Reasonable Expectations for Tennessee Football

#1
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WhatInVolnation

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#1
There have been a number of talking heads discussing the outlandish expectations of fan bases and administrations at many P5 programs. I think this is probably true and made all the worse by the historic runs that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are on right now. Other programs are blinded by jealousy--UT included--of these historic runs and many people seem to think those outcomes should be duplicated by their team. I also think the four team playoff has made this all the worse as it involves repeat players each year and has devalued the other bowls and so it is harder to convince a recruit that the Sugar Bowl, or whatever, was a good outcome for your program if you're outside of the playoff.

This got me thinking about reasonable expectations for Tennessee football. I do not think it reasonable to demand an Alabama or Clemson type run, although I would love to go on one.

Here are my expectations (reasonable or not) over the course of a decade:

1. UT is never referred to as a trap game for any team. In an up or down year, UT is capable of winning each game or at least presenting a challenge even if the other team plays well.

2. UT loses no more than one game a year by 10+ and only once a decade by 20+. In other words, game in and out, UT is competitive but recognizing that nearly every team loses at times by 10+.

3. UT has a losing streak of no more than four in a row to any team.

4. UT averages a 9-3 regular season record. The worst record is no worse than 6-6 in a down year and you hope there's at least one magical run of 15-0 or better.

5. UT fields a team capable of winning, but not necessarily winning, the SEC 3-4 times.

6. UT wins the SEC East 2-3 times.

7. UT wins the SEC 1-2 times.

8. UT makes the playoff 1-2 times.

9. UT averages a top 10 recruiting class.
 
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#4
#4
WhatInVolnation said:
There have been a number of talking heads discussing the outlandish expectations of fan bases and administrations at many P5 programs. I think this is probably true and made all the worse by the historic runs that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are on right now. Other programs are blinded by jealousy--UT included--of these historic runs and many people seem to think those outcomes should be duplicated by their team. I also think the four team playoff has made this all the worse as it involves repeat players each year and has devalued the other bowls and so it is harder to convince a recruit that the Sugar Bowl, or whatever, was a good outcome for your program if you're outside of the playoff.

This got me thinking about reasonable expectations for Tennessee football. I do not think it reasonable to demand an Alabama or Clemson type run, although I would love to go on one.

Here are my expectations (reasonable or not) over the course of a decade:

1. UT is never referred to as a trap game for any team. In an up or down year, UT is capable of winning each game or at least presenting a challenge even if the other team plays well.

2. UT loses no more than one game a year by 10+ and only once a decade by 20+. In other words, game in and out, UT is competitive but recognizing that nearly every team loses at times by 10+.

3. UT has a losing streak of no more than four in a row to any team.

4. UT averages a 9-3 regular season record. The worst record is no worse than 6-6 in a down year and you hope there's at least one magical run of 15-0 or better.

5. UT fields a team capable of winning, but not necessarily winning, the SEC 3-4 times.

6. UT wins the SEC East 2-3 times.

7. UT wins the SEC 1-2 times.

8. UT makes the playoff 1-2 times.

9. UT averages a top 10 recruiting class.
Click to expand...
I would generally agree with these except for 2 and 3. Blowout happen in CFB, they just do. Even to good teams. To only lose by 20 once every ten years is a lot. Losing streaks happen to, even for championship programs. What is embarrassing is losing like 15 in a row, mostly in blowout fashion. Totally uncompetitive. Yeah, don’t do that.
 
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#5
#5
WhatInVolnation said:
There have been a number of talking heads discussing the outlandish expectations of fan bases and administrations at many P5 programs. I think this is probably true and made all the worse by the historic runs that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are on right now. Other programs are blinded by jealousy--UT included--of these historic runs and many people seem to think those outcomes should be duplicated by their team. I also think the four team playoff has made this all the worse as it involves repeat players each year and has devalued the other bowls and so it is harder to convince a recruit that the Sugar Bowl, or whatever, was a good outcome for your program if you're outside of the playoff.

This got me thinking about reasonable expectations for Tennessee football. I do not think it reasonable to demand an Alabama or Clemson type run, although I would love to go on one.

Here are my expectations (reasonable or not) over the course of a decade:

1. UT is never referred to as a trap game for any team. In an up or down year, UT is capable of winning each game or at least presenting a challenge even if the other team plays well.

2. UT loses no more than one game a year by 10+ and only once a decade by 20+. In other words, game in and out, UT is competitive but recognizing that nearly every team loses at times by 10+.

