Given the clarification of the criteria in the first paragraph I'd be inclined to agree with you for the most part. From a talent standpoint (outside of one glaring position) we have way more than enough talent to be no worse than 3-1.
However, having said that, I want to reiterate how tenuous our recruiting base has become with the changes that have occurred in the SEC. Forget Fulmer, I don't care who we have, how many recruits do you think we are going to steal from FL/AL/LSU & GA under their current regimes? And I don't mean citing the likes of Berry, I mean consistently into the forseeable future. Those schools will now, every single year, bring in top talent.
This isn't some cop-out for Fulmer, it's a reality that we need to recognize will be an issue from here on out regardless of who the coach happens to be. Our next coach, whoever or whenever, had better have some serious recruiting chops.