Think TCU has to lose and then we are in. People can argue about TCU all they want (I don’t think they are very good) but they aren’t putting us in above an undefeated Big 12 champion. Just not happening.
I don’t think they’ll go undefeated.
I think a 1 loss PAC winner gets in also. Believe the committee will jump the pac winner to the 3 seed, JMO. I think the final spot is down to us and TCU.I don’t know that anyone has said an undefeated Big 12 champ TCU would be left out. They wouldn’t be - they’d be in along with us, Georgia, and the OSU/Michigan winner. We would be in over a one-loss Oregon or USC Pac 12 champ based on the strength of our record. And a two-loss LSU, even if they were to win the SECCG, would not get in, just like Penn State in 2016.
If we win out, we’re in. Case closed.
What if TCU wins out and Oregon or USC is a 1 loss pac champ? I think we need 2 of the 3 not to happen.Assuming we win out without a close scare, I believe that in order to get bumped from the playoff, all three of the following would have to happen:
TCU wins out as undefeated B12 champ
Oregon wins out as 1-loss P12 champ
OSU/UM is a one possession game
If just ONE of the three things above doesn't end up happening, I think we're in.
I think a 1 loss PAC winner gets in also. Believe the committee will jump the pac winner to the 3 seed, JMO. I think the final spot is down to us and TCU.