Playoff Selection Thoughts

#1
cbrown

cbrown

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#1
The more I think about moving to the 9-game conference schedule, the more I think teams should be selected using a BCS-type formula. There will frequently be 8-4 SEC teams that are in the top 12-16 teams nationally. As much as we’ve been told SOS will be weighed more heavily moving forward, if left to a room of humans, an 11-1 team that is less deserving (2014 Indiana) will always be more appealing. I think the cleanest way to do it is with a formula that clearly states how much SOS counts - no room for interpretation. In the current setup, Ohio State should win more national titles than anyone else over time because you can pencil them in for the playoffs every year, especially when it goes to 16 teams. It will be much harder for any SEC team to do the same.
 
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#2
#2
It will be interesting to see but I agree that Ohio state and others will benefit from a weaker schedule or the SEC playing a 9th game.


Part of me thinks NCAA should go the NFL route with division winners, etc. making the playoffs.
 
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#3
#3
Don’t forget the ole early losses are not as bad as losses later in year.

ND has figured this out. This year they lost the first two games of season which for some reason was the highest ranked teams they will play. The rest of the year they play no ranked teams and yet they are still ranked.

Talking heads already say that they are a great team in spite of beating anyone and they should be considered for a CFP spot. So now they will March up in the rankings each week as they beat an unranked teams.

If the computer rankings look at any of the human polls like the one the dumb woman writer that moved up a losing team, then it will also be flawed. The polls should really start throwing out each teams 10% highest votes and 10% lowest votes to find better rankings than what we have, at least that would get rid of some bias.
 
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#7
#7
maxorange said:
8-4 SEC teams don't belong in a playoff....regardless of the schedule strength
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Let’s say an SEC team loses a difficult OOC game (like TX @ OSU this year), then goes 6-3 in-conference, they would be more deserving than most 10-2 teams in other conferences. Almost any team that goes 6-3 in an SEC schedule is going to be one of the best 16 teams in the country.
 
#9
#9
maxorange said:
8-4 SEC teams don't belong in a playoff....regardless of the schedule strength
Click to expand...
Historically absolutely but when they start football version of March madness with 16 teams then it becomes more important to get hot at the end of regular season more so than just good enough to make it in.
 
#10
#10
Dadof2Vols said:
Don’t forget the ole early losses are not as bad as losses later in year.

ND has figured this out. This year they lost the first two games of season which for some reason was the highest ranked teams they will play. The rest of the year they play no ranked teams and yet they are still ranked.

Talking heads already say that they are a great team in spite of beating anyone and they should be considered for a CFP spot. So now they will March up in the rankings each week as they beat an unranked teams.

If the computer rankings look at any of the human polls like the one the dumb woman writer that moved up a losing team, then it will also be flawed. The polls should really start throwing out each teams 10% highest votes and 10% lowest votes to find better rankings than what we have, at least that would get rid of some bias.
Click to expand...
Interesting take. You’ve got my vote.
 
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#11
#11
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#12
#12
cbrown said:
Let’s say an SEC team loses a difficult OOC game (like TX @ OSU this year), then goes 6-3 in-conference, they would be more deserving than most 10-2 teams in other conferences. Almost any team that goes 6-3 in an SEC schedule is going to be one of the best 16 teams in the country.
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I would agree with this if that team like TN had their best DB out and their highest rated O-Lineman and some other high end players. If these players were out when they got the losses. I'd hope the committee would take that into consideration and as the players come back the team looks dominant. Despite the early losses but the committee may just stick with 3 losses basically knocks you out.
 
#13
#13
KTrain said:
I would agree with this if that team like TN had their best DB out and their highest rated O-Lineman and some other high end players. If these players were out when they got the losses. I'd hope the committee would take that into consideration and as the players come back the team looks dominant. Despite the early losses but the committee may just stick with 3 losses basically knocks you out.
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Or if a team loses an OOC game on the road like the aforementioned TX@OSU, then loses to say Bama, Georgia, and Oklahoma on the road (which we have in 2027). A team could be one of the five best teams in the country and end up 8-4 with a schedule like that, while a 2024 Indiana-type team could be 11-1 and not be one of the 16 best teams in the country.
 
