Projected Power 4 teams in their champ games.

#1
D

Dougie_D

Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 14, 2010
Messages
3,701
Likes
1,400
#1
Here's a breakdown of the best 2 scenario *projected matchups* in conference champ games and their overall record going in.

ACC :
SMU ( 11-1 ) vs. MIAMI (11-1)
- OR -
SMU (11 -1) vs. CLEMSON (10-2). *** preferred matchup w/ a CLEMSON LOSS.

2 ACC teams: SMU (12-1) and MIAMI (11-1) get in.


BIG12 :
BYU (11-1) vs COLORADO (10-2) *** preferred matchup w/ a COLORADO LOSS
- OR. -
AZ ST (10-2) vs COLORADO (10-2)

1 BIG12 team : BYU (12-1)


BIG10 :
ORE (12-0) vs INDIANA (12-0) *** preferred matchup w/ an INDIANA LOSS
- OR. -
ORE (12-0) vs OHIO ST. (11-1)

3 teams get in: OREGON (13-0), INDIANA, (12-1) , PENN ST (11-1)
---
last team in: OHIO ST. (10-2)

SEC:
TEXAS (11-1) vs GEORGIA (10-2) *** preferred matchup w/ a GEORGIA LOSS
- OR -
TEXAS AM (10-2) vs GEORGIA (10-2)

3 teams get in: TEXAS (12-1) , ALABAMA (10-2), TENNESSEE (10-2)
---
last team: OLE MISS (10-2)
 
#3
#3
Are you trying to say SMU and Miami might get in? Mathematically that’s not highly unlikely to happen. One of them will have 2 losses after the conference championship and neither of them are going to have the résumé to make it in over the SEC teams. They will be a 1 bid league. The wildcards are the Big Ten and Notre Dame. What if the unthinkable happens and Ohio State loses to Indiana and Michigan to end the season, and then Notre Dame loses to USC? Rival games are unpredictable. Both would drop right out of the field and that could theoretically get all six of the 10-2 SEC teams in if it shakes out that way. The possibilities are wild.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vol in Buckeye Land
#6
#6
VolPack22 said:
Are you trying to say SMU and Miami might get in? Mathematically that’s not highly unlikely to happen. One of them will have 2 losses after the conference championship and neither of them are going to have the résumé to make it in over the SEC teams. They will be a 1 bid league. The wildcards are the Big Ten and Notre Dame. What if the unthinkable happens and Ohio State loses to Indiana and Michigan to end the season, and then Notre Dame loses to USC? Rival games are unpredictable. Both would drop right out of the field and that could theoretically get all six of the 10-2 SEC teams in if it shakes out that way. The possibilities are wild.
Click to expand...
I’m basing off what my preferred matchup and outcome is.
Right now if each ACC team wins their last 2 games, SMU would be 11-1 and would play Miami at 11-1. One team will be 12-1 automatic and other will be 11-2 runner up. Whoever loses will be out, but Clemson would be another team 10-2 with no championship game if they win out.
I’m trying to figure out ways where we don’t have multiple 10-2 teams who won’t play in champ game. The less teams in same record as us , the better .

There might be 8 teams 10-2 without a championship game. The main problem is that majority of the teams playing in champ games will be undefeated, 1 loss , or 2 loss .
 
#7
#7
VolPack22 said:
Are you trying to say SMU and Miami might get in? Mathematically that’s not highly unlikely to happen. One of them will have 2 losses after the conference championship and neither of them are going to have the résumé to make it in over the SEC teams. They will be a 1 bid league. The wildcards are the Big Ten and Notre Dame. What if the unthinkable happens and Ohio State loses to Indiana and Michigan to end the season, and then Notre Dame loses to USC? Rival games are unpredictable. Both would drop right out of the field and that could theoretically get all six of the 10-2 SEC teams in if it shakes out that way. The possibilities are wild.
Click to expand...
Penn state gets in there
 
#8
#8
Dougie_D said:
I’m basing off what my preferred matchup and outcome is.
Right now if each ACC team wins their last 2 games, SMU would be 11-1 and would play Miami at 11-1. One team will be 12-1 automatic and other will be 11-2 runner up. Whoever loses will be out, but Clemson would be another team 10-2 with no championship game if they win out.
I’m trying to figure out ways where we don’t have multiple 10-2 teams who won’t play in champ game. The less teams in same record as us , the better .

