lawgator1
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Ok, I've reviewed the rankings and remaining schedules, and the scenarios for a BCS national champion are actually fairly straightforward.
First, let's eliminate the Big East and the ACC from contention. Seems obvious that none of them have a prayer.
From the PAC-10, the only two teams that can get it done this year are Oregon and Arizona, and so yes I am ruling out the Cardinal this year. USC not eligible.
Arizona has to go to Oregon. Let's give the nod to Oregon in that one. Oregon v. USC should tell the tale of whether the Ducks can make a case for the BCS title game.
From the SEC, there are a whopping six teams that still have a shot (I say any SEC team is in it until they get knocked off, but that's my bias).
I think Alabama is too good not to win the conference this year. The question is, will they have a loss to go along with that, and if they do, will it keep them out of the title game if others are undefeated?
Alabama gets UF at home and would probably beat them in Gainesville this year, anyway. Unless Florida shows a massive improvement in a hurry, I think the Tide wins that one.
But, the Tide go to Arky, USCe, and LSU. They also play Auburn at home. So they play each of the other five SEC contenders. I see them losing either the USCe or LSU games. If its the USCe game, that's in early October and so there is time for them to recover in terms of the rankings part of the BCS formula. If its LSU, or if they look past what might be a 2-3 loss Auburn team towards the SECCG, Alabama with a late season loss might not be able to recover.
Ohio State has a very manageable schedule, despite a road trip to Wisconsin. And Pryor is prooving to be every bit as good as advertised. Still, the Buckeyes only beat a fair to middling UM team, at home, by 12. I am counting the Buckeyes out of it.
Boise State. They have just one even remotely decent opponent left, and that is Oregon State, this weekend. After that, its a cakewalk. The win over Va Tech is severely diminished by the Hokies' loss to Jame freakin' Madison.
If Va Tech loses another game or two on top of the two so far, the hit to BSU's SOS will be substantial. If Vat Tech rights the ship and wins the ACC, then BSU will be lording that over everyone at the end of the year (as though winning the ACC should mean anything other than having a team pizza party).
TCU. They don't play anybody else. I don't count going to Utah as much of anything special. So watch out for TCU at the end of the year. Seriously. They don't play anyone.
Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma. First, Oklahoma you have to like winning their division. Texas has to play them both. Back to back. I think that the Big 12 game is going to be Oklahoma v. Nebraska, and right now I like Nebraska in that game.
Similar to Alabama, however, the question is whether Nebraska will have a loss on board? Other than Texas, who they get in Lincoln, no one else should threaten. I like Nebraska to beat Texas, and then OU.
So, the teams with best shots at the game are, IMO, Alabama, BSU, Oregon, Nebraska, and TCU.
I am going to assume that the Tide blow one along the way. Even though they are the best team in the country, their schedule is loaded with quality teams the rest of the way. And who knows, by the time of the SECCG Florida might have turned it around and if they win the East that's a tough rematch for the Tide.
I am also going to assume that Oregon stumbles. Probably to USC, even though it sure seems that Oregon is better. I wouldn't be surprised if they got it done, but they are a PAC 10 team and it seems they always throw in a clunker in a half empty stadium when no one is watching.
I think what we are looking at is Nebraska versus wither BSU or TCU. BSU is in the driver's seat, but they are now huge fans of Va. Tech to figure things out. I'm not sure what the prognosticators think of the math right now as between the two of them, but any leap frogging of TCU over BSU pretty much dooms BSU because they don't play anybody that can help them get it back.
Regardless of whether Nebraska ends up with TCU or BSU, they will blow them out. If its BSU, it will get some feel good ratings -- until the second quarter when Nebraska is up by three TD's. If its TCU, it will have abysmal ratings. Nebraska in a laugher either way.
Winner: Nebraska.
First, let's eliminate the Big East and the ACC from contention. Seems obvious that none of them have a prayer.
From the PAC-10, the only two teams that can get it done this year are Oregon and Arizona, and so yes I am ruling out the Cardinal this year. USC not eligible.
Arizona has to go to Oregon. Let's give the nod to Oregon in that one. Oregon v. USC should tell the tale of whether the Ducks can make a case for the BCS title game.
From the SEC, there are a whopping six teams that still have a shot (I say any SEC team is in it until they get knocked off, but that's my bias).
I think Alabama is too good not to win the conference this year. The question is, will they have a loss to go along with that, and if they do, will it keep them out of the title game if others are undefeated?
Alabama gets UF at home and would probably beat them in Gainesville this year, anyway. Unless Florida shows a massive improvement in a hurry, I think the Tide wins that one.
But, the Tide go to Arky, USCe, and LSU. They also play Auburn at home. So they play each of the other five SEC contenders. I see them losing either the USCe or LSU games. If its the USCe game, that's in early October and so there is time for them to recover in terms of the rankings part of the BCS formula. If its LSU, or if they look past what might be a 2-3 loss Auburn team towards the SECCG, Alabama with a late season loss might not be able to recover.
Ohio State has a very manageable schedule, despite a road trip to Wisconsin. And Pryor is prooving to be every bit as good as advertised. Still, the Buckeyes only beat a fair to middling UM team, at home, by 12. I am counting the Buckeyes out of it.
Boise State. They have just one even remotely decent opponent left, and that is Oregon State, this weekend. After that, its a cakewalk. The win over Va Tech is severely diminished by the Hokies' loss to Jame freakin' Madison.
If Va Tech loses another game or two on top of the two so far, the hit to BSU's SOS will be substantial. If Vat Tech rights the ship and wins the ACC, then BSU will be lording that over everyone at the end of the year (as though winning the ACC should mean anything other than having a team pizza party).
TCU. They don't play anybody else. I don't count going to Utah as much of anything special. So watch out for TCU at the end of the year. Seriously. They don't play anyone.
Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma. First, Oklahoma you have to like winning their division. Texas has to play them both. Back to back. I think that the Big 12 game is going to be Oklahoma v. Nebraska, and right now I like Nebraska in that game.
Similar to Alabama, however, the question is whether Nebraska will have a loss on board? Other than Texas, who they get in Lincoln, no one else should threaten. I like Nebraska to beat Texas, and then OU.
So, the teams with best shots at the game are, IMO, Alabama, BSU, Oregon, Nebraska, and TCU.
I am going to assume that the Tide blow one along the way. Even though they are the best team in the country, their schedule is loaded with quality teams the rest of the way. And who knows, by the time of the SECCG Florida might have turned it around and if they win the East that's a tough rematch for the Tide.
I am also going to assume that Oregon stumbles. Probably to USC, even though it sure seems that Oregon is better. I wouldn't be surprised if they got it done, but they are a PAC 10 team and it seems they always throw in a clunker in a half empty stadium when no one is watching.
I think what we are looking at is Nebraska versus wither BSU or TCU. BSU is in the driver's seat, but they are now huge fans of Va. Tech to figure things out. I'm not sure what the prognosticators think of the math right now as between the two of them, but any leap frogging of TCU over BSU pretty much dooms BSU because they don't play anybody that can help them get it back.
Regardless of whether Nebraska ends up with TCU or BSU, they will blow them out. If its BSU, it will get some feel good ratings -- until the second quarter when Nebraska is up by three TD's. If its TCU, it will have abysmal ratings. Nebraska in a laugher either way.
Winner: Nebraska.
Who is to say that SC won't win the SECE? This is the year for them to step up to the plate and do it. SC has a tough schedule to get by, but they look better than FLA imo. I'm interested in seeing if both Kentucky and SC can step up to end the streak against Florida.
