I've read all of this garbage and I've gotten sucked in like everyone else. Here's my take.
I've made a decent living from being able to synthesize data, extract the relevant information and draw correct conclusions; but I've never seen anything like this.
I have no contacts, info, etc. I'm trying to form an opinion here and wading through all the manure to get there is a chore.
Theories:
Butch's fate was sealed weeks ago and an agreement has been reached on his resignation. Some effort to get the horse back in the barn after the info leaked out, but this one is done. Too many reliable folks indicating this.
Jon Gruden is a candidate, the candidate, for the job. Same as above. Too many reasonable people reporting this information. He is a candidate, not a unicorn.
Gruden's original answer prior to seeing any offer was, "no thanks." One respected writer on TOS explicitly said over a week ago Gruden would not be the next coach at UT. Over time it became apparent his sources came from the Gruden camp, not the UT camp.
Gruden's original answer reminds me of Saban's original answer when Bama was courting him. What else could Gruden say, especially since we still have a coach. But it wasn't a final answer, since he didn't have all the information.
Solid leaks aren't coming from within UT. It's been detailed how Currie works and how tightly he keeps the lid on searches. Staff have apparently been reminded that leaks can lead to "future endeavors." Widely reported that very few, perhaps less than 5 other people, are privy to the actual progress of the search. Given this, it precludes any of the leaks coming here or elsewhere from being related to people directly involved. So, they're either related but not directly involved parties at UT, friends and family of the Gruden's or folks full of crap. I suspect we're seeing all three in this thread.
Nothing will be finalized, announced, etc with any coach at this point. The idea that some folks have that a deal will be reached now and information will be dispersed is ridiculous. They've not even announced Jones' departure. No verifiable information will emanate from UT until after the resignation is announced.
The Gruden deal is not dead. There are too many problems with this theory. First, if Gruden is truly Currie's 1-10th choice, then being turned down once or twice would not deter Currie. Likewise, Gruden's agent isn't going to just go along with whatever first theoretical offer is tossed out. As folks have said this will be protracted and fluid. Second, things shifted from stunningly positive to despairingly negative too fast. I suspect on that regard, Currie got tired of the leaks and decided to put out misinformation. Not to hide the fact that a deal was done, but just to relieve pressure and keep as many folks as possible out of the process. Third, as several folks have pointed out, the money is moving against the general sentiment. There's a reason that people don't beat the market investing. Those with information don't speak, they just move money. If there was real momentum that he was going to a pro franchise instead of UT, the odds would not have tumbled the way they did.
The visit to Knoxville, the house hunting and the messages from the fraternity angles have been overplayed. None provide any real evidence of Gruden's intentions. These to me are nothing but red herrings that make great internet rumor fodder. Would be different if the Grudens didn't already have so many ties to the area, but because they do, there are plenty of reasons for them to be in town and looking to buy a house and live there at least part of the time.
On the other hand, the money is not an issue and neither is MNF. These are things that can be worked out fairly easily if parties on both sides are motivated.
So all this typing to conclude this:
- Jones is gone and it appears this will become public sooner rather than later.
- Coach Fulmer will finish the year, at least the regular season
- Gruden is being recruited, but it's still in process. No decision points have been reached.
- The good feelings from the past two days reveal he was more receptive than some thought, but no more than that.
- The bad feelings today are either over-reaction to natural negotiations or a smokescreen to throw people off the story
- No deal is inked or dead with any candidate. I believe the earliest we'll hear about any full-time coach hire will be the week of Missouri or LSU. Gruden or otherwise.
- I hope like heck it's Gruden, but I believe JAV and others in that even if it's not, I don't think there is any chance we're pulling from the MAC or Sunbelt this time.
- I have wasted an inordinate amount of time on this mess and I'm going to bed.