There might be 8 teams 10-2 without a championship game. The main problem is that majority of the teams playing in champ games will be undefeated, 1 loss , or 2 loss .
Click to expand...
If teams have the same record they are going to default to SOS and SOR. We are 18th in SOS and 10th in SOR right now. The only 2-loss teams we have to worry about are the other SEC schools. Everyone else will be behind us in the metrics.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vol in Buckeye Land
#9
#9
Dougie_D said:
Penn state gets in there
Click to expand...
Yeah I know, I didn’t mention Penn State because they have a cakewalk. I’m just saying there is a path for Ohio State and Notre Dame to be left out of everything falls into place. I don’t foresee Indiana beating Ohio State but crazier things have happened.
 
#12
#12
OrangeCola said:
big 10 is getting 4 teams in
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Indiana if they lose badly this weekend at Ohio State. The only 2 teams they've played/beaten with a semblance of a pulse are Washington and Michigan, who have a combined record of 11-10 (and eventually that will be 12-12). Even with just 1 loss, how do you put them in? They won't get an opportunity in the Big 10 Championship Game so they'll end the season with 0 quality wins.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vol in Buckeye Land
#13
#13
wtmvol said:
It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Indiana if they lose badly this weekend at Ohio State. The only 2 teams they've played/beaten with a semblance of a pulse are Washington and Michigan, who have a combined record of 11-10 (and eventually that will be 12-12). Even with just 1 loss, how do you put them in? They won't get an opportunity in the Big 10 Championship Game so they'll end the season with 0 quality wins.
Click to expand...
And their SOS is down to 106th currently. This is their one and only opportunity so if they blow it they will be placed behind all the SEC teams.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vol in Buckeye Land
#14
#14
I'm hung up on the SEC tiebreakers. If we go straight chalk in every remaining game, then Texas is 7-1 and we've got a five-way logjam at 6-2 (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M) to figure out the other team in Atlanta. I *think* Alabama goes.

This pdf details what happens when there's a three or more way tie for second place:

Loading…

storage.googleapis.com

A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams: If no team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, all the tied teams advance to the next step in the tiebreaker procedures.

No teams played all four of the other tied teams. Moving on.

B. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams: If three or more teams are tied for the best record within the “Record versus all common Conference opponents” standings:
a. Those teams revert to the beginning of the three-team tiebreaker procedures for second place
b. The remaining teams are eliminated from contention in the Conference Championship Game

There are no opponents common to all five teams, so all five are 0-0. Moving on again.

C. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams: If all tied teams have the same record against the common opponent(s) with the best Conference record, proceed to the next common Conference opponent(s) based on their order of finish within the Conference and continue the procedures above until all common Conference opponents are exhausted

All five teams are still 0-0 vs the best common opponent because there aren't any common opponents at all. On to D we go!

D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams:
Okay here we've dropped common opponent and switched to just all opponents of each team and looked at win percentage. Here's the win pct of each tied team, again assuming it's straight chalk all the way out.
Alabama: 32-32
Georgia: 30-34
Ole Miss: 24-40
Tennessee: 23-41
Texas A&M: 29-35

So it's Alabama in the fourth tiebreak because they're the only team whose opponents were at .500? I think?
 
#15
#15
ArmchairQB said:
I'm hung up on the SEC tiebreakers. If we go straight chalk in every remaining game, then Texas is 7-1 and we've got a five-way logjam at 6-2 (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M) to figure out the other team in Atlanta. I *think* Alabama goes.

