OU and Texas on their way to the SEC?

#251
#251
MSCE09 said:
I see those six will likely be in even more in need of getting out. Without money from Texas they are mid majors. The faster they come to terms with it the faster they can find a decent landing place. The ones that want to be the victim and hold out are going to be left out in the cold. It’s in all of the eights interest in getting out now. Which is why Texas and Oklahoma phrased it how they did. They aren’t leaving just choosing not to re-up in 25. That is in and of itself enough instability to force the whole house of cards to fall but keeps their hands clean.
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Why the NEED? They either are options for other conferences or they’re not. They’re not bound by the accelerated timeline OU and Texas set.
 
#252
#252
butchna said:
Contingent on a lot of “if”s. Most likely is Texas and OU buy their way out, the other schools bide their time and form sensible exit strategies whilst sharing the financial boon.
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I'm not sure about that. I mean, nothing would surprise me. But if you're Kansas, and you get an invite from the Big 10, do you play chicken with OU and Texas, hoping to get a one-time influx $20 million (assuming the high end estimate for OU and Texas's exit fees is correct) or do you split immediately so you can start making $50 million a year? Same goes for Tech and/or TCU to the Pac 12. They wouldn't be making as much per year as Kansas, but they'd be doing better than they currently have it in the Big XII.

And as a side note, I keep seeing Iowa St to the Big 10, but for the life of me I can't figure out why the Big 10 would have any interest in them. I think the Cyclones are destined for the AAC along with Baylor and WVU.
 
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#253
#253
bamawriter said:
I'm not sure about that. I mean, nothing would surprise me. But if you're Kansas, and you get an invite from the Big 10, do you play chicken with OU and Texas, hoping to get a one-time influx $20 million (assuming the high end estimate for OU and Texas's exit fees is correct) or do you split immediately so you can start making $50 million a year? Same goes for Tech and/or TCU to the Pac 12. They wouldn't be making as much per year as Kansas, but they'd be doing better than they currently have it in the Big XII.

And as a side note, I keep seeing Iowa St to the Big 10, but for the life of me I can't figure out why the Big 10 would have any interest in them. I think the Cyclones are destined for the AAC along with Baylor and WVU.
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Kansas is going to be sought after for basketball. The PAC-12 or Big 10 will never not say yes. Iowa State is a natural rival to Iowa and it makes too much sense with little drawback to honor that. Big 10 isn’t going backwards and they already have a bigger payout than the SEC, so after the music stops the media payout will increase. Kansas State Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor are your AAC candidates and in no hurry to get there. West Virginia is destined for the ACC. I don’t think any bail in a year…especially since it would spare Texas and OU cash buyouts.
 
#254
#254
butchna said:
Kansas is going to be sought after for basketball. The PAC-12 or Big 10 will never not say yes.
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Fully agreed. It wouldn't surprise me if all 4 conference talk to Kansas. I think the Big 10 makes the most sense, but they really could wind up anywhere.

Iowa State is a natural rival to Iowa and it makes too much sense with little drawback to honor that. Big 10 isn’t going backwards and they already have a bigger payout than the SEC, so after the music stops the media payout will increase.
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I disagree. There's no math in which adding Iowa State to the same conference as Iowa would make Disney or Fox fork over the added funds to justify splitting the pie another way. That they are Iowa's natural rival is meaningless. If they're annual meeting were drawing significant ratings I could at least listen to the argument. But I went back over the past few years (excluding 2020, obviously) and that game didn't break the Top 50 in any year.

Kansas State Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor are your AAC candidates and in no hurry to get there. West Virginia is destined for the ACC. I don’t think any bail in a year…especially since it would spare Texas and OU cash buyouts.
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I'm not sold on WVU to the ACC. The nearest media market worth anything is Pittsburgh, and the ACC already has that covered. The ACC made no attempt to get them before they joined the Big XII. I could see TCU in the ACC before WVU.
 
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#255
#255
bamawriter said:
Fully agreed. It wouldn't surprise me if all 4 conference talk to Kansas. I think the Big 10 makes the most sense, but they really could wind up anywhere.



