I predicted all off-season that this would be a loss.. simply off of where we thought Carolina would be offensively (ie not being in the middle of a QB controversy and Deebo Samuel having better than pedestrian numbers) and how the schedule lines up (coming off a bye, as we're coming off of Bama)
I just perused their stats, and it looks like they've got quite similar stats to us. They run the ball a touch better (about 15 yards a game better) and they throw significantly better, by the numbers. Defensively, they're just two spots higher than we are-- 61st overall to our 63rd.
They've played against relatively slaw opponents though. While we've played WVU, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama... They've played Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Mizzou as their toughest games (we've both lost to UGA).
Here's an interesting not on the stat sheet:
They're 4th in the country in 3rd Down Conversion Allowed at just a shade under 25%. That seems pretty good, but they've only faced 70 third downs on defense through six games. There are teams (and ones with good defenses, too) that are seeing more like 15-17 defensive third downs per game.
Combine that with the Cocks' time of possession stats-- 26:05 per game, good for 126th nationally-- it looks like this is a defense that can be very Jekyll and Hyde. They can get off the field when it hits 3rd down, or they'll have drives where there's no third downs at all. They're pretty well ranked dead in the middle in scoring defense-- 64th at 25.8 points per game.
This game will come down to how the team responds against Bama. Our guys responded when they saw that sliver of emotion from CJP post-Georgia. Will they have a fire lit under their butts after CJP talked about the team post-Bama? The hangover is real, but seeing some of the quotes like what came from Shy ("If you're not playing banged up at this point in the season it's because you're not playing"- paraphrasing) I hope we have enough leadership to dodge the ill effects.
The cards are stacked against us, but I'll go full homer with full faith in the Pruitt machine to pick the Vols in the first of what will be several pick-ems remaining on our 2018 schedule.
Tennessee 27
Carolina 23