This pdf details what happens when there's a three or more way tie for second place:

Loading…

storage.googleapis.com

A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams: If no team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, all the tied teams advance to the next step in the tiebreaker procedures.

No teams played all four of the other tied teams. Moving on.

B. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams: If three or more teams are tied for the best record within the “Record versus all common Conference opponents” standings:
a. Those teams revert to the beginning of the three-team tiebreaker procedures for second place
b. The remaining teams are eliminated from contention in the Conference Championship Game

There are no opponents common to all five teams, so all five are 0-0. Moving on again.

C. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams: If all tied teams have the same record against the common opponent(s) with the best Conference record, proceed to the next common Conference opponent(s) based on their order of finish within the Conference and continue the procedures above until all common Conference opponents are exhausted

All five teams are still 0-0 vs the best common opponent because there aren't any common opponents at all. On to D we go!

D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams:
Okay here we've dropped common opponent and switched to just all opponents of each team and looked at win percentage. Here's the win pct of each tied team, again assuming it's straight chalk all the way out.
Alabama: 32-32
Georgia: 30-34
Ole Miss: 24-40
Tennessee: 23-41
Texas A&M: 29-35

So it's Alabama in the fourth tiebreak? I think?
Click to expand...
Alabama is pretty much a lock if it’s a tiebreaker scenario. They’ve played more quality SEC teams than anyone.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ArmchairQB
#16
#16
We have pretty much no shot at making the SECCG. Our only shot was finishing 7-1.
 
#17
#17
ArmchairQB said:
I'm hung up on the SEC tiebreakers. If we go straight chalk in every remaining game, then Texas is 7-1 and we've got a five-way logjam at 6-2 (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M) to figure out the other team in Atlanta. I *think* Alabama goes.

This pdf details what happens when there's a three or more way tie for second place:

Loading…

storage.googleapis.com

A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams: If no team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, all the tied teams advance to the next step in the tiebreaker procedures.

No teams played all four of the other tied teams. Moving on.

B. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams: If three or more teams are tied for the best record within the “Record versus all common Conference opponents” standings:
a. Those teams revert to the beginning of the three-team tiebreaker procedures for second place
b. The remaining teams are eliminated from contention in the Conference Championship Game

There are no opponents common to all five teams, so all five are 0-0. Moving on again.

C. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams: If all tied teams have the same record against the common opponent(s) with the best Conference record, proceed to the next common Conference opponent(s) based on their order of finish within the Conference and continue the procedures above until all common Conference opponents are exhausted

All five teams are still 0-0 vs the best common opponent because there aren't any common opponents at all. On to D we go!

D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams:
Okay here we've dropped common opponent and switched to just all opponents of each team and looked at win percentage. Here's the win pct of each tied team, again assuming it's straight chalk all the way out.
Alabama: 32-32
Georgia: 30-34
Ole Miss: 24-40
Tennessee: 23-41
Texas A&M: 29-35

So it's Alabama in the fourth tiebreak because they're the only team whose opponents were at .500? I think?
Click to expand...
You would stop at A. Not all the teams involved in the tiebreaker have to play all the other teams. You would just do winning % in those games. Weirdly, Texas A&M wouldn't have played any of the other 4 teams you listed. I think it would end up being Ole Miss because they're 1-0 (Georgia) against the other 4 teams. Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee would all be 1-1.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ArmchairQB
#18
#18
wtmvol said:
You would stop at A. Not all the teams involved in the tiebreaker have to play all the other teams. You would just do winning % in those games. Weirdly, Texas A&M wouldn't have played any of the other 4 teams you listed. I think it would end up being Ole Miss because they're 1-0 (Georgia) against the other 4 teams. Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee would all be 1-1.
Click to expand...
I thought about that but wasn't sure. If they're not literal about "beat all the other tied teams" then Georgia is actually 1-2 (lost to Alabama and Ole Miss) and Ole Miss would have the best win pct and it's us and 'Bama tied for 3rd.
 