I disagree. There's no math in which adding Iowa State to the same conference as Iowa would make Disney or Fox fork over the added funds to justify splitting the pie another way. That they are Iowa's natural rival is meaningless. If they're annual meeting were drawing significant ratings I could at least listen to the argument. But I went back over the past few years (excluding 2020, obviously) and that game didn't break the Top 50 in any year.



I'm not sold on WVU to the ACC. The nearest media market worth anything is Pittsburgh, and the ACC already has that covered. The ACC made no attempt to get them before they joined the Big XII. I could see TCU in the ACC before WVU.
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So 2/3 we disagree…livable.
 
#256
#256
bamawriter said:
And as a side note, I keep seeing Iowa St to the Big 10, but for the life of me I can't figure out why the Big 10 would have any interest in them. I think the Cyclones are destined for the AAC along with Baylor and WVU.
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Emergent football program (highly uncertain how long that can continue, but they are good for the moment), rivalry with conference member Iowa that would get bigger if they stayed good, a basketball program that was consistently good as recently as 3-4 years ago but is unbelievably bad at the moment.

Biggest knock against their membership is that they wouldn't bring them a new TV market. TV and getting access to new TV markets seems to be a big driver behind realignment, to the point where you can have a school that brings very little to the table besides a new TV market and that is enough to get them in (Mizzou).
 
#257
#257
05_never_again said:
Emergent football program (highly uncertain how long that can continue, but they are good for the moment), rivalry with conference member Iowa that would get bigger if they stayed good, a basketball program that was consistently good as recently as 3-4 years ago but is unbelievably bad at the moment.

Biggest knock against their membership is that they wouldn't bring them a new TV market. TV and getting access to new TV markets seems to be a big driver behind realignment, to the point where you can have a school that brings very little to the table besides a new TV market and that is enough to get them in (Mizzou).
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Mizzou joining the SEC was enough to convince Disney and CBS to fork out more money per member.

I can't imagine that Iowa St would make Disney and Fox fork over a combined 50 million dollars a year in order to avoid reducing the current members' annual cuts. If the Cyclones were worth anything near that much then the Big XII deal wouldn't be so crappy.
 
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#258
#258
bamawriter said:
Mizzou joining the SEC was enough to convince Disney and CBS to fork out more money per member.

I can't imagine that Iowa St would make Disney and CBS fork over a combined 50 million dollars a year in order to avoid reducing the current members' annual cuts. If the Cyclones were worth anything near that much then the Big XII deal wouldn't be so crappy.
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If they took Iowa St, it'd be part of a big package of teams. There's no way they'd take Iowa St alone, or Iowa St and one other team, and call it a day.
 
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#259
#259
05_never_again said:
If they took Iowa St, it'd be part of a big package of teams. There's no way they'd take Iowa St alone, or Iowa St and one other team, and call it a day.
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The only way IA State gets an invite to the Big 10 is if they can't get a bigger market school.
 
#260
#260
Reporting last night said B10 isn’t interested in expanding at the moment. Can’t say I blame them. No school that they could potentially target seems like a good fit the moment.
 
#263
#263
Grand Vol said:
The exit fees would be made up through two years of SEC Network revenue.
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Latest “inside source” I read is that the payout for the remaining years on the Longhorn Network would pay it off.
 
#264
#264
butchna said:
Latest “inside source” I read is that the payout for the remaining years on the Longhorn Network would pay it off.
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The figures I saw were between $75-80 million per school for the exit fee. The 2019-20 average of the SEC Network per school was $44.6 million. Even "diluting" that number by adding two schools makes it $39 million per.

So, at 2019-20 levels, it would take OU and Texas a couple of years to make back the exit fee just from the SEC Network alone, much less from the revenue the programs would produce by playing an SEC schedule, bowl money, etc.
 
#265
#265
Grand Vol said:
The figures I saw were between $75-80 million per school for the exit fee. The 2019-20 average of the SEC Network per school was $44.6 million. Even "diluting" that number by adding two schools makes it $39 million per.

