Predicted Wins - Vegas- ESPN

[mitzustu]

Over

 

[VolFreakJosh]

IMO, I do believe we beat UF, GTech, & Georgia. On the other hand, I think we lose to Bama, LSU, and SC again. 8-9 wins is about right with this schedule unless Butch pulls an upset.

 

[wesleydmartin]

Listening to a gambling show yesterday and when the Westgate posted Tennessee at 7.5 wins, many of the sports gambling people here are saying it's almost a sure bet to take the under. Many can't find 8 wins on the schedule.

Obviously injuries to other teams can change things but if what Vegas says is correct, Butch may be shown the door

ouch, thank goodness only a prediction. that would be pretty upsetting though

(could u imagine the dumpster fire here)

 

[VFL-82-JP]

When I look at the schedule, I see eight games we should win, and then four others that are major challenges.

If we hold serve, or if we win as many challenge games as we lose among the should-wins, we'll get to eight.

I think we can and will do that. I'd take the over.

Go Vols!

 

[Sin City Vol]

I'm only seeing 5 guaranteed wins:

Indiana State
UMASS
Kentucky
Southern Miss
Vandy (after last year who the F knows)

Losses:

Florida (on the road)
Georgia (lucky last year with more talent)
Bama
LSU

Toss-Ups:

GT (You never know when dealing with that offense)
South Carolina
Missouri

This may be the most unknown season since 1998, so lets all cross our fingers

 

[jackaro]

I am certainly no expert on gambling but I think Vegas odds are set to get the same number of people to bet on both sides such that the bets cover each other and Vegas makes money off of the "vig".

Everyone seems to be taking this literally as a prediction of wins and losses when it isn't, it is a betting line.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I am certainly no expert on gambling but I think Vegas odds are set to get the same number of people to bet on both sides such that the bets cover each other and Vegas makes money off of the "vig".

Everyone seems to be taking this literally as a prediction of wins and losses when it isn't, it is a betting line.

This comment comes up frequently when we start talking about Vegas lines.

Technically, you're right. Vegas' bookies aren't themselves making a prediction about how many games teams will win.

Instead, they're making a prediction about where the center of mass of all the betting public's predictions will be for each team.

So it's a one-off: a prediction of a set of predictions. A sensing of the public mood about a team's chances, if you will.

Most of us here get that, and are discussing the line and whether we'd bet over or under. So "everyone" may be too strong a term. "Some" would work better. Some are indeed focusing on the prediction itself. Probably a fair number of them, if you held their feet to the fire, already know that when they say "Vegas predicts" it really means "Vegas predicts that the public will predict". And that's okay, too.

At the end of the day, we're all just talking Tennessee football. We don't have to be uber-knowledgeable about how Vegas works to to do that.

Go Vols!

 

[Volsfaninva917]

What games are you talking about? Obviously Vandy and SCAR last year, but what games did we lose in 2013, 2014, and 2015 where we were the better team?

2013 Vandy
2014 Florida
2015 Oklahoma (ill say this one might be a stretch) Florida, Arkansas
2016 Vanderbilt, South Carolina

 

[VFL-82-JP]

2013 Vandy
2014 Florida
2015 Oklahoma (ill say this one might be a stretch) Florida, Arkansas
2016 Vanderbilt, South Carolina

I'd say about half of those are a stretch. Vandy x2 and USCe, yes. Florida and Arkansas are peers, roughly equal. Oklahoma has been the better team until just recently. Say, this past couple of seasons.

So from my perspective, your list would look like:

2013 - Vandy
2016 - Vandy, USCe

That's about it. All those other games are realistic challenges that could reasonably go either way.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

I'd say about half of those are a stretch. Vandy x2 and USCe, yes. Florida and Arkansas are peers, roughly equal. Oklahoma has been the better team until just recently. Say, this past couple of seasons.

So from my perspective, your list would look like:

2013 - Vandy
2016 - Vandy, USCe

That's about it. All those other games are realistic challenges that could reasonably go either way.

2014 and 2015 losses to Florida with the way those games turned out were 100% unacceptable

 

[IknoxvolsI]

LSU should be a win. They have a huge lead in the talent discrepancy but Coach O really isn't much better than the one we've got.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

2014 and 2015 losses to Florida with the way those games turned out were 100% unacceptable

That wasn't the metric, though, was it? The metric was teams "we were better than."

Leaving aside the argument that the better team ON THAT DAY is by definition the one that wins the game, all the measuring sticks for the past three years say that Florida, Georgia, and yes even Arkansas have been peer competitors. We weren't significantly better, they weren't significantly better, and those games could've gone either way.

So let's don't move the goalposts around in this discussion. :good!:

 

[Volsfaninva917]

That wasn't the metric, though, was it? The metric was teams "we were better than."

Leaving aside the argument that the better team ON THAT DAY is by definition the one that wins the game, all the measuring sticks for the past three years say that Florida, Georgia, and yes even Arkansas have been peer competitors. We weren't significantly better, they weren't significantly better, and those games could've gone either way.

