Prediction for 23 Stats-Offense

#1
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RockVol56

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#1
Because I am bored this evening and its the dead season of college football, here are my predicted stats for the offense for this season. Couple things to consider:
1) Looking at the schedule, I think there is a more than realistic chance of us going 10-2, with 9-3 being the floor. certain games come at opportune times, with "tune up" games before, or the bye being at a good point in the season....With that said, I think we rely on running the ball even more, and letting Big Joe take play action shots deep and on 15yrd crossing routes. Think that will be the bread and butter.
2) I foresee alot of guys getting PT, especially against VA, Austin P, UCONN, and UTSA (though that game is tougher then it looks). Should leave starters more rested for SEC.

QB1 Joe Milton 3250yds, 61% completion rate, 29 TDs, 5 ints, 275yds rushing 5 TDs- Think he will have more turnovers but not enough to sink us.
QB2 Nico Iamalaeva 950yrds, 59% completion rate, 9 TDs, 3 Ints, 100yrds rushing, 1 TD- Think he will get alot of garbage time in the tune up games, and maybe some SEC action
QB3 Gaston 150yrds, 60% completion, 1 TD, 1 Int.
QB4 Shuler 100yds 1 TD 1 Int

RB1 J Wright 1025yds, 5.2ypc, 7 TDs, 120yds Rec, 1 TD- I think he takes over as lead dog, though still expect alot of rotation. Surprisingly, we dont throw to RB alot. Would love some screens!!!!
RB2 J Small 670yds, 4.7 YPC 9 TDs, 100yds Rec, 2 TD- I actually think he will start, but will end up as 3rd by end of the season. Solid, and has had a good career.
RB3 D Sampson 595yds, 5.6 YPC, 5 TD, 75yrds REC, 1 TD- Think he passes Small by UK game on depth chart
RB4 C Seldon 265yds, 5.2 YPC, 4 TD, 175yds REC, 2 TD- Think he gets some return work as well. Will be used alot like Gibbs at Bama last year.
RB5 Bishop/Keith will combine for around 300yrds and 3 TDs in garbage time in tune up games, maybe more. I also believe Castle or Davis at TE may get some carries like Fant did
""" I think 2024 with Wright projected Pro and Small graduating, it will be Sampson, Seldon as the next two lead dogs with some great talent coming behind"""

WR1 B McCoy 71 catches, 800yrds 6 TDs- Think he will be the main guy on those 15yrd crosses and in routes, with slants. Big red zone weapon too. Just dont think he will get many deep shots, but could be wrong! Think they will isolate him on the boundary 1 on 1 with smaller DBs and let him bully people
WR2 R Keyton 40 catches 696yds, 5 TDs- The other outside WR. Think he makes himself a draftable player next season.
Slot S White 60 catches, 1008yds, 8 TDs- He could blow up running deep routes like Hyatt did last season, with Big Joe Arm.
Slot #2 D Thornton 29 catches, 600yrds, 7TDs- I think he plays in the slot rotating with White, and some boundary WR. Gonna be the deep guy I think in rotation.
WR3 C Nimrod 10 catches, 125yds, 1 TD
WR4 K Webb 13 catches, 160yrds, 1 TD
WR5 N Leacock 9 catches, 100yds, 1 TD

TE1 Warren 24 catches, 200yds 2 TD
TE2 Castle 14 catches 145 yds, 2 TD
TE3 Davis 17 catches, 200yds 1 TD

Some of the numbers may not add all up together properly, but its approx :)
WR6 N Spillman 6 catches, 84 yrds
 
#3
#3
Y
RockVol56 said:
Because I am bored this evening and its the dead season of college football, here are my predicted stats for the offense for this season. Couple things to consider:
1) Looking at the schedule, I think there is a more than realistic chance of us going 10-2, with 9-3 being the floor. certain games come at opportune times, with "tune up" games before, or the bye being at a good point in the season....With that said, I think we rely on running the ball even more, and letting Big Joe take play action shots deep and on 15yrd crossing routes. Think that will be the bread and butter.
2) I foresee alot of guys getting PT, especially against VA, Austin P, UCONN, and UTSA (though that game is tougher then it looks). Should leave starters more rested for SEC.

