I know some will question "real analysis", but this will be better than all the drunk armchair wannabe coaches that have never coached a day in their lives.
Josh Heupel has won 70% of his games at Tennessee (that is 75% when you through out his first year). This stat alone is amazing, especially when you realize the program he inherited. The only Tennessee coaches that had similar coaching records were General Neyland and Philip Fulmer (the only two coaches to win national titles at Tennessee). Even good ole Johnny Majors only had a 65% winning record. Oh, and the prior four coaches had between 45% and 55%, just in case some of you have forgotten.
This year's Tennessee team was the first team since Fulmer to have over 50% of the roster be blue-chip athletes (this is considered a must to win a national championship, since no team has won a national championship in the modern era with less than 51%). Heupel's next class will move this closer to 60%. For comparison, the top four programs (Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Texas) have over 80%. So, other than a rare year, you really need closer to 80% to compete for a national title. Again, Heupel inherited 38% and has us closing in on 60%.
Doing a fair analysis of a coach isn't about one game, one loss, or one season; it is about his overall performance while head coaching. I think a fair analysis of Heupel's shortcomings would reveal lack of effective halftime adjustments (Heupel creates incredible pre-game game plans; however, other really good coaches make necessary adjustments and we lose in the second half sometimes due to this to the great teams). Additionally, it appears that time management, especially at the end of a half or the game has become an issue. However, both of these are manageable. Either Heupel can get some professional development in these areas or have an assistant coach who is good at them take these responsibilities.
While I honestly don't recognize Volnation anymore (which is why I come in here less and less), Tennessee is a good program who is close to making the leap into the upper echelon of teams again (those who three out of four years are in the playoffs). This list of teams is less than ten! So, while it has been a tough season, just think about what Heupel and company did it with. They took a former juco-App State QB and plugged him into the system with just fall practice to learn everything and now he is good enough to at least get a look as a free agent in the NFL. No other coach or team is coaching players up at this level.
So, whine all you want. Make all your negavol posts, but Heupel hopefully will be here for another ten years with AD Danny White. If so, it will give us our best chance at another special season ending with a National Championship!