3. UT has a losing streak of no more than four in a row to any team.

4. UT averages a 9-3 regular season record. The worst record is no worse than 6-6 in a down year and you hope there's at least one magical run of 15-0 or better.

5. UT fields a team capable of winning, but not necessarily winning, the SEC 3-4 times.

6. UT wins the SEC East 2-3 times.

7. UT wins the SEC 1-2 times.

8. UT makes the playoff 1-2 times.

9. UT averages a top 10 recruiting class.
Click to expand...

Reasonable or not? Gene Rayburn, I will take B. The way these knuckleheads are handling it, it might be one decade in a lifetime.
 
#8
#8
By Y3 under any coach, UT should:

1. Be an 8 or 9 win team (5-3 in conference)
2. Be competitive in the games you lose. The Bama, UF, and UK games shouldn't be over 5 mins into the second half (or earlier). Yes, Bama is great and yes, you may have a bad day but this shouldn't be the status quo.
4. Ranked in the Top 20 at the end of the season.


This should be the baseline at UT. Failure to approach these minimal targets should be enough for termination. Even Butch Jones hit these targets.


How does this baseline compare to this year?

1. This team will likely win 20 or 30 percent of its conference games. That's less than half of the baseline of 62.5%. A 6-4 season would have met this baseline and would be in pretty close to Vegas expectations.

2. Ummm, 6 straight double digit losses

3. Yeah, this ain't happening.
 
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#9
#9
Yeah I don't know, maybe actually compete for your division every 4/5 seasons. In the last 10 years We've seen Ky, MZ, Vandy, Miss St etc put together strong seasons. Meanwhile we're over here flopping around like a two pound bass on the banks of Douglas in August.
 
#11
#11
We should be in the discussion for the SECE every year, and should give the Big 3 on our schedule all they want.

We should be in the top 6 in the SEC recruiting every year.

We should finish AP/Coaches top 25 yearly, top 15 every other year, and maybe make some top 5 appearances after we win a NY6 bowl game.

We should not get blown out by anyone, barring major injuries to star players or other freaky issues.

Opposing teams should HATE coming to Neyland, not come for a tour, nostalgia, or relaxing vacay.
 
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#12
#12
I don’t have a W-L expectation, I have the expectation to compete with everyone on our schedule. Beating Bama, Georgia, Florida isn’t even a realistic thought anymore. Hell, we didn’t compete with Kentucky and that was the day I decided to no longer supported Jeremy Pruitt.

Anyone looking objectively at Pruitt’s record has to see that he’s incapable of being a successful head coach in the SEC. Home losses to Georgia State, BYU and a beat down by UK tells the fans, administrators, athletic department, boosters and recruits what they need to know.
 
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#14
#14
IMO, for a program like ours with the resources and fan support we have, 8-4 should be the absolute floor and that's on a down year.

We should be in the hunt for the SECE almost every year and win the SEC, on average, every 4 years.

Also a program like ours should never EVER lose to teams like Mizzou, Kentucky, Vandy, South Carolina, Miss St, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. The only programs that should ever be a serious threat to beat us are Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M.
 
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#16
#16
I think our ceiling is the Neyland-Barnhill decades: 83% win rate (11-1 or 12-2 record on a "normal" year), win the SEC every 3rd year on average, and a national championship every 5th or 6th year.

That's not reasonable to expect. To hope for, sure. But that only happens when you find a Neyland, Bryant, or Saban. Not often.

What we can and should expect of our Vols is the next tier: Fulmer level of success. 75% win rate (10-3 in a "normal" year), national title once every decade or decade and a half, SEC champions every 5th year, SEC East champs every 3rd year.

That is, in my opinion, what we're searching for. Where we will be when we finally declare ourselves "back." In competition with Florida and Georgia for the East, every year. Split wins with them pretty evenly, year in and year out. And with Bama, too. Win our share of the big games.

Not so worried about games being close in score. That's a metric that has less and less applicability as the balance continues to shift toward offenses. The higher the score of the average game, the bigger the gap between winner and loser will be. A 14-10 game sounds a lot closer than a 41-30 result, but they're effectively the same ratio of scoring, the latter just having a lot more of it for both teams than the former.

So yeah. We get back to Fulmer quality outcomes, and we'll be back where we belong.

That's how I see it, anyway.

Go Vols!
 
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#17
#17
UT is all about that season ticket and donation money. Hire a dollar tree coach for 3-4 million and rake in the money and throw a team out on the field like the one we are seeing now and have been seeing for the last 15 year and keep repeating the same thing every 4-5 years. As long as fans keep buying tickets and showing up then nothing is going to change.
 