QB1 Joe Milton 3250yds, 61% completion rate, 29 TDs, 5 ints, 275yds rushing 5 TDs- Think he will have more turnovers but not enough to sink us.
QB2 Nico Iamalaeva 950yrds, 59% completion rate, 9 TDs, 3 Ints, 100yrds rushing, 1 TD- Think he will get alot of garbage time in the tune up games, and maybe some SEC action
QB3 Gaston 150yrds, 60% completion, 1 TD, 1 Int.
QB4 Shuler 100yds 1 TD 1 Int

RB1 J Wright 1025yds, 5.2ypc, 7 TDs, 120yds Rec, 1 TD- I think he takes over as lead dog, though still expect alot of rotation. Surprisingly, we dont throw to RB alot. Would love some screens!!!!
RB2 J Small 670yds, 4.7 YPC 9 TDs, 100yds Rec, 2 TD- I actually think he will start, but will end up as 3rd by end of the season. Solid, and has had a good career.
RB3 D Sampson 595yds, 5.6 YPC, 5 TD, 75yrds REC, 1 TD- Think he passes Small by UK game on depth chart
RB4 C Seldon 265yds, 5.2 YPC, 4 TD, 175yds REC, 2 TD- Think he gets some return work as well. Will be used alot like Gibbs at Bama last year.
RB5 Bishop/Keith will combine for around 300yrds and 3 TDs in garbage time in tune up games, maybe more. I also believe Castle or Davis at TE may get some carries like Fant did
""" I think 2024 with Wright projected Pro and Small graduating, it will be Sampson, Seldon as the next two lead dogs with some great talent coming behind"""

WR1 B McCoy 71 catches, 800yrds 6 TDs- Think he will be the main guy on those 15yrd crosses and in routes, with slants. Big red zone weapon too. Just dont think he will get many deep shots, but could be wrong! Think they will isolate him on the boundary 1 on 1 with smaller DBs and let him bully people
WR2 R Keyton 40 catches 696yds, 5 TDs- The other outside WR. Think he makes himself a draftable player next season.
Slot S White 60 catches, 1008yds, 8 TDs- He could blow up running deep routes like Hyatt did last season, with Big Joe Arm.
Slot #2 D Thornton 29 catches, 600yrds, 7TDs- I think he plays in the slot rotating with White, and some boundary WR. Gonna be the deep guy I think in rotation.
WR3 C Nimrod 10 catches, 125yds, 1 TD
WR4 K Webb 13 catches, 160yrds, 1 TD
WR5 N Leacock 9 catches, 100yds, 1 TD

TE1 Warren 24 catches, 200yds 2 TD
TE2 Castle 14 catches 145 yds, 2 TD
TE3 Davis 17 catches, 200yds 1 TD

Some of the numbers may not add all up together properly, but its approx :)
WR6 N Spillman 6 catches, 84 yrds
Click to expand...
It’s either gonna be 10-2 or 7-5 Either Milton figures it out or he bombs and the team limps to a little above .500
 
#7
#7
Milehigh_Vol said:
You do know they have been top 25 for the past few years and went 11-3 last year? They have a solid team.
Click to expand...
No, friend, they have not been.

They were unranked in the final AP poll of the season--last year, and every year before that. They did eke into the #25 spot in the CFP committee final rankings this past season. But then promptly lost their bowl game, so it never translated into any AP love. They were ranked #22 or #23 (CFP, as high as #15 AP) for a few weeks in 2021, but then lost to North Texas and fell promptly out of the CFP Committee's consciousness never to return.

UTSA is a good Group of 5 team, but -- let's keep it in context -- they're a Group of 5 team. Their competition each year is almost entirely fellow G5 teams. Like MTSU, and UAB, and Southwest East Michigan State Tech.

They were 11-3 last year, but had losses to Troy and Houston (as well as to Texas, 41-20). They were 12-2 the year before, but lost to both San Diego State and North Texas. They did beat Illinois, to give credit where due. The year before that, they went 7-5. With a Conference-USA schedule.

These aren't giant killers. They're not Power 5 level competition. They aren't even App State level competition. Vandy will be tougher than them. Probably Virginia, too, unless we let them sneak up on us.

Hats off to UTSA for being decent the last couple of years, but they're not as good as you say. And aren't a real threat as long as our lads are paying attention.

Go Vols!
 
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#8
#8
VFL-82-JP said:
No, friend, they have not been.

They were unranked in the final AP poll of the season--last year, and every year before that. They did eke into the #25 spot in the CFP committee final rankings this past season. But then promptly lost their bowl game, so it never translated into any AP love. The CFP did not rank them the year prior, or the year before that.

UTSA is a good Group of 5 team, but -- let's keep it in context -- they're a Group of 5 team. Their competition each year is almost entirely fellow G5 teams. Like MTSU, and UAB, and Southwest East Michigan State Tech.

They were 11-3 last year, but had losses to Troy and Houston (as well as to Texas, 41-20). They were 12-2 the year before, but lost to both San Diego State and North Texas. They did beat Illinois, to give credit where due. The year before that, they went 7-5. With a Conference-USA schedule.

These aren't giant killers. They're not Power 5 level competition. They aren't even App State level competition. Vandy will be tougher than them. Probably Virginia, too, unless we let them sneak up on us.