#14
#14
cbrown said:
The more I think about moving to the 9-game conference schedule, the more I think teams should be selected using a BCS-type formula. There will frequently be 8-4 SEC teams that are in the top 12-16 teams nationally. As much as we’ve been told SOS will be weighed more heavily moving forward, if left to a room of humans, an 11-1 team that is less deserving (2014 Indiana) will always be more appealing. I think the cleanest way to do it is with a formula that clearly states how much SOS counts - no room for interpretation. In the current setup, Ohio State should win more national titles than anyone else over time because you can pencil them in for the playoffs every year, especially when it goes to 16 teams. It will be much harder for any SEC team to do the same.
Click to expand...
With money and an anti SEC selection committee, expect deserving SEC teams to be left out. Did you notice at beginning of this season, all 12 teams from last years playoff were ranked in the top 25? With Tenn 24 and Boise ST. 25. How did they justify Arizona ST., SMU, Clemson, Indiana ranked ahead of Tenn? Plus they added Illinois. ESPN and the selection committee will do whatever they can to make sure no more than 4 SEC teams in.
 
#15
#15
If Ohio State played Mich,Penn St.,Iowa(a joke),Ind.,Oregon,every year,it still woulg not touch SEC's ala,ga.,fla.,lsu,miss tex.,okla.for strength.We played Fla.,Ala.,and Georgia Every damn year for the last 30 years.You could give Osu one to three losses every year playing those teams.Big 10(12) mantra,play noone and get northern sportswriters to listen only to you.
 
#16
#16
For goodness sakes, jut drop all the OOC (directional schools etc) and just play conference schools and other Power 4 schools. I and most of my buddies have quite watching Tenn play the ETSUs, UABs, etc games. They are no use. Let the fans see the Vols play Clemson, FSU, UNC, ND, Kansas, or anybody else in the power 4. If every Power 4 played only equal opponents, everyone’s record might be tarnished with a loss, but everyone’s record is fairly equal. As a fan you gotta love Ala vs FSU or aTm vs ND, and other cross conference games. Then there will be less biased on a team playing 1 or 2 tuff games and 10 cupcakes. Indiana played who was on their schedule. It just happened everyone was weak, but to say the B10 has only 2 good teams, means those kids at a major school aren’t talented. Do you think MSU Thinks they have no talent when Tenn comes calling? Did Vandy not beat both Aub and Bama last year, supposedly ”football” schools. I’ll tell you what successful schools have, and that’s the best coaches.
 
#18
#18
Dadof2Vols said:
Don’t forget the ole early losses are not as bad as losses later in year.

ND has figured this out. This year they lost the first two games of season which for some reason was the highest ranked teams they will play. The rest of the year they play no ranked teams and yet they are still ranked.

Talking heads already say that they are a great team in spite of beating anyone and they should be considered for a CFP spot. So now they will March up in the rankings each week as they beat an unranked teams.

If the computer rankings look at any of the human polls like the one the dumb woman writer that moved up a losing team, then it will also be flawed. The polls should really start throwing out each teams 10% highest votes and 10% lowest votes to find better rankings than what we have, at least that would get rid of some bias.
Click to expand...
I agree, especially about ND. They do play USC, but there again, how good is USC? This might sound crazy, but I think there is a decent chance that Arkansas takes care of the Domers down in Fayetteville tomorrow.

The Hogs aren’t the cupcake that many are making them out to be, they are just wildly inconsistent. If they ever play well for 4 quarters, they will be a very dangerous team, so long as Green stays healthy.

That’s not to say I foresee your Vols having trouble with them, especially in Neyland, but ND going to Fayetteville might not work out so well for Freeman and the Irish. They don’t have a conference championship to save them either.

All that said, I do think Freeman is a very good coach, and Arkansas could fold up and play awful, but for some reason I think they will put it on the Irish tomorrow.
 
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#19
#19
njvols said:
Historically absolutely but when they start football version of March madness with 16 teams then it becomes more important to get hot at the end of regular season more so than just good enough to make it in.
Click to expand...
To a certain extent it matters to just get hot m, but college football is almost always going to come down to the most talented team. Plus as long as there is a weeks long break between the end of the regular season and the playoffs, how much can being “hot” actually help?
 
#21
#21
maxorange said:
8-4 SEC teams don't belong in a playoff....regardless of the schedule strength
Click to expand...
I agree…if you’re 8-4, how many quality wins could you have? If you lost to the top 4 SEC teams you played, then your best wins would be over mid tier SEC teams…even worse, if any of your losses are to lower tier SEC teams then those losses are definitely bad losses.
 
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