#18
#18
tnvols72 said:
UT is all about that season ticket and donation money. Hire a dollar tree coach for 3-4 million and rake in the money and throw a team out on the field like the one we are seeing now and have been seeing for the last 15 year and keep repeating the same thing every 4-5 years. As long as fans keep buying tickets and showing up then nothing is going to change.
Click to expand...
We hear this from time to time. "University leadership don't care about championships. Comfortable with mediocrity as long as the $$ flows."

But I've never seen a single bit of proof that's true. That they don't care. In fact, all available evidence, and sheer logic, say the opposite.

Sure, there's plenty of evidence of outcomes. We've stunk it up most of the past 12 years (12, not 15 -- most of us would be thrilled with a 2006 or 2007 season, right about now. The bottom fell out in 2008). But none of that goes to intent.

So I'm not buying it. I think our leaders would love deeply for our football program to be great, just as they want our academic reputation to be outstanding. But we all know wanting something and finding it, securing it, those are different things. They just haven't done the latter lately. Not since Phillip Fulmer's departure. It's not a lack of desire; it's a lack of skill-- at picking talented, champion-caliber coaches.

That's how it seems to me.
 
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#19
#19
It depends.
What should they be?
Or what they are based on the current conditions?
 
#20
#20
25801VOL said:
I don’t have a W-L expectation, I have the expectation to compete with everyone on our schedule. Beating Bama, Georgia, Florida isn’t even a realistic thought anymore. Hell, we didn’t compete with Kentucky and that was the day I decided to no longer supported Jeremy Pruitt.

Anyone looking objectively at Pruitt’s record has to see that he’s incapable of being a successful head coach in the SEC. Home losses to Georgia State, BYU and a beat down by UK tells the fans, administrators, athletic department, boosters and recruits what they need to know.
Click to expand...


My thoughts exactly!!!! I was a supporter of Pruitts even with the way the Alabama and Georgia games went and was still holding out hope he could turn it around but to lose to Kitty cats like that on your own home field is just as bad as losing to Ga. St and a lot worse then losing to BYU. I hate the thought of starting over but it can not be as bad as this!!!!!!!
 
#21
#21
For this season? 7 wins, close game against Bama and beat either Georgia or Florida. After last season ended, I don’t think it was asking too much.
 
#22
#22
It begins at the top. Hell, look at Oklahoma. Big mistake in my opinion on how they handled the Mixon situation, but their president and AD (AD of the year the last 3 years or so btw) put their asses in the fire. Why??? Because they want to win and know the base wants to win. You think Fulmer would do that?? Nope
 
#23
#23
At a minimum, it is a reasonable expectation for Tennessee to participate in a New Year's Six bowl every year.
 
#24
#24
ftsandersvol said:
At a minimum, it is a reasonable expectation for Tennessee to participate in a New Year's Six bowl every year.
Click to expand...
That's a little high. That's pretty much the equivalent of saying we should be in the SEC championship game every year.

Only 12 teams get to the NY6 bowls. Normally, that comes out, more or less, as: 2 or 3 from SEC, 2 or 3 from B10, 1 from ACC, 1 or 2 from PAC, and 1 or 2 from B12, plus Notre Dame and one from the Group of 5.

So if it's 2 or 3 from the SEC, that's pretty much the two teams who made it to the SEC championship game, plus sometimes (not always) another team who just missed out.

So you're saying we should be in Atlanta every year, more or less.

I think that's a little bit too much to expect from anyone short of General Neyland. And there aren't too many of him running around.
 
#25
#25
VFL-82-JP said:
We hear this from time to time. "University leadership don't care about championships. Comfortable with mediocrity as long as the $$ flows."

But I've never seen a single bit of proof that's true. That they don't care. In fact, all available evidence, and sheer logic, say the opposite.

Sure, there's plenty of evidence of outcomes. We've stunk it up most of the past 12 years (12, not 15 -- most of us would be thrilled with a 2006 or 2007 season, right about now. The bottom fell out in 2008). But none of that goes to intent.

So I'm not buying it. I think our leaders would love deeply for our football program to be great, just as they want our academic reputation to be outstanding. But we all know wanting something and finding it, securing it, those are different things. They just haven't done the latter lately. Not since Phillip Fulmer's departure. It's not a lack of desire; it's a lack of skill-- at picking talented, champion-caliber coaches.

That's how it seems to me.
Click to expand...
There's evidence at minimum that the people calling the shots are inept. Since the departure of Phil Fulmer, we've hired 4 head coaches - only one of which had significant experience has a head coach in college football with a winning record.
 
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