Hats off to UTSA for being decent the last couple of years, but they're not as good as you say. And aren't a real threat as long as our lads are paying attention.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
Hey look, 82, don't bring facts into this
 
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#9
#9
midnight-staley-pain.gif
 
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#10
#10
VFL-82-JP said:
No, friend, they have not been.

They were unranked in the final AP poll of the season--last year, and every year before that. They did eke into the #25 spot in the CFP committee final rankings this past season. But then promptly lost their bowl game, so it never translated into any AP love. They were ranked #22 or #23 for a few weeks in 2021, but then lost to North Texas and fell promptly out of the CFP Committee's consciousness never to return.

UTSA is a good Group of 5 team, but -- let's keep it in context -- they're a Group of 5 team. Their competition each year is almost entirely fellow G5 teams. Like MTSU, and UAB, and Southwest East Michigan State Tech.

They were 11-3 last year, but had losses to Troy and Houston (as well as to Texas, 41-20). They were 12-2 the year before, but lost to both San Diego State and North Texas. They did beat Illinois, to give credit where due. The year before that, they went 7-5. With a Conference-USA schedule.

These aren't giant killers. They're not Power 5 level competition. They aren't even App State level competition. Vandy will be tougher than them. Probably Virginia, too, unless we let them sneak up on us.

Hats off to UTSA for being decent the last couple of years, but they're not as good as you say. And aren't a real threat as long as our lads are paying attention.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

Did I say anything about AP polls or finishing in the poll?

I said they have been in the top 25 the past few years... been in is very true.

Nothing false in my statement
 
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#11
#11
Milehigh_Vol said:
You do know they have been top 25 for the past few years and went 11-3 last year? They have a solid team.
Click to expand...

Did you look at last year’s schedule for them? Apparently you didn’t. They lost to every ranked team they played. Squeaked out a W against a 6-6 Army. They aren’t as good as you think.
 
#12
#12
BigOrangeTrain said:
Did you look at last year’s schedule for them? Apparently you didn’t. They lost to every ranked team they played. Squeaked out a W against a 6-6 Army. They aren’t as good as you think.
Click to expand...

Yeah OT loss to Houston, Texas after a tough loss to Alabama and a close loss to Troy... They have quality losses.

I'm not saying they are UGA but they are better than A&M was last year.
 
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#13
#13
Milehigh_Vol said:
Did I say anything about AP polls or finishing in the poll?

I said they have been in the top 25 the past few years... been in is very true.

Nothing false in my statement
Click to expand...
Back away from the nitpicky details of what you said or didn't say. Look at your message. Look at the context of your message.

BOT said, paraphrasing, that we don't need to worry about UTSA, we'll beat them easily.

You corrected him by implying that we DO need to worry about UTSA. And now you're backing off of that with technicalities.

We don't need to worry about UTSA. As long as the lads are focused that week, we beat them easily. More easily than the weakest of our SEC competition.

Go Vols!
 
#14
#14
VFL-82-JP said:
Back away from the nitpicky details of what you said or didn't say. Look at your message. Look at the context of your message.

BOT said, paraphrasing, that we don't need to worry about UTSA, we'll beat them easily.

You corrected him by implying that we DO need to worry about UTSA. And now you're backing off of that with technicalities.

We don't need to worry about UTSA. As long as the lads are focused that week, we beat them easily. More easily than the weakest of our SEC competition.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

If the guys show up, if they dismiss them like this guy did, we may lose.

I'm just saying they are one of the tougher home games we have all year. (True)

I said they was in the top 25 the past few years (True)

I'm not nitpicking you assumed I said something I never said. (True)
 
#15
#15
Milehigh_Vol said:
If the guys show up, if they dismiss them like this guy did, we may lose.

I'm just saying they are one of the tougher home games we have all year. (True)

I said they was in the top 25 the past few years (True)

I'm not nitpicking you assumed I said something I never said. (True)
Click to expand...
Friend, they are one of the EASIER home games we have this year. Here are the home games that are tougher than Texas-San Antonio:

- Virginia
- South Carolina
- A&M
- UGa
- Vandy

And here are the home games that are easier:

- Austin Peay
- U Conn (probably)

UTSA are a G5 team. They should be kept in context as a G5 team. Our lads show up focused, and we beat them by several scores.

Go Vols!
 
#16
#16
VFL-82-JP said:
Friend, they are one of the EASIER home games we have this year. Here are the home games that are tougher than Texas-San Antonio:

- Virginia
- South Carolina
- A&M
- UGa
- Vandy

And here are the home games that are easier:

- Austin Peay
- U Conn (probably)

UTSA are a G5 team. They should be kept in context as a G5 team. Our lads show up focused, and we beat them by several scores.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

UVA a home game?
SCjr sure
T A&m is awful going off of last year.
UGA Yes
Vandy.... laughable

Home game rankings.
UGA
SCjr
A&M or UTSA. They are the same, just one has more wasted talent than the other.
Vandy
U conn
Peay

UVA is not at Neyland and was not a part of my season tickets.. Not a home game in my mind and they would be one above Vandy.

