Ranked 22 we only need 10 spots for a playoff spot?

#77
#77
Yesterday went about as good as it could have gone for our bleak playoff odds. The ACC essentially became a one bid league. The Big 12 is also now a one bid league with the BYU loss. Iowa and Washington losing helped us tremendously as the Big 10 looks like it'll be a 3-4 bid league AT BEST (Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC). When you add the Group of 5 winner to this that means there are 6 spots locked up in the 12 team field. ACC champion. Big 12 champion. Group of 5 champion. And the 3 leading Big 10 teams. Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon.

Of the 6 remaining spots, 4 SEC teams look locked in. Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss. That means there are 2 spots up for grabs. Notre Dame looks like they have one of those spots locked up unless they lose. So that leaves one remaining spot in the 12 team field for another SEC or Big 10 team.

The teams currently ahead of us in the SEC and Big 10 that didn't lose this weekend are Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Southern Cal. Texas has Georgia and A&M remaining which are likely losses. Oklahoma has Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Losing 2 out of 3 is possible. Southern Cal has at Oregon remaining which is a likely loss. And finally Vanderbilt has us.

While still extremely unlikely, a path to the playoffs is possible if we win out and get some help. Being the best 9-3 team with a win over 9-3 Vandy could get us in if there's more Saturdays to end the season like we just saw this week.
 
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#78
#78
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Yesterday went about as good as it could have gone for our bleak playoff odds. The ACC essentially became a one bid league. The Big 12 is also now a one bid league with the BYU loss. Iowa and Washington losing helped us tremendously as the Big 10 looks like it'll be a 3-4 bid league AT BEST (Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC). When you add the Group of 5 winner to this that means there are 6 spots locked up in the 12 team field. ACC champion. Big 12 champion. Group of 5 champion. And the 3 leading Big 10 teams. Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon.

Of the 6 remaining spots, 4 SEC teams look locked in. Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss. That means there are 2 spots up for grabs. Notre Dame looks like they have one of those spots locked up unless they lose. So that leaves one remaining spot in the 12 team field for another SEC or Big 10 team.

The teams currently ahead of us in the SEC and Big 10 that didn't lose this weekend are Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Southern Cal. Texas has Georgia and A&M remaining which are likely losses. Oklahoma has Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Losing 2 out of 3 is possible. Southern Cal has at Oregon remaining which is a likely loss. And finally Vanderbilt has us.

While still extremely unlikely, a path to the playoffs is possible if we win out and get some help. Being the best 9-3 team with a win over 9-3 Vandy could get us in if there's more Saturdays to end the season like we just saw this week.
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Agree about as good of a weekend as possible to keep our very slim odds in play. I'll add to the list of losses needed by others. While I don't agree with the rankings for BIG 12 teams, I think need both UTAH (currently 13 last week well ahead of us) and BYU both need to take another loss for a 3 loss team like us to jump them. 4 weekends of football left (for some) so let's win out and see what happens.
 
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#79
#79
Not Likely but also not completely impossible consider this scenario:

SEC
1. Alabama (12-1) - SEC Champ
2. Texas A&M (12-1) - Runner-up
3. Georgia (11-1)
4. Ole Miss (11-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-3)
6. Tennessee (9-3)
7. Vanderbilt (9-3)
8. Texas (8-4)
9. Mizzou (8-4)

Big Ten
1. Ohio St (13-0) - Champ
2. Indiana (12-1) - Runner-Up
3. Oregon (11-1)
4. USC (9-3)
5. Michigan (9-3)

ACC
1. Georgia Tech (11-2) - Champ
2. Virginia (10-3) - Runner-up
3. Pittsburgh (9-3)
4. Miami (9-3)

Big XII
1. Texas Tech (12-1) - Champ
2. BYU (11-2) - Runner-up
3. Utah (10-2)
4. Cincinnati (9-3)
5. Houston (9-3)
6. Arizona St (9-3)

Others:
1. Tulane (11-2)/UNLV (11-2)/James Madison (12-1) - highest ranked G5 Champ
2. Notre Dame (9-3)


That's 2 spots remaining, while not likely an Oklahoma/BYU/USC/Notre Dame upset would move the Vols very very close into the top 12 if they win out
 
#80
#80
Rickyvol77 said:
Not Likely but also not completely impossible consider this scenario:

SEC
1. Alabama (12-1) - SEC Champ
2. Texas A&M (12-1) - Runner-up
3. Georgia (11-1)
4. Ole Miss (11-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-3)
6. Tennessee (9-3)
7. Vanderbilt (9-3)
8. Texas (8-4)
9. Mizzou (8-4)

Big Ten
1. Ohio St (13-0) - Champ
2. Indiana (12-1) - Runner-Up
3. Oregon (11-1)
4. USC (9-3)
5. Michigan (9-3)

ACC
1. Georgia Tech (11-2) - Champ
2. Virginia (10-3) - Runner-up
3. Pittsburgh (9-3)
4. Miami (9-3)

Big XII
1. Texas Tech (12-1) - Champ
2. BYU (11-2) - Runner-up
3. Utah (10-2)
4. Cincinnati (9-3)
5. Houston (9-3)
6. Arizona St (9-3)

Others:
1. Tulane (11-2)/UNLV (11-2)/James Madison (12-1) - highest ranked G5 Champ
2. Notre Dame (9-3)


That's 2 spots remaining, while not likely an Oklahoma/BYU/USC/Notre Dame upset would move the Vols very very close into the top 12 if they win out
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just for sh*ts and giggles, here's who you need to cheer for this week:

Alabama over Oklahoma
Georgia over Texas
Northwestern over Michigan
Iowa over USC
Pittsburgh over Notre Dame
Duke over Virginia
Boston College over Ga Tech
NC State over Miami
UCF over Texas Tech
Baylor over Utah
TCU over BYU
 
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#85
#85
Orange defense said:
Seriously? We can’t move up 10 spots? If we win out, and a lot of teams lose in front of us? Heck, I’ve seen teams move up 20 spots in just three weeks. It’ll probably never happen, but is it possible??
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How do none of you understand this?

