Our next four opponents

#51
#51
daj2576 said:
If you evaluate the next four games based solely off of a four year trailing average of talent on the roster, you would find that there are only 2 teams of those 4 that we actually have more talent than: Mississippi State and SCAR. MSU averages a recruiting class of 33rd using this analysis and SCAR averages 16 (UT 12.25ish). For further reference, BAMA averages 2nd and UGA 10th. Also understand that UT's average number has not been adjusted down due to the talent attrition from the 2009 class, but even if it is as low as 98th, we still average more talent than MSU.

Spurrier has shown a history of over-performing with his talent. That could more than make up for the apparent talent gap.

When you look at the numbers objectively, one can actually evaluate Dooley's performance based off of talent v. talent. If Dooley coaches just to his talent level, then UT goes 1-3 in that stretch. If Dooley can coach above the level of his talent and outcoach spurrier we go 2-2. Objectively, we shouldn't beat UGA nor Bama. If we lose to everyone we should plus MSU, I will start skewing towards the "Dooley can't coach this talent" crowd.

by this same analysis, we should not have won against UF (they average 5th best recruiting), and UF should go 7-1 in the sec (+/- 1 game). Time will tell.
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I'd say the talent equation is a wash with USCe... Its just that they are strong where we are weak and vice versa...

As far as coaching goes... Somebody on this team (or several somebodies...) are going to have to take it out of the coaches hands as far as play in the field is concerned. Leadership by example is as contagious as having the team play poorly and "give up" or "quit" or whatever term one may wish to use.... I'm hoping we can have some LBE and win two of the next four games. Anything better is just asking too much right now...
 
#52
#52
bluetickhound16 said:
4-0 would be cause for a celebration, the likes if which may have never before been seen around here. I'd LOVE ti see it gappen but judging from recent (last two seasons) performance it would truly be a miracle....
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I'm just saying stranger things have happened.
 
#54
#54
daj2576 said:
Yeah...and when tied at halftime, he always loses.

And we haven't won in the Georgia Dome since 1998, so there is that to consider too.

And we haven't beaten an ACC team since the early 2000's, so there is always that to consider.
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Please, put the doolaid down..he has had 3 years to prove himself and has only shown that he can beat teams the university Pays to come play us..and incase you forgot, this is the SEC..wins against the almost competitive conference are expected.
 
#56
#56
Blood Runs Orange said:
Absolutely, it was an outstanding moral victory. Haven't you heard everyone on here proclaiming we were just a couple plays away from a win?
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I just find it silly that people judge a game, either way, before the end. It is just as dumb to say that we beat UF for 3 quarters, or that we were tied with Akron for 2. All that matters is the final score on the board.

These same people who are knocking UT for our performance yesterday against an inferior opponent, were likely the same people who saw UF against BGSU and thought that UF was way down.

Those sort of games are not usually good predictors. Think of Memphis, Wyoming, Appalachian State. Underdogs have nothing to lose and everything to gain...and it is a lose/lose for the players from the "bigger/better" team.
 
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#57
#57
utqt said:
Please, put the doolaid down..he has had 3 years to prove himself and has only shown that he can beat teams the university Pays to come play us..and incase you forgot, this is the SEC..wins against the almost competitive conference are expected.
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You're right. Fire Dooley, that is the only objective solution. While you are doing that, please explain to me why we are missing so many seniors on this roster. Please explain to me why last year we were missing so many juniors and seniors.

Talent is king, right now our talent level is at a level that we should expect to go 4-4 or 5-3 in the SEC, but that does not include wins against UGA/Bama/UF and is iffy against SCAR.

Technically he has only had 2 years and 4 games. What was Majors record here in his first four years? Hint: 4–7, 5–5–1, 7–5, and 5–6. Major's had proven he could win a national championship AND didn't have the limitations on recruiting that we do now.
 
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#62
#62
daj2576 said:
I just find it silly that people judge a game, either way, before the end. It is just as dumb to say that we beat UF for 3 quarters, or that we were tied with Akron for 2. All that matters is the final score on the board.

These same people who are knocking UT for our performance yesterday against an inferior opponent, were likely the same people who saw UF against BGSU and thought that UF was way down.

Those sort of games are not usually good predictors. Think of Memphis, Wyoming, Appalachian State. Underdogs have nothing to lose and everything to gain...and it is a lose/lose for the players from the "bigger/better" team.
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I agree that the final score is what matters most. But, I disagree that ALL that matters is the final score. If you watched the play of both our O-line and D-line in the game yesterday, you would realize that its going to be a long SEC season for us, despite the fact that we ended up winning by 20 or whatever.
 
