DiderotsGhost
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I felt the need to write and do some data analysis today, and I decided to take a look at all the SEC Quarterbacks. I've long felt that JG is underrated and I think the numbers showcase it. Here's my rankings for all the SEC QBs.
The Elite
(1a) Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama. Nick Saban has had some good quarterbacks in his time at Alabama, but Tua may be the best of all. Tua is averaging an awe-inspiring 14.3 yards per attempt. Albeit, Tua is helped immensely by an all-world cast surrounding him, and the best running game in America, but even with that, he's thrown 0 interceptions in 123 pass attempts and 7 games.
(1b) Jalen Hurts, Alabama. It's insane to even consider the fact that Alabama may have the two best QBs in the SEC both on its roster. Last season, Hurts ran for 855 yards, which we should note is more than Josh Dobbs ran for in 2016. Hurts is also a better passer than Dobbs. He's completed 74% of his passes this season and has only 1 INT in 50 pass attempts. Last season, he also only threw 1 INT in 254 attempts. For the two years combined, that's 1 INT per 152 attempts. That is extremely good. Hurts' one weakness is that he's not as good at spreading the field as Tua, but if we're being honest, there are 13 teams in the SEC that would be better off with Hurts than their current QB.
(2) Jordan Ta'amu, Ole Miss. Ole Miss’s recruiting efforts have been hurt by being on probation, but for now, they still have many playmakers among their leaders. Jordan Ta’amu is a major reason why Ole Miss is 5-2 right now. He’s averaging 10.4 ypa with a 65.8% completion ratio. This is even more impressive given that Ole Miss has a more pass-heavy offense than many other SEC teams. He’s thrown only 1 INT per 44 pass attempts and has a 170.5 rating. He’s also rushed for 253 yards.
The Very Good
(3) Kellen Mond, A&M. It’s a tough call at #3, but I’m going with Kellen Mond. Mond has a 61.7% completion rate and averages 8.4 ypa, with an INT per 43 attempts. What gives Mond the edge here over Fromm and Guarantano is his running ability. He’s amassed 255 yards in 7 games.
(4) Jake Fromm, Georgia. Fromm had a poor game against LSU, which is a good reminder that he’s still not an elite SEC QB. That said, he’s been pretty good, albeit, with one of the strongest supporting casts surrounding him. Fromm has a 67% completion rate, averages 9.5 ypa, with an INT every 37 attempts. He has a QB rating of 170.
(5) Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee. JG is easily the most underrated SEC QB right now. He’s not quite elite and he still has a way to go, but given the fact that he has dealt with one of the worst O-line situations in the SEC, his stats are very impressive. JG is averaging 9.03 ypa with a 64% completion rate. His rating is 152.5, which is one of the best in the SEC (even ahead of Mond). While his stats will likely take a hit against Bama this week, for now, he has the highest ypa average at Tennessee in the past 24 years (edging out 2012 Tyler Bray, 2001 Casey Clausen, 2006 Erik Ainge, and even 1996 Peyton Manning). Most impressively is that JG only has 1 INT per 63 pass attempts, which only puts him behind Tua and Joe Burrow in the SEC. JG is one of the best deep passers in the SEC right now and he showed off his skills versus Auburn. Hopefully, there’s more to come, but there’s a case that JG should be even higher when you account for Tennessee’s strength of schedule (9th in the NCAA) and the OL struggles.
The Good
(6) Jarrett Stidham, Auburn. At the beginning of the season, I would've put Stidham in the top 3 SEC QBs. He's slipped a bit this season. In spite of a horrid game at Tennessee, Stidham is still in the top half of the SEC. He has a 61% completion rate and averages 7 ypa. He’s thrown 1 INT for every 53 attempts. These aren’t terrible numbers, but he’s clearly taken a step backwards from last season. At least some of that, however, can likely be attributed to a weaker supporting cast on offense. For that reason, I'm still keeping him at #6, though, based purely on stats this season, you could put him lower.
(7) Joe Burrow, LSU. Burrow has been solid, but not spectacular. He’s been the game manager LSU has needed, but the Tigers have been winning with a strong defense and rushing attack more so than with the passing game. Burrow has a mere 53.3% completion rate and a decent 7.3 ypa average. However, he’s only thrown 1 INT per 98 attempts, which is 2nd only to Tua. He’s also rushed for 242 yards. Burrow is basically the Trent Dilfer of the SEC right now.
(8) Feleipe Franks, Florida. I’m surprised I’m putting Franks this high, but he’s improved significantly under Dan Mullen. He’s averaging 7.7 ypa with a 143 rating. He has 1 INT per 36 attempts. He’s also run for 126 yards.
