Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

[drvenner]

247 is in the process of updating the 2018 team talent composite rankings but they don’t have everything done on the individual rosters yet. The numbers will adjust a little bit as 247 completes their work in the next several days but as it stands right now the average composite rating of our top 40 guys (talent-wise) is 0.9287. The average for WVU’s top 40 players (which I expect to increase marginally) right now stands at 0.8475.

Ainge said yesterday that we were one of the best teams and one of the most athletic teams that WVU will face this year.

WVU has a proven pass attack. We don’t and since everyone gets thrills from that aspect of the game they are dominating in the preseason perceptions arena.

Both teams have a lot of upperclassmen but they have the advantage of mostly being in the same systems for their entire careers. Around 72.5% of our top 40 guys participated in full contact in the spring. Around 7.5% were on injured reserve in the spring. Around 17.5% arrived on campus at the beginning of June and one guy (2.5%) has yet to report.

I think the only question we have is will our staff have had enough time to get our guys ready to play at or near their industry perceived talent level by the time we get to Charlotte.




Edit to add for reference: Alabama top 40 = 0.9717, Georgia's Roster isn't up yet, Auburn top 40 = 0.9250, Florida top 40 = 0.9031, South Carolina top 40 = 0.8860.

Chatt, I love this stuff. Thanks very much.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Speaking of being overhyped:

F/+ projections lower than conventional wisdom

West Virginia Mountaineers (F/+ No. 45)

The Mountaineers have received a significant amount of offseason hype, coming in at 12th on Sports Illustrated's post-spring Top 25 and second in the polls at the Big 12's media days. Most of the West Virginia optimism hinges on what should be a prolific offense thanks to the return of quarterback Will Grier and receivers Gary Jennings Jr. and David Sills V.

But with only four defensive starters returning, returning just 57 percent (89th) of defensive production, and questionable depth behind the first string, there are reasons to pump the brakes on the Mountaineers. Last season's defense was only 96th in defensive S&P+. For the team as whole, recent history, average recruiting, and the aforementioned low returning production hurt the Mountaineers' 2018 forecast. F/+ projects the Mountaineers as just the 45th-best team entering the 2018 season.

Sure, the Mountaineers are in the offense-first Big 12 and catch the rest of the league in a transition year (Oklahoma and TCU fielding new quarterbacks; Tom Herman's Texas still in the rebuilding process), but it seems like much of the conventional wisdom has focused on the star-studded offense rather than a more holistic look at the Mountaineers.

Over the last two seasons, the Mountaineers have brought in the 35th- and 57th-ranked recruiting classes with just two total blue chip recruits according to the 247 Sports Composite. They were just 43rd in overall team recruiting talent according to the 247 Composite. Dana Holgorsen has supplemented this mediocre recruiting haul with elite transfers, including defensive ends Kenny Bigelow and Jabril Robinson from USC and Clemson, respectively; UCLA transfer defensive back Denzel Fisher; JUCO defensive back Keith Washington; and receivers Jovani Haskins (Miami) and T.J. Simmons (Alabama). But while the Mountaineers may strike gold with some of these transfers, that is far from a sure thing.

Finally, while not indicative of the team's actual quality, the Mountaineers have one of the country's more difficult schedules, with a full nine competitive games that project West Virginia within a touchdown (plus or minus) of their opponents. And that doesn't include Oklahoma, whom S&P+ projects as a 12-point favorite over the Mountaineers. There are simply very few sure-fire wins on West Virginia's schedule -- F/+ doesn't give West Virginia better than a 27 percent chance of victory in any of their final four regular season games.

F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom | Football Outsiders

Also potentially overrated:

But while the Gamecocks went 9-4 last season, they only had 7.1 second-order wins. That essentially means that given how the Gamecocks actually performed in their games last year -- based on stats like success rates, explosive plays, field position, turnovers, etc. -- the Gamecocks could have expected to lose the North Carolina State game 79 percent of the time and the Vanderbilt game 57 percent of the time. Significantly fewer second-order wins than a team's actual record generally gives some indication that a team could be due for some regression to the mean. That's reflected in South Carolina's 2017 F/+ ranking of 57th -- near Missouri, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss, who all went either 7-6 or 6-6. The Gamecocks were the second-worst nine-win team in the country last year (behind just 9-5 North Texas).

