Realistic expectations for JA this year

[BearBryant]

Well the season is almost upon us and I thought now is a good time to post this. I did this for Milton and Nico and almost all of us were wayyyyy off. So let’s try it again.

What are your realistic expectations for JA this year? I think he goes for:

62%
2900+ yards
26 TDs
12 INTs
500 yards rushing
8 rushing TDs

Anyway, Whats everyone else’s thoughts?

Heisman Trophy

 

[RDU VOL#14]

He's thrown for +3,000 yards and +10 picks every season so far. I imagine the yards will go down with our RB stable, but I do think the double-digit picks trends continues.

Why?

 

[Vol865]

I will take the same number's that other guy had last year:

• YDS
  2,616
• TD
  19
• INT
  5
• QBR
  70.5

Basically what I'm using as a baseline but I'm gonna go like
2850 yds, 23 TDs, 9 INTs

 

[Vol_knuckles]

3200 yds, 28 td, 6 int
200 yds rushing 3 td

 

[Redleg68]

He's thrown for +3,000 yards and +10 picks every season so far. I imagine the yards will go down with our RB stable, but I do think the double-digit picks trends continues.

JH"s schemes protects the QB as he generally is not throwing into tight spots. Go back and look at Hooker's game film. Most completions did not have a receiver within 4 0r 5 yards os the receiver

 

[SubVet676]

Fun thread. Thanks, BOT. So let’s have fun with it…

I took Nico’s 2024 stats, and Joey’s 2023 stats. Line them up side-by-side, shook out the chicken bones, and here’s what I came up with.:

65%
3000 yds
25 TD
10 INT
350 R/YDS
5 TD

Annnd…
13.8 YPC
76.5 QBR

 

[CINCYVOL]

If he can hit half of the deep balls that Milton and Nico overthrew consistently, he will have a good year and so will the offense

 

[Carp]

3100 yards combined passing and throwing. 28 total TDs. 65% completion percentage. 7 INTs. 10-2 as a starter in the regular season. 3rd team All SEC.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

If he can hit half of the deep balls that Milton and Nico overthrew consistently, he will have a good year and so will the offense

Exactly. If JA hits a few deep balls the entire trajectory changes. Even when Bama and Florida had 2 safeties back, we split the safeties several times and had guys running open, it’s a completely different game.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

In the Heisman conversation

My new screen name: JoeyAguillartransferfromAppalachianStateviaUCLAforHeisman

 

[volfan411]

JH"s schemes protects the QB as he generally is not throwing into tight spots. Go back and look at Hooker's game film. Most completions did not have a receiver within 4 0r 5 yards os the receiver

Because Hooker made the right reads but the last 2 QB's did not therefore we seen more defended passes. Question is can JA make those same reads??

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

My new screen name: JoeyAguillartransferfromAppalachianStateviaUCLAforHeisman

Dont give me any ideas

 

[VolCalls]

Don’t be such a Debbie Downer.. it’s fixin’ to be ‘football time in Tennessee’ … anything is possible and that’s the truth

So sharing info from people in the know when it's not rainbows and unicorns is frowned upon? OK. I'm as excited as the next person about football season but I also manage my own expectations - it makes the games more fun.

 

[VolCalls]

Oh, yeah, you know it all. You are just full of ****! Your predictions are going to prove you are full of **** when JA is better than both Milton and Nico!

OK my man. You do you. Might want to bring this up with your therapist.

 

[Volador]

If he puts up those numbers we are looking at another playoff appearance at least, maybe more

Stop the negavoltivity!!!!! He WILL put up those kind of numbers!! Go Vols!

 

[TNinSC]

Why?

he's thrown for double digit picks both seasons playing against sunbelt defenses and now he's in the SEC. i saw dude at that gsu/app state game this past december. he was forced to scramble a lot and try to make plays. he threw for almost 300 yards in the game with 2 td's, but he also threw 2 int's that game. last season, he attempted more than 30 passes in a game in all but 4 games. Nico made +30 pass attempts in only 3 games. hopefully, with lewis, bishop, and thomas to hand off to, CJH can cut down those passing attempts.