The Solid
(9) Kyle Shurmur, Vanderbilt. Shurmur has a 59% completion rate and averages 7.3 ypa with 1 INT per 45 attempts, and a rating of 132. Given that Shurmur is in one of the weaker offenses in the SEC and has a more pass-reliant attack, I think we can also say that Shurmur’s numbers should be adjusted upwards when compared to some others.
(10) Drew Lock, Mizzou. At the beginning of the season, I would have told you Drew Lock could be the best QB in the SEC East. Right now, it’s obvious that isn’t true. Perhaps it’s the Dooley effect or maybe it’s just that he stopped improving from last season. He’s averaging 7.3 ypa with a 58% completion rate, but he also has an INT for every 37 attempts. That said, Mizzou has the #4 rated strength of schedule in the country, so it’s possible Lock’s numbers pick up during the late stretch of the season.
The Struggling
(11) Jake Bentley, South Carolina. Bentley’s numbers aren’t bad, but he’s been way too mistake prone. He’s averaging 6.9 ypa with a 130 rating, but he throws an INT every 24 pass attempts.
(12) Nick Fitzgerald, Miss State. The Dan Mullen affect seems to be in reverse here. While Feleipe Franks has improved from last season with Mullen as coach, Fitzgerald has gotten worse. Without Mullen, it’s also become more obvious that Fitzgerald is a Running Back masquerading as a Quarterback. Fitzgerald is averaging a weak 5.8 ypa and has a horrendous 49.6% completion rate in a run-heavy offense. He's about average in the interception department, throwing 1 INT per 41 attempts, but he’s also only throw for 4 TDs, which is the 2nd worst for any starting QB in the SEC. The only reason he’s not last is because he’s rushed for 513 yards in 6 games, just short of 100 yards per game. That running threat is probably enough to put him at #12.
The Bottom of the Pack
(13) Terry Wilson, Kentucky. Kentucky may be 5-1 and the #14 team in the country, but it’s not because of their passing attack. Wilson's completion rate is good at 66.4%, but he only averages 6.2 ypa, which is incredibly low given the high completion rate. In comparison, JG is at 64% and 9.0 ypa, which should tell you immediately that Wilson isn’t much of a deep threat passer. What’s much worse is that Wilson averages an INT per 23 attempts, which is one of the worst ratios in the SEC. He has, however, rushed for 304 yards in 6 games, providing Kentucky with another rushing weapon alongside Benny Snell.
(14) Ty Storey, Arkansas. Arkansas has been the worst SEC team by far this season. Perhaps no surprise that they also have the worst starting QB. Storey has completed 57% of his passes for a 6.9 ypa average. He throws an INT every 28 attempts. He has rushed for 177 yards, however.
The Elite
(1a) Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama. Nick Saban has had some good quarterbacks in his time at Alabama, but Tua may be the best of all. Tua is averaging an awe-inspiring 14.3 yards per attempt. Albeit, Tua is helped immensely by an all-world cast surrounding him, and the best running game in America, but even with that, he's thrown 0 interceptions in 123 pass attempts and 7 games.
(1b) Jalen Hurts, Alabama. It's insane to even consider the fact that Alabama may have the two best QBs in the SEC both on its roster. Last season, Hurts ran for 855 yards, which we should note is more than Josh Dobbs ran for in 2016. Hurts is also a better passer than Dobbs. He's completed 74% of his passes this season and has only 1 INT in 50 pass attempts. Last season, he also only threw 1 INT in 254 attempts. For the two years combined, that's 1 INT per 152 attempts. That is extremely good. Hurts' one weakness is that he's not as good at spreading the field as Tua, but if we're being honest, there are 13 teams in the SEC that would be better off with Hurts than their current QB.
(2) Jordan Ta'amu, Ole Miss. Ole Miss’s recruiting efforts have been hurt by being on probation, but for now, they still have many playmakers among their leaders. Jordan Ta’amu is a major reason why Ole Miss is 5-2 right now. He’s averaging 10.4 ypa with a 65.8% completion ratio. This is even more impressive given that Ole Miss has a more pass-heavy offense than many other SEC teams. He’s thrown only 1 INT per 44 pass attempts and has a 170.5 rating. He’s also rushed for 253 yards.
The Very Good
(3) Kellen Mond, A&M. It’s a tough call at #3, but I’m going with Kellen Mond. Mond has a 61.7% completion rate and averages 8.4 ypa, with an INT per 43 attempts. What gives Mond the edge here over Fromm and Guarantano is his running ability. He’s amassed 255 yards in 7 games.
(4) Jake Fromm, Georgia. Fromm had a poor game against LSU, which is a good reminder that he’s still not an elite SEC QB. That said, he’s been pretty good, albeit, with one of the strongest supporting casts surrounding him. Fromm has a 67% completion rate, averages 9.5 ypa, with an INT every 37 attempts. He has a QB rating of 170.