UTSA returns most of its players including a 4k yard passer and a really good RB. More than the others can say.
 
#17
#17
anybody remember all the..."Bravado"...BEFORE the USCjr game last year...??!!
 
#18
#18
VFL-82-JP said:
Friend, they are one of the EASIER home games we have this year. Here are the home games that are tougher than Texas-San Antonio:

- Virginia
- South Carolina
- A&M
- UGa
- Vandy

And here are the home games that are easier:

- Austin Peay
- U Conn (probably)

UTSA are a G5 team. They should be kept in context as a G5 team. Our lads show up focused, and we beat them by several scores.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

I promise you that UTSA will be a tougher game than Virginia.
 
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#19
#19
FBtime said:
I promise you that UTSA will be a tougher game than Virginia.
Click to expand...

well, that's not saying much. Virginia lost to

Pitt by 30

Duke by 21

Illinois by 21

Louisville by 17

They did squeak out a 2 point win over Old Dominoin
 
#20
#20
VFL-82-JP said:
No, friend, they have not been.

They were unranked in the final AP poll of the season--last year, and every year before that. They did eke into the #25 spot in the CFP committee final rankings this past season. But then promptly lost their bowl game, so it never translated into any AP love. They were ranked #22 or #23 (CFP, as high as #15 AP) for a few weeks in 2021, but then lost to North Texas and fell promptly out of the CFP Committee's consciousness never to return.

UTSA is a good Group of 5 team, but -- let's keep it in context -- they're a Group of 5 team. Their competition each year is almost entirely fellow G5 teams. Like MTSU, and UAB, and Southwest East Michigan State Tech.

They were 11-3 last year, but had losses to Troy and Houston (as well as to Texas, 41-20). They were 12-2 the year before, but lost to both San Diego State and North Texas. They did beat Illinois, to give credit where due. The year before that, they went 7-5. With a Conference-USA schedule.

These aren't giant killers. They're not Power 5 level competition. They aren't even App State level competition. Vandy will be tougher than them. Probably Virginia, too, unless we let them sneak up on us.

Hats off to UTSA for being decent the last couple of years, but they're not as good as you say. And aren't a real threat as long as our lads are paying attention.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

100% agree, don't see where all the UTSA love comes from. Nice little team for the league they're in, but an 8-5 Texas team beat them by 3 TDs, and they beat W Ky, UTEP and Army by 3 points each.
 
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#21
#21
MurphyVol said:
100% agree, don't see where all the UTSA love comes from. Nice little team for the league they're in, but an 8-5 Texas team beat them by 3 TDs, and they beat W Ky, UTEP and Army by 3 points each.
Click to expand...

They also barely lost to Houston and Troy.

Texas was a really good team that had the best RB in the country. Remember they almost beat Alabama.

It's not love for say, its a "they are good, don't overlook them..." thing

Edit to say this because it makes me laugh:

They beat MTSU that beat Miami... Quality win... LOL
 
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#23
#23
Milehigh_Vol said:
They also barely lost to Houston and Troy.

Texas was a really good team that had the best RB in the country. Remember they almost beat Alabama.

It's not love for say, its a "they are good, don't overlook them..." thing
Click to expand...

Well, Troy is another team that can occasionally get ranked just based on their schedule. I'm not sure they played anyone that ended the season ranked. You look at them...they beat Army by 1, South Bama by 4, etc....... it mildly annoys me that teams like this end up ranked just because of their conferences/schedules. Are they truly the 19th best team in all of footaball?

I'd say if you gave UTSA or Troy our schedule from last year they probably end up somewhere around 3-5 wins.
 
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#24
#24
MurphyVol said:
Well, Troy is another team that can occasionally get ranked just based on their schedule. I'm not sure they played anyone that ended the season ranked. You look at them...they beat Army by 1, South Bama by 4, etc....... it mildly annoys me that teams like this end up ranked just because of their conferences/schedules. Are they truly the 19th best team in all of footaball?

I'd say if you gave UTSA or Troy our schedule from last year they probably end up somewhere around 3-5 wins.
Click to expand...

Same could be said about Clemson last year.. They probably end up with 3-5 wins.
 
#25
#25
Milehigh_Vol said:
Same could be said about Clemson last year.. They probably end up with 3-5 wins.
Click to expand...

ACC is typically very weak, but they did have 5 teams win 9+ last year. Compare with the Big 12 @ 2 teams, Big 10 @ 3..... but yes, typically Clemson has and easy row to hoe.
 
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