They do not take the top 12 teams. The number 12 team in the country will not be in the playoffs
 
#87
#87
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
This team isn’t done losing
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Be careful brother giving out that healthy dose of reality you will quickly be called a troll by some on this chat. Yes we should beat nm state by 2 maybe 3 scores but after that I expect Florida to be one of the toughest games yet. I watched them play Georgia down to the wire and that wasn’t in the swamp! And then somehow everyone keeps discounting Vandy who has played far better teams than us and scored lots of points. So there you go . My best prediction is that we win one of those games and lose the other which one ? Tennessee this year seems to love losing at home so I say we beat Vandy but lose in the swamp. That’s 8-4 . Not a horrible season. , but definitely not college football playoff contenders. As they say it is what it is folks
 
#89
#89
It’s also possible, but not likely that Ole Miss could lose to Florida and Mississippi State. That would make them 9-3 with losses to Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi State. If we win out we will have beaten both Florida and Mississippi State. They would have a win over one team that beat us (Oklahoma) and we would have wins over two teams that beat them. Also, one of our losses is to Alabama which would be a better loss than Florida or Mississippi State. I would imagine in this scenario the committee would rank us ahead of Ole Miss. Again, unlikely, but possible.
 
#90
#90
Orange defense said:
  • Path Forward: The team must win its remaining regular-season games against New Mexico State, Florida, and Vanderbilt to have a realistic chance at the playoff.
  • Win-Out Scenario: If they win out, ESPN's Playoff Predictor gives them a 90% chance to make the playoff.
90%, huh? Just win out, babyyyy!!! Let’s goooo!!😂😂😂😂😂🥶🤭
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90% chance is a good chance. How is that still that high?

We can win out.

There was potential with this team we could be 8-1 should have beat Georgia and Oklahoma and we could have played Bama better.
 
#91
#91
It seems pretty unlikely unless several other teams lose at least 1 game or more. I think a 2 loss Miami or Louisville team would make it in before a 3 loss TN team with no noteworthy wins, other than Vandy. We also need OU to drop 2 games, as I don't see us jumping a 3 loss OU team when OU beat us on the road.

Just win, and the let cards fall where they may. And if we get this team to 9-3, this will have been Heup's most impressive job yet.
 
#94
#94
Carp said:
It seems pretty unlikely unless several other teams lose at least 1 game or more. I think a 2 loss Miami or Louisville team would make it in before a 3 loss TN team with no noteworthy wins, other than Vandy. We also need OU to drop 2 games, as I don't see us jumping a 3 loss OU team when OU beat us on the road.

Just win, and the let cards fall where they may. And if we get this team to 9-3, this will have been Heup's most impressive job yet.
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I think we would get the nod over a two loss Louisville but not a two loss Miami. Louisville's only notable win would be over Miami but they also have a very bad home loss to a bad Cal team as well as a home loss to Virginia. If we finish with a win over a Vandy team that would be 9-3 and likely still ranked in the top 15-20 to go along with our three quality losses and the strength of schedule difference, I think we get in over UL. Miami has the win over ND and would have a win over a decent Pitt team and USF, who could very well be the G6 rep. They don't have any terrible losses, either. The Oklahoma thing is interesting to me. On the surface, you would assume they would have to lose twice due to their head to head win over us. However, Miami has the head to head over Notre Dame, the same number of losses, and yet is ranked eight spots lower than Notre Dame by the committee so the precedent is there. If Oklahoma gets absolutely boat raced by Bama this weekend and is unimpressive against Mizzou and LSU, I wonder if there is a chance they could jump us if we win in impressive fashion over Florida and Vandy. Particularly with the way we dominated the majority of the OU game but lost it due to multiple egregious mistakes.
 
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#95
#95
Orange defense said:
And what a way for the CFPC to set an example for it this year? Tennessee baby move up 10 spots and get in. 😂😂😂😱🤔
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If any 3 loss team gets in, it would be us. Our 3 losses have all came against highly ranked opponents with no blowouts. I still don’t see it happening though, it would be a miracle.
 
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#96
#96
Love it. But it's pretty much over this year. We have a >1% chance of making it, even if we win out and others ahead lose. Let's just be happy with wiping Michigan or Iowa in a bowl game with Aguilar.
 
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#97
#97
bamawriter said:
There's a really good chance that all at-large teams will be ranked in the Top 10. That's a pretty big stretch for Tennessee at this point.
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It is a stretch but there is a potential path based on the remaining match ups for the teams ahead of us. It all becomes moot if we don't take care of our business, though.
 
#98
#98
This thread is like a cockroach that has been squished absolutely flat on the garage floor, and yet somehow every time you glance over at it, it still seems to be moving…
 
#100
#100
SubVet676 said:
This thread is like a cockroach that has been squished absolutely flat on the garage floor, and yet somehow every time you glance over at it, it still seems to be moving…
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Because most Tenn fans are hanging on to hope for the playoffs, and some see a pathway. If you forget, college game day has us in the hunt, not out. Some Tenn fans done gave up. If you have given up, till the last breath of Tenn football, then you have no faith. 😀🤔
 
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