 

[sjt18]

So he threw 9 INT’s between the numbers?? That really ties the hands of whoever is calling plays in that trend continues.

That's true but UT doesn't throw a ton between the hashes under Heupel. I've actually mentioned here that I wish they would. But I think philosophically Heupel wants to un-clutter the middle of the field to open up the run game.

That doesn't mean JA won't take bad chances to the middle of the field. It just may mean that Heupel will ask him to do so less than maybe ASU did.

 

[sjt18]

The former - I don’t put much stock into online content from journalists.

OK. Noted. Not that anyone's opinion can't be wrong... Observers of practice thought Milton was about to be all-world.

 

[VolCalls]

OK. Noted. Not that anyone's opinion can't be wrong... Observers of practice thought Milton was about to be all-world.

Sure. You know what they say: "Opinions are like a-------. Everybody has one."

 

[RDU VOL#14]

he's thrown for double digit picks both seasons playing against sunbelt defenses and now he's in the SEC. i saw dude at that gsu/app state game this past december. he was forced to scramble a lot and try to make plays. he threw for almost 300 yards in the game with 2 td's, but he also threw 2 int's that game. last season, he attempted more than 30 passes in a game in all but 4 games. Nico made +30 pass attempts in only 3 games. hopefully, with lewis, bishop, and thomas to hand off to, CJH can cut down those passing attempts.

I think and hope you hit the nail on the head here. App had a really bad season and their coach got fired, which is rare in Boone. It sounds like he was forced or felt like he had to make extra plays and that resulted in attempting more throws in obvious passing situations. Like you said, he’s gonna have a run game and potentially a very strong defense to take the pressure off. Plus, Heupel and Hazley really don’t put our quarterbacks in tough spots to throw picks.

 

[Pride85]

Good. Hopefully what was conveyed to me by lifelong football guys watching in person was an anomaly.

Well, he is a lifelong VFL who watched the scrimmage in person. Being a top ten all time receiver for UT might give him some background on how well a QB is getting the job done.

 

[HooahVol]

Did he throw a lot of interceptions at App State because of the receivers or because of reckless throws? I honestly do not know. I think Heupel will keep him mainly throwing high percentage throws with tempo with an occasional long ball to keep the defense honest.

 

[anbailey76]

Heupel will never allow his QB to throw anywhere near double-digit INTs. This offense is designed that way.

 

[TNinSC]

I think and hope you hit the nail on the head here. App had a really bad season and their coach got fired, which is rare in Boone. It sounds like he was forced or felt like he had to make extra plays and that resulted in attempting more throws in obvious passing situations. Like you said, he’s gonna have a run game and potentially a very strong defense to take the pressure off. Plus, Heupel and Hazley really don’t put our quarterbacks in tough spots to throw picks.

yeah, nico made alot less pass attempts. i think he only threw it more than 30 times a game three times? with a bowl game added to the schedule. i hope CJH tweaks this and schematically influences less pass attempts. the past two seasons have seemed like more simpler offensive play calling on account of hooker and golesh moved on. i was hoping we'd see nico have the reigns taken off this season, but yeah...

 

[RDU VOL#14]

yeah, nico made alot less pass attempts. i think he only threw it more than 30 times a game three times? with a bowl game added to the schedule. i hope CJH tweaks this and schematically influences less pass attempts. the past two seasons have seemed like more simpler offensive play calling on account of hooker and golesh moved on. i was hoping we'd see nico have the reigns taken off this season, but yeah...

I think we coached around Nico and protected him a lot. He was/ is still learning how to see the field and read defenses. There a lot of times where he was very indecisive with the ball and either made a bad decision or tucked it. I don’t think that will be an issue w/ Aguilar. Everyone thinks he’s going to let it rip, at least down field. If we can hit a few deep balls that Milton and Nico were consistently not connecting on, we will be in good shape.