OP, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I see what you are doing here, and I tend to agree.
You are trying to get people to see what we "should" be able to do next year, in their own words.
Then, if/when UT doesn't meet those expectations, they won't be able to deny that Dooley is not the man for the job. Correct?
Anyway, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't believe he is the man for the job. I hope he is, and I hope he wins so big that he retires from UT. I just don't see it at this time.
And finally, to answer the OP, we should not lose 5 games in the regular season next year, with that schedule. We "should" beat NC St, Ga St, Akron, Miss St, Missouri, Troy, Vandy, UK, for 8 wins. Surely, surely we can pull 1 upset, in year three under Dooley.
If we only win 7-8 games, that means we are only beating the teams we "should" beat.
I can't really be satisfied until we "should" be beating 9-11 teams on the schedule per year ... in other words until the 90's type of winning returns to UT.
JMHO