#19
#19
wtmvol said:
You would stop at A. Not all the teams involved in the tiebreaker have to play all the other teams. You would just do winning % in those games. Weirdly, Texas A&M wouldn't have played any of the other 4 teams you listed. I think it would end up being Ole Miss because they're 1-0 (Georgia) against the other 4 teams. Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee would all be 1-1.
Click to expand...
Wrong, it will go to cumulative record in a 5 or 6 team tie. Not enough common opponents between the teams.

www.al.com

Updating SEC championship tiebreakers, College Football Playoff race after Saturday’s games

There’s still a chance for up to six 2-loss SEC teams
www.al.com www.al.com
 
#20
#20
ArmchairQB said:
I thought about that but wasn't sure. If they're not literal about "beat all the other tied teams" then Georgia is actually 1-2 (lost to Alabama and Ole Miss) and Ole Miss would have the best win pct and it's us and 'Bama tied for 3rd.
Click to expand...
Disregard what they are saying. It will go to cumulative record. You were correct in your OP.
 
#21
#21
USC needs to do us a big favor and beat Notre Dame. I also the result of the Texas and aTm game should give us some positive movement. If Texas doesn’t win that game they have 0 quality wins. If they do win, Texas A&M would have 3 losses, including 2 at home.
 
#22
#22
volKano said:
The joke is Penn State getting in with only 1 top 25 win over the powerhouse of Illinois.
Click to expand...
They ducked everyone except Ohio State. Kind of the same deal with Texas this year in the SEC. Bama may kick their Butt's in the SEC championship game.. Not sold on Texas as elite. Penn State has benefitted from a soft schedule..
 
#23
#23
VolPack22 said:
Wrong, it will go to cumulative record in a 5 or 6 team tie. Not enough common opponents between the teams.

www.al.com

Updating SEC championship tiebreakers, College Football Playoff race after Saturday’s games

There’s still a chance for up to six 2-loss SEC teams
www.al.com www.al.com
Click to expand...
Ok - yeah you might be right. I found the verbiage on the SEC page:

2. If there is not a complete round robin among the tied teams:
a. If one team beat all the other tied teams, it is selected for the championship game, and the other remaining teams return to the start of the tiebreaker procedures for second place
b. If one team lost to all the other tied teams, it is eliminated and the other teams return to the start of the applicable tiebreaker procedures, unless there are only two teams remaining, in which case they are both selected for the championship game
c. If no team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, all the tied teams advance to the next tiebreaker procedure
 
#24
#24
Dougie_D said:
Here's a breakdown of the best 2 scenario *projected matchups* in conference champ games and their overall record going in.

ACC :
SMU ( 11-1 ) vs. MIAMI (11-1)
- OR -
SMU (11 -1) vs. CLEMSON (10-2). *** preferred matchup w/ a CLEMSON LOSS.

2 ACC teams: SMU (12-1) and MIAMI (11-1) get in.


BIG12 :
BYU (11-1) vs COLORADO (10-2) *** preferred matchup w/ a COLORADO LOSS
- OR. -
AZ ST (10-2) vs COLORADO (10-2)

1 BIG12 team : BYU (12-1)


BIG10 :
ORE (12-0) vs INDIANA (12-0) *** preferred matchup w/ an INDIANA LOSS
- OR. -
ORE (12-0) vs OHIO ST. (11-1)

3 teams get in: OREGON (13-0), INDIANA, (12-1) , PENN ST (11-1)
---
last team in: OHIO ST. (10-2)

SEC:
TEXAS (11-1) vs GEORGIA (10-2) *** preferred matchup w/ a GEORGIA LOSS
- OR -
TEXAS AM (10-2) vs GEORGIA (10-2)

3 teams get in: TEXAS (12-1) , ALABAMA (10-2), TENNESSEE (10-2)
---
last team: OLE MISS (10-2)
Click to expand...

After this weekend Alabama is still in the tiebreaker drivers seat to play the winner of Texas/A&M game (assuming no other major upsets).
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top