President Donald Trump - J.D. Vance Administration

#35,351
#35,351
jmacvols1 said:
you're doubling down on being wrong. Want to go for the trifecta and triple down on being wrong?
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Oh I’m not the one that’s wrong here slick. Like I said you haven’t disappointed I knew exactly who would be the first to start justifying this banana republic level firing. 😂
 
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#35,352
#35,352
jmacvols1 said:
818,000 adjustment is not a problem for you? Being off 90% last 2 months is not a problem?
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Sure it is. I'm just saying there's a difference between shortcomings inherent in the process and politically motivated manipulation. Trump accused her (I thought it was the Secretary, its actually a commissioner) of the latter. And I just have trouble believing anyone would intentionally do that, with all the scrutiny it entails.
 
#35,353
#35,353
The initial numbers are based on surveys of 100,000+ and those numbers are extrapolated out. Revisions occur with further surveys, payroll data from census data, and atate/federal unemployment/payroll tax reports.

It is not intended to be an "exact" number for more to show trends....
 
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#35,354
#35,354
It's important to conpare trends you see with BLS and ADP reports. If they paint the same picture, then yeah, the results/survey is highly accurate. If they paint different pictures, then something is off...

It's the same thing with CPI. I've pointed out several times to compare what large companies are saying with LIFO. Pointed that out before CPI got crazy in 21/22....
 
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#35,355
#35,355
I have no doubt there's some smoothing that you see for political reasons. Both sides do it. Just learn to compare a govt source to a private source and form opinions from that....
 
#35,356
#35,356
I think one thing we all need to remember is that markets don't actually act entirely on reason and logic, but also on human emotion. Both Biden and Trump have caused significant emotional reactions and instability by not charting an actual path towards anything.
 
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#35,357
#35,357
BigOrangeMojo said:
It's important to conpare trends you see with BLS and ADP reports. If they paint the same picture, then yeah, the results/survey is highly accurate. If they paint different pictures, then something is off...

It's the same thing with CPI. I've pointed out several times to compare what large companies are saying with LIFO. Pointed that out before CPI got crazy in 21/22....
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Well I for one am already looking forward to next month’s BLS report that will show 1M jobs created and that trashy ADP report can just suck it if it doesn’t concur with the now obviously correct BLS data 😂
 
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#35,358
#35,358
The July BLS and ADP reports are largely in line with each other. The ADP report is slightly more bullish but negligible once you factor in seasonality...

The May and June BLS revisions put it right in line with the ADP reports from those months. The initial govt job reports was more favorable than the ADP reports for those months.
 
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#35,359
#35,359
BigOrangeMojo said:
The July BLS and ADP reports are largely in line with each other. The ADP report is slightly more bullish but negligible once you factor in seasonality...

The May and June BLS revisions put it right in line with the ADP reports from those months. The initial govt job reports was more favorable than the ADP reports for those months.
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Well clearly the administrator of the ADP report needs to be fired also then. That’s the only logical conclusion one can make 😂
 
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#35,360
#35,360
Bad data is worse than no data at all, so I don't understand why they don't delay the release until they are confident in the information. How is getting a report saying +147K and then a revision taking it to +14K useful for anyone? A business or group reacting to the initial +147K wasted a lot of time and effort.
 
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#35,361
#35,361
lawgator1 said:
Sure it is. I'm just saying there's a difference between shortcomings inherent in the process and politically motivated manipulation. Trump accused her (I thought it was the Secretary, its actually a commissioner) of the latter. And I just have trouble believing anyone would intentionally do that, with all the scrutiny it entails.
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Would you agree that all discrepancies, at least over the last 10 months (just pre-election and first 6 months of Trumps administration), have favored the Democrat‘s rhetoric?
 
#35,362
#35,362
CobbVol said:
Bad data is worse than no data at all, so I don't understand why they don't delay the release until they are confident in the information. How is getting a report saying +147K and then a revision taking it to +14K useful for anyone? A business or group reacting to the initial +147K wasted a lot of time and effort.
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not to mention that important decisions (lake adjusting the interest rate) are made, in part, using this number.
 
#35,364
#35,364
Another big victory for the Trump administration ...

From the article:

A federal appeals court on Friday sided with the Trump administration, lifting a temporary block on a March executive order that prevented government workers from union bargaining.

The three judge panel for the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the plaintiffs argument alleging Trump issued the order on the basis of retaliation.

A 2024 report from the labor union found that one in every two new federal employees joined a union. It also found that almost a third of federal employees are union members in comparison to 6 percent in the private sector.

 
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#35,365
#35,365
Buddy’s Bandit said:
Would you agree that all discrepancies, at least over the last 10 months (just pre-election and first 6 months of Trumps administration), have favored the Democrat‘s rhetoric?
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No I wouldn’t agree at all. In both cases big downward revisions resulted. As mojo said as long as we see concurrence between the BLS and ADP results that adds credibility to both.
 
#35,366
#35,366
NorthDallas40 said:
No I wouldn’t agree at all. In both cases big downward revisions resulted. As mojo said as long as we see concurrence between the BLS and ADP results that adds credibility to both.
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Job numbers were stated higher than the ultimate revision for September and October of 2024 (right before the election). This would have favored the incumbent (Democrats).
 
#35,367
#35,367
Buddy’s Bandit said:
Job numbers were stated higher than the ultimate revision for September and October of 2024 (right before the election). This would have favored the incumbent (Democrats).
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And for May and June this year they were stated higher than the final revisions. You’re implying it was due to bias. That’s on you to prove.
 
#35,368
#35,368
Buddy’s Bandit said:
Job numbers were stated higher than the ultimate revision for September and October of 2024 (right before the election). This would have favored the incumbent (Democrats).
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BLS October 2024 (Released right before election) dropped a super low job number, revised down August and September.

The super low October 2024 number was subsequently revised upward in both months after the election.

The Sept 2024 number was revised down too much in October as it was somewhat back up after the election.

This kinda kills that narrative you are trying to spin...
 
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#35,369
#35,369
NorthDallas40 said:
And for May and June this year they were stated higher than the final revisions. You’re implying it was due to bias. That’s on you to prove.
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Which makes the fed want to hold interest rates where they are. Proven.

Action hurst the stock market and housing / auto manufacturing.
 
#35,373
#35,373
Buddy’s Bandit said:
Which makes the fed want to hold interest rates where they are. Proven.

Action hurst the stock market and housing / auto manufacturing.
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The GDP, OBBBA inflationary fiscal policies, wage growth, uncertainty,and core CPI near 3 all supports no decrease in interest rate.

The jobs number by itself does support some easing but there are a lot of factors that dont support it...
 
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