Now I'm confused... if we are supposed to live in a world with a Federal Reserve/central bank, then Powell is doing exactly what he is doing by keeping rates high. But now I see people on the right complaining???
Help me make sense of this...do we want an interventionist central bank or no central bank?
I just need some consistency, folks.
i think the complaint is the fed kept rates too low for too long creating a price bubble in housing prices now combined with high rates has killed the mtg market:
"Mortgage rates remain well above where they were a year ago, and this – following the rapid rise in housing prices over the past couple of years – has created a double whammy for potential homebuyers. Home prices are more expensive and the financing is pricier, resulting in a slowdown in the housing market."
The Federal Reserve is leaving interest rates unchanged, following its Jan. 30-31 meeting, with the fed funds rate staying at 5.25 to 5.5 percent.
www.bankrate.com
lowering rates now will keep inflation going so the fed needs a crisis as an excuse to lower rates.
Why did Federal Reserve kept the interest rate too low for that long (even when the inflation was skyrocketing towards the end) and now increasing so fast? Couldn't they have managed it better? Is Fed the culprit for economic instability?
Aaron Brown
MBA in Finance & Statistics (academic discipline), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business (Graduated 1982)
Most people, including most Fed board members, acknowledge that it was a mistake to delay interest rate increases in 2021 and early 2022. So, yes, it appears the Fed could have managed better and therefore, yes, the Fed deserves some blame for current economic issues.
But hindsight, as they say, is 20/20. At the time, the Fed had some reasons:
- The belief that 2021 inflation was driven mainly by transitory issues like supply chain disruptions and reopening pains from pandemic lockdown. In this view, inflation would go away on its own, without the need for painful medicine. Moreover interest rate increases would not do much good for exogenous inflation.
- A concern that the 2021 economic recovery was fragile and it was worth higher-than-normal risk of inflation to avoid the chance of derailing it.
- A feeling that Americans had been through a very painful episode and avoiding current pain was justified even if it meant more future pain, like not nagging a sick person about unpaid bills.
I think those reasons were likely valid in themselves, but underestimated the strength of true monetary inflation and also of market reaction to a Fed seemingly not concerned enough about inflation—
especially with a free-spending political administration. This is not hindsight, a lot of people—including me—said this in 2021.
Some people allege a political motivation. After Trump was defeated in 2020, it seemed like everyone who didn’t like Trump was working together for a while. Janet Yellen, the former Fed chair, was Secretary of the Treasury, and a wide range of mainstream economists seemed to be on board with lots of spending and low interest rates—economists who would normally be expected to be more cautious. I don’t think it’s a case of the administration pressuring the Fed, but there did seem to be a euphoria among the Washington elite and its academic boosters to chase a painless recovery. This is the sort of irrational exuberance that the Fed usually warns the people about, but in this case the people were trying to warn the Fed and politicians.