Our RPI is solidifying

[PagingDrVol]

Just ran some simulations over the lunch hour and our RPI is "hardening" in the low 40s. About 2/3 of the data for the season are in the can, and there are increasingly few games remaining that would move it meaningfully one way or the other. A couple details I found interesting:

The Mizzou series looks to mean less than we originally thought it would. A road win for UT in that series would boost us far more than a home loss would hurt us.

We need LSU and Miss to win as many games in conference as possible without passing us in number of wins.

At 95% confidence, there is only a small chance (~ 7%) we are not going to be an 8-11 seed. About 50% likely to be an 8/9 playing a 1 on Sat/Sun.

Wins at Auburn or MSU help us more than any home loss (including Bama) hurt us.

More later when I have time.

 

[cbbowlingmd]

Damn. Guess that means Cuonzo will be here next year.

 

[Boca Vol]

Damn. Guess that means Cuonzo will be here next year.

Unless he loses the next two, then he's out....unless...

Getting wound up about the RPI in Jan/Feb is like stressing out because your favorite NASCAR driver isn't in the top 10 after 3 laps of the Daytona 500. There's a lot that can happen between now and when it actually matters.

I get it though. It gives us something to debate.

 

[DocVOLiday]

Unless he loses the next two, then he's out....unless...

Getting wound up about the RPI in Jan/Feb is like stressing out because your favorite NASCAR driver isn't in the top 10 after 3 laps of the Daytona 500. There's a lot that can happen between now and when it actually matters.

I get it though. It gives us something to debate.

Its just we're a lot ahead now than we have been in the last few years at this same point

 

[Recoil]

Even if we do get in the Dance, could you imagine us lining up against any of the potential #1s in the field?

If we are 8-9 seed, that's our fate...

Arizona- Yikes
Syracuse- Double Yikes
Mich State- Bad match up
Wichita State- 2nd chance???
Kansas- Athletically superior...by miles

 

[ranradVOL]

Even if we do get in the Dance, could you imagine us lining up against any of the potential #1s in the field?

If we are 8-9 seed, that's our fate...

Arizona- Yikes
Syracuse- Double Yikes
Mich State- Bad match up
Wichita State- 2nd chance???
Kansas- Athletically superior...by miles

We can beat anybody if we come ready to play. Virginia is a good team and UT made them look like a JC team.

 

[TNVolunteerGrad]

I just want us to make the tourney, regardless of who we play

 

[Thrasher865]

We can beat anybody if we come ready to play. Virginia is a good team and UT made them look like a JC team.

I've been conditioned to believe that we won't come ready to play.

 

[ranradVOL]

I've been conditioned to believe that we won't come ready to play.

We come ready to play every game this season minus 6 quarters.

UTEP (game), A&M (2nd half), NC State (1st half)

 

[CAVol]

We come ready to play every game this season minus 6 quarters.

UTEP (game), A&M (2nd half), NC State (1st half)

Florida?

 

[KoachKletus]

Florida?

He said game, that was practice.

 

[Lefteye]

He said game, that was practice.

Yeah, JV vs. Varsity that day.

 

[Recoil]

We can beat anybody if we come ready to play. Virginia is a good team and UT made them look like a JC team.

Uh...

 

[ranradVOL]

Florida?

It was hard to tell if we came to play or not. It was close the first half, then we just got outclassed the 2nd. They're a damn good team.

 

[ranradVOL]

Uh...

Why wouldn't I be serious. We annihilated a top 25 squad.

We also gave the shockers all they wanted.

Anything else, Eddie?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Beating Florida would change that from the 40s to 20s, winning at Missouri would do similar. Obviously all the teams we've played winning will only help as well, our SOS is looking really good.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

For those interested here's the expected RPIs for each end of season record via rpiforecast.com:

Current record: 13-7

23-7: 19.8
22-8: 25.8
21-9: 32.5
20-10: 40.1
19-11: 48.6
18-12: 58.4
17-13: 69.0
16-14: 80.2
15-15: 91.7
14-16: 113.0

 

[Recoil]

Why wouldn't I be serious. We annihilated a top 25 squad.

We also gave the shockers all they wanted.

Anything else, Eddie?

Yeah, where can I hook up? Clearly, the s#iTTer is full.

 

[ranradVOL]

Yeah, where can I hook up? Clearly, the s#iTTer is full.

Lol.

 

[Daloth]

I like our chances against Wichita St. but I think they are by far the weakest of the #1 seeds right now. I also like our chances of keeping it close against Syracuse IF we are shooting like we are the past two games, if not they'll beat us worse than Florida did.

 

[volboy81]

For those interested here's the expected RPIs for each end of season record via rpiforecast.com:

Current record: 13-7

23-7: 19.8
22-8: 25.8
21-9: 32.5
20-10: 40.1
19-11: 48.6
18-12: 58.4
17-13: 69.0
16-14: 80.2
15-15: 91.7
14-16: 113.0

We are 14-7

 

[VolGee4]

Even if we do get in the Dance, could you imagine us lining up against any of the potential #1s in the field?

If we are 8-9 seed, that's our fate...

Arizona- Yikes
Syracuse- Double Yikes
Mich State- Bad match up
Wichita State- 2nd chance???
Kansas- Athletically superior...by miles

I would take Michigan State. I think we could match up with them. I have no confidence in us playing against a Syracuse zone, and I doubt they would rematch us with WSU.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

We are 14-7

Tusculum game doesn't count towards RPI :hi:

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I would take Michigan State. I think we could match up with them. I have no confidence in us playing against a Syracuse zone, and I doubt they would rematch us with WSU.

6/7 seed is my "realistic" wish right now.

 

[Majorvol23]

just win baby