 

[engineerVOL]

you know, as you say that, and knowing the opinion this staff has about the newcomers vs. the hold overs, i think it's really astounding we didn't have MORE transfers. they may be able to extend a couple guys' careers by RS them now, and getting developed for their remaining years.

who knows. probably not worth a big discussion, but it is an interesting dynamic for this staff to consider. and guys like Ignot....maybe that's the way to go?

I thought the same thing the other day. Boulware, who else transferred? Turns out that was probably a bad idea. He could probably have gotten on the field a lot this fall.

 

[jakez4ut]

I thought the same thing the other day. Boulware, who else transferred? Turns out that was probably a bad idea. He could probably have gotten on the field a lot this fall.

dormady. and that's it. really astonishing that's all we had leave.

 

[pierce60]

I live in Murfreesboro and have a Hulu Live, Netflix and Prime Video run through an Amazon FireStick and I don't miss anything I really watched to start with. I am pretty sure that all local channels are streamed through Hulu Live now, so I wouldn't miss any games on NBC, CBS, ABC or Fox. Also, I think I have 150 mbps internet and have very few buffering problems.

Also, I found that I actually watch less TV now than I did with regular cable because it takes more effort to change the channel through a streaming service and I am not longer mindlessly channel surfing.....

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

I live in Murfreesboro and have a Hulu Live, Netflix and Prime Video run through an Amazon FireStick and I don't miss anything I really watched to start with. I am pretty sure that all local channels are streamed through Hulu Live now, so I wouldn't miss any games on NBC, CBS, ABC or Fox. Also, I think I have 150 mbps internet and have very few buffering problems.

Also, I found that I actually watch less TV now than I did with regular cable because it takes more effort to change the channel through a streaming service and I am not longer mindlessly channel surfing.....

I still surf through Netflix, Hulu, ETC. trying to find new things to watch which usually leads to turning the tv off.

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

hehe

 

[Glitch]

hehe

"Sweet ride."

- Amish Guy (Probably)

 

[jakez4ut]

Speaking of being overhyped:



F/+ Projections vs. the Conventional Wisdom | Football Outsiders

Also potentially overrated:

 

[SpringBokVol]

Stop me if you have heard this before - another QB is transferring from LSU.

That is 2 in 2 days.

Only have 2 more left.

 

[mrMet]

I’d love to switch to youtubetv- I’ve been checking it out this month on trial- but the wife and daughter want hgtv and there are some other channels on sling that I like.
I also like that Sling has tons of stuff to watch from the channels that aren’t live.
In my experience Sling has issues with live broadcasts, it buffers on their end for some reason. My internet here at the house is 150mb and I still have some issues during football.
YoutubeTV is more solid, just doesn’t have the right combo of channels.

Hulu has hgtv and is same price as YouTubeTV and has the same sports channels as far as I can see

 

[jakez4ut]

Stop me if you have heard this before - another QB is transferring from LSU.

That is 2 in 2 days.

Only have 2 more left.

i've been saying it all off season...LSU is a dumpster fire waiting to happen. just need a match. looks like one just got lit...lol.

 

[JCLawyerVol]

Hulu has hgtv and is same price as YouTubeTV and has the same sports channels as far as I can see

I'm on about day five of the seven day Hulu Live free trial. Love it.

 

[chargervol]

I see that it only keeps the DVR stuff for 9 months. I sometimes keep movies and games longer (for example I still have 2016 Florida and Georgia DVR'd). Is this accurate?

Basically anything over 9 months old is going to be on YouTube anyway.

 

[bcmbvol]

Thanks for the reply Chatt

 

[jakez4ut]

Stop me if you have heard this before - another QB is transferring from LSU.

That is 2 in 2 days.

Only have 2 more left.

saw this post on tiger droppings....pretty funny. there's a lot of denial going on over there. some even suggesting they can still RS one of the 2 guys they have left...lol.

But bilj is always right. Our program is in terrible shape. There’s a reason everyone in the country has us at 7-5. It’s the purple and gold glasses on this board bringing optimism when in reality we have the worst coach in Ole Miss history trying to right the ship.

also a lot of consternation about the fact today's qb thanked Cam and Les, but no mention for orgeron....lol.

it makes me laugh.

