by teams with less talent, which we should be boat racing. And we should be winning SOME of the games against equal talent, occasionally beating teams more talented than us (like Clemson, Stanford, Oklahoma, and others do). Hell, look at what PSU is doing with much less talent.