#64
#64
I'm going to go with the simple odds on these games: Vols will be 0-4.

The harder predictions are the Vandy and UK games, imo. A lot will depend on team morale (low if we lose all 4 as CDD can't motivate the team) and injuries during the 4 game stretch could play a role, especially is someone like AJ goes down.

I said this last year, but everyone said Vandy and UK were cupcakes that we'd easily beat. This season Vandy is better; UK still sux, but they sucked last year too and we still lost to them.
 
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#66
#66
utmba93 said:
I'm going to go with the simple odds on these games: Vols will be 0-4.

The harder predictions are the Vandy and UK games, imo. A lot will depend on team morale (low if we lose all 4 as CDD can't motivate the team) and injuries during the 4 game stretch.

I said this last year, but everyone said Vandy and UK were cupcakes that we'd easily beat. This season Vandy is better; UK still sux, but that sucked last year too and we still lost to them.
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I don't see 0fer october.... One win certainly maybe two. I think USCe and MSU are beatable. Georgia could be a win if everything (and I mean EVERY THING!!!) goes our way.... This team has shown a tendency to fold at any adversity.... Hopefully last might's takeaway is that we can finally get past rough patches without "quitting" or whatever you want to call it...
 
#67
#67
If our D continues their level of play, we lose all these games by 20+ points.
 
#68
#68
bluetickhound16 said:
I don't see 0fer october.... One win certainly maybe two. I think USCe and MSU are beatable. Georgia could be a win if everything (and I mean EVERY THING!!!) goes our way.... This team has shown a tendency to fold at any adversity.... Hopefully last might's takeaway is that we can finally get past rough patches without "quitting" or whatever you want to call it...
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Last night, we played only one quarter, it just happened to be the last.

You'll be able to bet against my prediction every week... and get points from whatever Vegas agency you prefer.
 
#69
#69
utmba93 said:
Last night, we played only one quarter, it just happened to be the last.

You'll be able to bet against my prediction every week... and get points from whatever Vegas agency you prefer.
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And only a little over half of that quarter, at that.... Fortunately for me, i'm not a gambling man....
 
#70
#70
1-3. We beat MSU. But that does nothing for me. Has to beat one of the Big 3.
 
#71
#71
I expect 0-4.

I think there is a chance for 1-3.

It would take a big effort by all to get 2-2.

Jesus himself would have to help to get 3-1.

His Daddy couldn't even get us to 4-0.

Just a guess..
 
#72
#72
BearCat204 said:
You struggle with reality
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Sometimes.

But perhaps you missed the point. 3-1 is very unlikely, so is 0-4. The most likely outcome is 1-3.

EDIT: maybe "most-likely" is not the correct verbiage. With our talent, 1-3 should be the expected outcome.
 
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#73
#73
I'm going 0-4. If MSU was at home id say we might win that game but IMO, bama, UGA and uscjr are all loses for sure. MSU would be a toss up, but with it being on the road I give them the edge.
 
#74
#74
Blood Runs Orange said:
I agree that the final score is what matters most. But, I disagree that ALL that matters is the final score. If you watched the play of both our O-line and D-line in the game yesterday, you would realize that its going to be a long SEC season for us, despite the fact that we ended up winning by 20 or whatever.
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I am trying to avoid the logical fallacy of using one out of conference game as an indicator of the remainder of the season.

As I have said, often, our TALENT indicates we should beat MSU, Mizzou, KY, Vandy and possibly SCAR. The rest of the games should be losses. It wouldn't matter if Neyland was reincarnated, our talent differential is too big against teams like UF and Bama, right now. We are closer to UGA than some think, but that doesn't mean the score will appear that way Saturday night.

This is how you evaluate coaching, you determine what games SHOULD be won by rational analysis, then evaluate the coach on what he wins. Instead, we try to prove a coach is bad, by evaluating games that were wins (and should have been) or or losses (and should have been). It makes no sense.
 
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#75
#75
utmba93 said:
I'm going to go with the simple odds on these games: Vols will be 0-4.

The harder predictions are the Vandy and UK games, imo. A lot will depend on team morale (low if we lose all 4 as CDD can't motivate the team) and injuries during the 4 game stretch could play a role, especially is someone like AJ goes down.

I said this last year, but everyone said Vandy and UK were cupcakes that we'd easily beat. This season Vandy is better; UK still sux, but they sucked last year too and we still lost to them.
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Vandy is better? They're 1-3 and were embarrassed last night. The loss of 15+ seniors from last year is really showing up for them. Franklin is proving to be all hat and no cattle, hopefully the rest of the country finally sees him for what he is.
 
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