 

[drvenner]

If I could like this post twice, I would.

Statistically, we were such an outlier last year. I took a combination of team talent, returning yards, and athlon’s coaching rank and ran a series of simulations. I found that those three variables predicted the team with the higher Sagarin rating about 80% of the time. So, that being said and since the team talent composite is by far the best predictor, I really like our odds against West Virginia, South Carolina, and Florida. I’m taking the over.

Plenty of people seem to have no trouble at all posting things twice

 

[mrMet]

I'm on about day five of the seven day Hulu Live free trial. Love it.

I think Hulu is what I’m going to try

 

[drvenner]

You took the words right out of my mouth.

As long as it wasn't while he was kissing you. That would be TMI.

 

[Sleegro]

Plenty of people seem to have no trouble at all posting things twice

Seent.

 

[Sleegro]

Plenty of people seem to have no trouble at all posting things twice

Seent

 

[Sleegro]

As long as it wasn't while he was kissing you. That would be TMI.

Well I left that part out. It's only tmi cause you brought it up.

 

[RiotVol]

Plenty of people seem to have no trouble at all posting things twice

Lost me. Did I do something dumb?

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Why Kongbo is primed to flourish in new spot

Entering the 2018 season, Kongbo will be playing his third position in as many seasons for the Vols. While he barely as has many career sacks (3.5) as positions played, maybe, just maybe, Tennessee’s Odysseus has finally found his home.

After a three-year odyssey filled with promises, cryptic tweets and minimal production, is the former 5-star recruit ready to finally fulfill his potential as an outside linebacker in Pruitt’s 3-4 scheme?

“He’s done a really good job this summer learning the position,” Pruitt said.

“He’s a smart guy and he’s worked hard, so we’ll see how he does in camp.”

After working with the defensive lineman in the spring, Kongbo shifted to the linebacker room in June. He dropped around 15 pounds over the summer, too, with co-defensive coordinator and new position coach Chris Rumph believing he’s finally playing at his “natural weight.” Kongbo has always looked like a manimal, though, yet his production simply hasn’t equaled his physique or prophetic promises.

Kongbo's journey from the Congo to Canada and then Arizona Western C.C. has been well-documented, but his short sojourn at Tennessee has been just as laborious.

He balked at playing defensive tackle in 2016, and aside from a 59-yard pick-six against Missouri, had an underwhelming first season in Knoxville. Last year, he made 10 starts at end, but registered just 2.5 tackles for loss and was a part of a unit that ranked in the bottom of the SEC in sacks and run defense.

But Kongbo’s time on Rocky Top has not run out just yet. He still has a chance to accomplish what he came to Tennessee to do.

The senior has one more season to showcase his skills, and there’s a quiet confidence around the program that the light has finally come on for the former Arizona Western product.

”Last year, I know he got puffed up to play inside and whatnot. I think he got out of his natural weight. I think he got up to like 280 pounds or 275 pounds. I don’t think that he’s a natural 275-, 280-pound kid,” Rumph said.

"The weight that he’s at now is something that he’s more comfortable with and can move a bit (better).”

Throughout camp, both in individual drills and during Tennessee’s lone open practice, Kongbo has looked fluid, quick and agile as a stand-up outside linebacker. There’s been no awkward transition.

His stiffness is gone. He’s enthusiastic about the move and he has showcased improved explosiveness off the edge, further boosting Tennessee’s hope that he has found his positional home.

“He seems comfortable,” fellow outside linebacker Darrell Taylor said.

“I think he’s adjusted pretty well to it. … He’s doing good on the practice field and playing with a high level of energy.”

Time will tell whether another position change will ultimately bring out the best in Kongbo, but few players on Tennessee’s roster needed a fresh start more than the 6-foot-6 Canada native.

If the former blue-chip recruit can turn his raw ability into consistent playmaking then Tennessee’s Odysseus will have fulfilled his quest.

Even if took longer than expected.

-- Simonton

 

[WinginFlorida]

Stop me if you have heard this before - another QB is transferring from LSU.

That is 2 in 2 days.

Only have 2 more left.

Didn't they hire a new OC or QB coach?

Going over pretty well, huh?