(5) Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee. JG is easily the most underrated SEC QB right now. He’s not quite elite and he still has a way to go, but given the fact that he has dealt with one of the worst O-line situations in the SEC, his stats are very impressive. JG is averaging 9.03 ypa with a 64% completion rate. His rating is 152.5, which is one of the best in the SEC (even ahead of Mond). While his stats will likely take a hit against Bama this week, for now, he has the highest ypa average at Tennessee in the past 24 years (edging out 2012 Tyler Bray, 2001 Casey Clausen, 2006 Erik Ainge, and even 1996 Peyton Manning). Most impressively is that JG only has 1 INT per 63 pass attempts, which only puts him behind Tua and Joe Burrow in the SEC. JG is one of the best deep passers in the SEC right now and he showed off his skills versus Auburn. Hopefully, there’s more to come, but there’s a case that JG should be even higher when you account for Tennessee’s strength of schedule (9th in the NCAA) and the OL struggles.
The Good
(6) Jarrett Stidham, Auburn. At the beginning of the season, I would've put Stidham in the top 3 SEC QBs. He's slipped a bit this season. In spite of a horrid game at Tennessee, Stidham is still in the top half of the SEC. He has a 61% completion rate and averages 7 ypa. He’s thrown 1 INT for every 53 attempts. These aren’t terrible numbers, but he’s clearly taken a step backwards from last season. At least some of that, however, can likely be attributed to a weaker supporting cast on offense. For that reason, I'm still keeping him at #6, though, based purely on stats this season, you could put him lower.
(7) Joe Burrow, LSU. Burrow has been solid, but not spectacular. He’s been the game manager LSU has needed, but the Tigers have been winning with a strong defense and rushing attack more so than with the passing game. Burrow has a mere 53.3% completion rate and a decent 7.3 ypa average. However, he’s only thrown 1 INT per 98 attempts, which is 2nd only to Tua. He’s also rushed for 242 yards. Burrow is basically the Trent Dilfer of the SEC right now.
(8) Feleipe Franks, Florida. I’m surprised I’m putting Franks this high, but he’s improved significantly under Dan Mullen. He’s averaging 7.7 ypa with a 143 rating. He has 1 INT per 36 attempts. He’s also run for 126 yards.
The Solid
(9) Kyle Shurmur, Vanderbilt. Shurmur has a 59% completion rate and averages 7.3 ypa with 1 INT per 45 attempts, and a rating of 132. Given that Shurmur is in one of the weaker offenses in the SEC and has a more pass-reliant attack, I think we can also say that Shurmur’s numbers should be adjusted upwards when compared to some others.
(10) Drew Lock, Mizzou. At the beginning of the season, I would have told you Drew Lock could be the best QB in the SEC East. Right now, it’s obvious that isn’t true. Perhaps it’s the Dooley effect or maybe it’s just that he stopped improving from last season. He’s averaging 7.3 ypa with a 58% completion rate, but he also has an INT for every 37 attempts. That said, Mizzou has the #4 rated strength of schedule in the country, so it’s possible Lock’s numbers pick up during the late stretch of the season.
The Struggling
(11) Jake Bentley, South Carolina. Bentley’s numbers aren’t bad, but he’s been way too mistake prone. He’s averaging 6.9 ypa with a 130 rating, but he throws an INT every 24 pass attempts.
(12) Nick Fitzgerald, Miss State. The Dan Mullen affect seems to be in reverse here. While Feleipe Franks has improved from last season with Mullen as coach, Fitzgerald has gotten worse. Without Mullen, it’s also become more obvious that Fitzgerald is a Running Back masquerading as a Quarterback. Fitzgerald is averaging a weak 5.8 ypa and has a horrendous 49.6% completion rate in a run-heavy offense. He's about average in the interception department, throwing 1 INT per 41 attempts, but he’s also only throw for 4 TDs, which is the 2nd worst for any starting QB in the SEC. The only reason he’s not last is because he’s rushed for 513 yards in 6 games, just short of 100 yards per game. That running threat is probably enough to put him at #12.
The Bottom of the Pack
(13) Terry Wilson, Kentucky. Kentucky may be 5-1 and the #14 team in the country, but it’s not because of their passing attack. Wilson's completion rate is good at 66.4%, but he only averages 6.2 ypa, which is incredibly low given the high completion rate. In comparison, JG is at 64% and 9.0 ypa, which should tell you immediately that Wilson isn’t much of a deep threat passer. What’s much worse is that Wilson averages an INT per 23 attempts, which is one of the worst ratios in the SEC. He has, however, rushed for 304 yards in 6 games, providing Kentucky with another rushing weapon alongside Benny Snell.
(14) Ty Storey, Arkansas. Arkansas has been the worst SEC team by far this season. Perhaps no surprise that they also have the worst starting QB. Storey has completed 57% of his passes for a 6.9 ypa average. He throws an INT every 28 attempts. He has rushed for 177 yards, however.
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