So let's don't move the goalposts around in this discussion. :good!:

Tennessee was a better football team than Florida in 2014 and 2015. Tennessee was a much better football team than Arkansas in 2015 in fact Tennessee was a 6 to 7.5 point favorite that night http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/arkansas-tennessee-odds-october-3-2015

 

[08Vol]

Tennessee was a better football team than Florida in 2014 and 2015. Tennessee was a much better football team than Arkansas in 2015 in fact Tennessee was a 6 to 7.5 point favorite that night http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/arkansas-tennessee-odds-october-3-2015

In what way were we a better football team than UF in 2014 and 2015? We just had our first NFL draft picks in like 3 years while UF has 3+ players drafted every year. Coaching is what kept us in those games where we had less talent on the field

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

I'm only seeing 5 guaranteed wins:

Indiana State
UMASS
Kentucky
Southern Miss
Vandy (after last year who the F knows)

Losses:

Florida (on the road)
Georgia (lucky last year with more talent)
Bama
LSU

Toss-Ups:

GT (You never know when dealing with that offense)
South Carolina
Missouri

This may be the most unknown season since 1998, so lets all cross our fingers

You need to switch Mizzou and Kentucky. Kentucky is the 5th toughest team we will play next year and it is on the road. They bring back a lot of starters from a good squad last year with a very good run blocking OL.

I'd put Fl and GA as toss ups and maybe LSU if Orgeron is in true form (Outstanding interim head coach & lousy full time head coach).

 

[VolFreakJosh]

You need to switch Mizzou and Kentucky. Kentucky is the 5th toughest team we will play next year and it is on the road. They bring back a lot of starters from a good squad last year with a very good run blocking OL.

We've fallen so low that we're considering Kentucky to be an tough opponent now? My goodness.

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

I'm sorry but going by the margin of victory on the first game of the season as a barometer for wins is risky business. Just sayin. GBO!!!!!

Must have been interesting barometer in 98 after the Syracuse and Florida games!

 

[Volsfaninva917]

In what way were we a better football team than UF in 2014 and 2015? We just had our first NFL draft picks in like 3 years while UF has 3+ players drafted every year. Coaching is what kept us in those games where we had less talent on the field

Actually, coaching is what lost us those 2 games

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Actually, coaching is what lost us those 2 games

Neither of you, nor me, nor probably anyone else on this site really know.

The melding of the ideas and actions of 100+ people, players and coaches, during a 60-minute football game is so complex, it likely fits the definition of a 'chaotic system' (not that it's chaos, but that predicting future outcomes based on current conditions is all but impossible).

There's just a WHOLE lot going on, and we the fans hear none of the conversations, know none of the play calls, can't compare what each player should've done to what he did do because we don't know what he was supposed to do...and on and on.

Bottom line is, neither of you know whether good coaching kept us in games that we should've lost on talent, or whether talent kept us in games we should've lost because of coaching. Probably a bit of both in every game...no coach and no player is perfect, they're all making mistakes in each game.

Pushing all the blame in one direction or the other just reveals a person who is pursuing an agenda, or one who has an overly simplistic view of how the world works.

 

[stevenrich2003]

Mississippi State wins 11? And no wins for Vandy...

Took me a second but it got it. :good!:

 

[Volsfaninva917]

Neither of you, nor me, nor probably anyone else on this site really know.

The melding of the ideas and actions of 100+ people, players and coaches, during a 60-minute football game is so complex, it likely fits the definition of a 'chaotic system' (not that it's chaos, but that predicting future outcomes based on current conditions is all but impossible).

There's just a WHOLE lot going on, and we the fans hear none of the conversations, know none of the play calls, can't compare what each player should've done to what he did do because we don't know what he was supposed to do...and on and on.

Bottom line is, neither of you know whether good coaching kept us in games that we should've lost on talent, or whether talent kept us in games we should've lost because of coaching. Probably a bit of both in every game...no coach and no player is perfect, they're all making mistakes in each game.

Pushing all the blame in one direction or the other just reveals a person who is pursuing an agenda, or one who has an overly simplistic view of how the world works.

Butch continues to make mistakes, I don't expect anyone to be perfect however I do expect a man making 4 million a year to learn from his mistakes and not pass the blame. And pursuing an agenda? My opinion doesn't hold anywhere close to enough weight to push an agenda in the matters at Tennessee and neither does your's. So do I like Butch Jones? I'm sure he's a great person however he's not a great football coach and his record will show this, he's a career 8 win football coach. I refuse to blindly support a head coach just because he's the coach of the team I love. I refuse to coach worship, period.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Butch continues to make mistakes, I don't expect anyone to be perfect however I do expect a man making 4 million a year to learn from his mistakes and not pass the blame. And pursuing an agenda? My opinion doesn't hold anywhere close to enough weight to push an agenda in the matters at Tennessee and neither does your's. So do I like Butch Jones? I'm sure he's a great person however he's not a great football coach and his record will show this, he's a career 8 win football coach. I refuse to blindly support a head coach just because he's the coach of the team I love. I refuse to coach worship, period.

Glad you got that off your chest. I bet you feel better now.