Our RPI is solidifying

#27
#27
VolGee4 said:
I would take Michigan State. I think we could match up with them. I have no confidence in us playing against a Syracuse zone, and I doubt they would rematch us with WSU.
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We might not score 8 points against Syracuse.
 
#28
#28
Daloth said:
I like our chances against Wichita St. but I think they are by far the weakest of the #1 seeds right now. I also like our chances of keeping it close against Syracuse IF we are shooting like we are the past two games, if not they'll beat us worse than Florida did.
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As i said above, we'd be lucky to score 8 points against Syracuse.

Christmas, Grant, Kita, and company would literally cram a ball down Maymon's throat. He misses a ton of layups as/is. My guess is he'd be so paranoid he'll wind up shooting one on top of the backboard.
 
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#29
#29
This thread has solid, verifiable, and positive facts, constructive points, people that truly want the Vols to succeed, a cogent discussion of the NCAAs without constant (or in this case any) naysaying, and only one post about CCM losing/keeping his job, which I actually think was in jest. I love it here!!!! I'm staying on this thread until March.

:dance2:
 
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#30
#30
We still need to win a lot of games to make the tournament happen. Were in the tournament now need to keep ourselves there by winning games.
 
#31
#31
PagingDrVol said:
Just ran some simulations over the lunch hour and our RPI is "hardening" in the low 40s. About 2/3 of the data for the season are in the can, and there are increasingly few games remaining that would move it meaningfully one way or the other. A couple details I found interesting:

The Mizzou series looks to mean less than we originally thought it would. A road win for UT in that series would boost us far more than a home loss would hurt us.

We need LSU and Miss to win as many games in conference as possible without passing us in number of wins.

At 95% confidence, there is only a small chance (~ 7%) we are not going to be an 8-11 seed. About 50% likely to be an 8/9 playing a 1 on Sat/Sun.

Wins at Auburn or MSU help us more than any home loss (including Bama) hurt us.

More later when I have time.
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1) those odds seem a little high.

2) how do you directly equate RPI to seeding? Are you just making an S-Curve based on RPI?
 
#32
#32
bleedingTNorange said:
For those interested here's the expected RPIs for each end of season record via rpiforecast.com:

Current record: 13-7

23-7: 19.8
22-8: 25.8
21-9: 32.5
20-10: 40.1
19-11: 48.6
18-12: 58.4
17-13: 69.0
16-14: 80.2
15-15: 91.7
14-16: 113.0
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KenPom has us at 22 wins. Even at 21 we're looking at at a 9 seed. I think OP's odds are a little skewed just based on an RPI-based S-curve. I think it would look a little more like this:
 

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#33
#33
RPI does not perfectly correlate with seed based on past tournaments' data. So, I am not comfortable with a pure S curve based on it alone. I use 5 more (less weighted) factors that have been shown in prior analyses to explain additional variance in seed above and beyond RPI. One of them is Top25 wins - and VA is helping that cause to an unduly degree right now.

That said, I just posted the RPI sims bc that's what folks like to focus on/chat about. I disagree with Ken POMs approach re inclusion of one of his factors, hence my slight skew to the right and his to the left. Guess we will find out!
 
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#34
#34
bleedingTNorange said:
For those interested here's the expected RPIs for each end of season record via rpiforecast.com:

Current record: 13-7

23-7: 19.8
22-8: 25.8
21-9: 32.5
20-10: 40.1
19-11: 48.6
18-12: 58.4
17-13: 69.0
16-14: 80.2
15-15: 91.7
14-16: 113.0
Click to expand...

The deceptive thing about this table is that it seems to suggest that each of these outcomes is equally likely to occur. In reality, 19 and 20 occupy nearly 2/3 of the distributed probabilities based on performance to date (using my model and another I trust very much).
 
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#35
#35
Recoil said:
As i said above, we'd be lucky to score 8 points against Syracuse.

Christmas, Grant, Kita, and company would literally cram a ball down Maymon's throat. He misses a ton of layups as/is. My guess is he'd be so paranoid he'll wind up shooting one on top of the backboard.
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And as I said, if we're shooting like we have the past two games from the three point line, we'll keep the game close. If not it'd be the worst loss of the year.
 
#38
#38
PagingDrVol said:
RPI does not perfectly correlate with seed based on past tournaments' data. So, I am not comfortable with a pure S curve based on it alone. I use 5 more (less weighted) factors that have been shown in prior analyses to explain additional variance in seed above and beyond RPI. One of them is Top25 wins - and VA is helping that cause to an unduly degree right now.

That said, I just posted the RPI sims bc that's what folks like to focus on/chat about. I disagree with Ken POMs approach re inclusion of one of his factors, hence my slight skew to the right and his to the left. Guess we will find out!
Click to expand...

Can you post your actual #s?
 
#39
#39
golfballs said:
KenPom has us at 22 wins. Even at 21 we're looking at at a 9 seed. I think OP's odds are a little skewed just based on an RPI-based S-curve. I think it would look a little more like this:
Click to expand...


So, based on your data, we still have a shot at a 2 seed.
 
#40
#40
johnnybravo said:
So, based on your data, we still have a shot at a 2 seed.
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Without looking at any numbers, I'd guess that if we ran the table, won the SEC tournament, beating Florida and Kentucky doing so, yeah a 2 seed is possible. Do I think it'll happen? No, of course not. But a possibility.
 
#41
#41
if you look at last season's seeding, they went almost exclusively by the AP ratings.
We're currently sitting at #36. right about where Witchy St was last season when they were seeded at a 9.
The key to getting a better than 8 or 9 seed may be beating Florida and getting back to our preseason AP of 26 or better yet ranked top 25.
Win out boys.
 
#42
#42
johnnybravo said:
So, based on your data, we still have a shot at a 2 seed.
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whobethis16 said:
Without looking at any numbers, I'd guess that if we ran the table, won the SEC tournament, beating Florida and Kentucky doing so, yeah a 2 seed is possible. Do I think it'll happen? No, of course not. But a possibility.
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If things unfolded like that, we'd have a 28-7 record, SEC Title and with other games breaking the right way, our resume could be right in contention for a 2 seed. Florida was 26-7 last year and lost to Ole Miss in the SECT, and they got a 3 seed.

So yeah, 0.3% chance is tiny.
 
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#43
#43
calban said:
if you look at last season's seeding, they went almost exclusively by the AP ratings.
We're currently sitting at #36. right about where Witchy St was last season when they were seeded at a 9.
The key to getting a better than 8 or 9 seed may be beating Florida and getting back to our preseason AP of 26 or better yet ranked top 25.
Win out boys.
Click to expand...

Hate to look ahead, but the Florida game could be HUGE for us
 
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