Recruiting numbers VS National Championships

#1
blued125

blued125

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#1
I did this for the NCSU fans on Packinsider.com. I guess some of they're fans don't think recruiting matters. There Mod (I think he's a Mod)asked for me to fill them in on the downfall of UT and why it happened. After a bunch of blah blah back and forth about numbers we came to this the numbers. I thought it was interesting enough to post over here.

I did some looking. (Long)
I went back to 1990 till 2011. This is what I found.
National Champs: Sorry for my arrogant humor, I am an SEC fan....LOL (WIKIPEDIA)
1990- Colorado 1997- Michigan 2004- USC 2011- Bama (SEC)
1991- Miami 1998- Tennessee (SEC) 2005- Texas
1992- Bama (SEC) 1999- FSU 2006- Florida (SEC)
1993- FSU 2000- Oklahoma 2007- LSU (SEC)
1994- Nebraska 2001- Miami 2008- Florida (SEC)
1995- Nebraska 2002- Ohio state 2009- Bama (SEC)
1996- Florida (SEC) 2003- LSU (SEC) 2010- Auburn (SEC)

Rivals would only let me go back to 2002 (Rivals/Scout)
Recruiting rank----- # of 5*---------# of 4*---------# of 3*
2002 Ohio State- Rank 5th---3---14---8
2003 LSU- Rank 1st---1---17---10
2004 USC- Rank 1st---8---7---3
2005 Texas- Rank 20th---0---9---6
2006 Florida- Rank 2---4---17---5
2007 LSU- Rank 4---2---19---5
2008 Florida- Rank 3---4---12---4
2009 Bama- Rank 1---4---14---9
2010 Auburn- Rank 4---3---13---13
2011 Bama- Rank 1---3---14---5
Out of the 10 years above these teams was almost always in the top 10 in recruiting. This tells me that someone in the top 10 in recruiting will more then likely win the national championship in 2012.

All time top 10 in recruiting. (Bleacher Report)(BR, I know, I know)
10. Miami- 2 NC shown above
9. Nebraska- 2 NC shown above
8. FSU- 2 NC shown above
7. Texas- 1 NC shown above
6. Ohio State- 1 NC shown above
5. Michigan- 1 NC shown above
4. Bama- 3 NC shown above
3. Notre Dame- O NC shown above
2. Oklahoma- 1 NC shown above
1. USC- 1 NC shown above
I think it is important to note that, Florida was # 11 all time in recruiting and they have 3 NC shown above.

These numbers show me that you have to recruit in the top % to win the big game.

P.S. If I made an error I apologize.
 
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#4
#4
SLOBBER_KNOCKER_U said:
So according to this, you have to be in top 11in recruiting to have a chance to win a national title?
Click to expand...

Yes according to this. The BR numbers are All time. Basically you need to be in the top 6 if you base it off of the rivals/scout rankings. The bulk of national champions from 2002 till now was in the top 6.
 
#8
#8
blued125 said:
The only team not in the top 6 was Texas at 20.
Click to expand...
You do realize that that year's recruiting had virtually nothing to do with the players that helped them win. You'd do better to do 4 yrs recruiting rankings leading up to the National Champ
 
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#9
#9
Crookruss said:
You do realize that that year's recruiting had virtually nothing to do with the players that helped them win. You'd do better to do 4 yrs recruiting rankings leading up to the National Champ
Click to expand...

That's why I said that these teams was almost always in the top 10 in recruiting.

Makes you wonder about Texas.
 
#12
#12
Not sure I follow...you're comparing the recruiting rank and the national champ of the same year?

IMO, if you want to really see if there is a link between the Recruiting Rankings and National success, you'd want to see how the teams did in year 3 & 4 of the Recruiting Class's time at the school...ie how did Ohio State do in 2004 & 2005 as that is when the bulk of the 5th ranked 2002 Recruiting Class would likely be contributing...would be an interesting analysis to see if there is a high correlation...
 
#13
#13
I think you have this backwards, Blue. It is probably the fact that they made it to the NC that they were able to receive such a good recruiting class. I don't believe you have to have a good recruiting class in order to be the national champion.
 
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#14
#14
Attached an example of what I mean. Just taking a quick look, the correlation is somewhat weak...finishing in the Top 10 in Recruiting results in finishing in the Top 10 during the season only about 50% of the time with that recruiting class. Though I'm sure the correlation increases if you were to take the Top 20 Recruiting Classes...
 

Attachments

  • 2002 Class Results.xls
    24 KB · Views: 7
#15
#15
There is clearly a direct correlation between recruiting and wins. rating recruiting classes is not an exact science but it is no coincidence that teams winning national titles are also teams that are doing well in recruiting.
 
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#16
#16
Oregon didn't have that great of a recruiting class and they went to a National Championship. They didn't win it.
 
#17
#17
This thread really makes no sense... I thought the OP meant the last 3-4 yrs.... The bottom line is we need to win this yr, and keep recruiting hard..... We will be back on top soon enough...
 
#18
#18
So correct me if I am wrong...but from what it sounds like a team has to have good talent to win? It all comes together now....
 
#19
#19
CFBmatrix has these numbers determined in a very easy to read and understand format...

According to him, averaging recruiting within the top 18 puts you on an elite BCS berth level. Being on this level doesn't necessarily make it happen, but he hypothesizes that it will happen less than 5% of the time to teams below this recruiting average. I added two teams that have broken through recently with below average recruiting(but excellent coaches)...

Tennessee:
Vols-2012-RR-WIn-Chart.png


Oregon:
UO-2012-RR-WIn-Chart.png


OK St:
OKState-2012-RR-win-total-chart.png


Arkansas:
Ark-Wins-Recrutiing-Trends-Chart-2012.jpg
 
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#20
#20
Without good recruiting classes, you don't have as good of chance to win the SEC. That has been proven time and time again.

Six of the seven NC from the SEC since 2003, have had at least one class or more at #1 in the conference before they won the NC. Auburn is the only team to buck that trend, but they had the #2 class the February before they won it all.

If you aren't recruiting the elite talent in college, you aren't going to win it all.
 
#21
#21
I do not care how much talent one class brings in because if the staff can not develop it does not matter. UF classes rank 11, 2, 12, 3 over the 4 years, which should indicate that they should be on an elite level this year. Yes I know coaching chnages affect things, but just because the talent is there does not always equate into winning.

What top recruiting classes do in short is it allows coaches to correct mistakes made in previous classes. When a highly rated recruit is a bust they can be quickly replaced or processed with another highly rated recruit. If you do not recruit well you have to live with your mistakes longer.
 
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