So, at 2019-20 levels, it would take OU and Texas a couple of years to make back the exit fee just from the SEC Network alone, much less from the revenue the programs would produce by playing an SEC schedule, bowl money, etc.
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Longhorn Network (also owned by ESPN) has 10 years remaining on their deal…about $200 mil. Take thereabouts of $140 mil out of that albatross obligation and bank the savings.
 
#266
#266
Boston Vol said:
Reporting last night said B10 isn’t interested in expanding at the moment. Can’t say I blame them. No school that they could potentially target seems like a good fit the moment.
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Given that evidently OU and Texas aren't moving until 2025, it does give them time to survey the lay of the land and work out some deals, because they are going to have to. They can't do nothing in response to the SEC getting two more major schools.
 
#268
#268
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Reason number #3418659 to never trust Nick Saban. He's the biggest control freak coach ever and "He doesn't know enough about it....." like President Bell at Alabama hasn't fully discussed all this with him.

Nick Saban Shares Thoughts on Oklahoma, Texas Joining the SEC
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It's funny to watch that video and hear Saban reference "people that are above me." I mean, I suppose technically that is true but he's trying to play it off like his opinion doesn't matter and he doesn't know a lot about the situation, which is just hilarious.
 
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#269
#269
05_never_again said:
It's funny to watch that video and hear Saban reference "people that are above me." I mean, I suppose technically that is true but he's trying to play it off like his opinion doesn't matter and he doesn't know a lot about the situation, which is just hilarious.
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That pause after he says "people who are above me"...... before saying "organizationally and administratively"..... is the timing of freaking John Gotti saying, "what do I know? I'm just a small business owner ...."
 
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#274
#274
bamawriter said:
I'm not sure about that. I mean, nothing would surprise me. But if you're Kansas, and you get an invite from the Big 10, do you play chicken with OU and Texas, hoping to get a one-time influx $20 million (assuming the high end estimate for OU and Texas's exit fees is correct) or do you split immediately so you can start making $50 million a year? Same goes for Tech and/or TCU to the Pac 12. They wouldn't be making as much per year as Kansas, but they'd be doing better than they currently have it in the Big XII.

And as a side note, I keep seeing Iowa St to the Big 10, but for the life of me I can't figure out why the Big 10 would have any interest in them. I think the Cyclones are destined for the AAC along with Baylor and WVU.
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An interesting take on the Big 12 and threats to sue ESPN, the AAC, etc.

Big 12 schools getting involved in taking on ESPN or another conference may not be looked at favorably by places they want to join. Basically, a veiled "not quite blackballing" by ESPN and some shunning by conferences that would like favorable treatment by ESPN.

Obviously, the smallest fish like TCU and TxTech aren't going anywhere significant and have little to lose but Kansas, Iowa State, OK State aspire to places with decent TV revenue and are kind of nipping the heels of the hand they want to get fed by.

I can see that angle because I don't trust ESPN not to basically say without saying it: go to the AAC or you'll never play football on this TV again.
 
#275
#275
bamawriter said:
I'm not sure about that. I mean, nothing would surprise me. But if you're Kansas, and you get an invite from the Big 10, do you play chicken with OU and Texas, hoping to get a one-time influx $20 million (assuming the high end estimate for OU and Texas's exit fees is correct) or do you split immediately so you can start making $50 million a year? Same goes for Tech and/or TCU to the Pac 12. They wouldn't be making as much per year as Kansas, but they'd be doing better than they currently have it in the Big XII.

And as a side note, I keep seeing Iowa St to the Big 10, but for the life of me I can't figure out why the Big 10 would have any interest in them. I think the Cyclones are destined for the AAC along with Baylor and WVU.
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You have to make a move to the B1G if there's an opportunity. The long term costs of losing out are far greater than what they'd incur to make this move. And the B1G is really the only other conference who is going to be even remotely competitive in the long term w the SEC.
 
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