IMO, the most comforting and scariest realization as you get older and become an adult (I'm 24) is that... No one knows what they are doing. Neighbors, the person in front of you at the store, your parents, teachers. They are all just putting on a facade of confidence just like I am, and they don't have any more figured out about the world that I do. It's comforting. Then you realize, the people in charge, and the people in power... They don't know what they are doing either. That's scary.
Anyway. All of that to say, Occam's razor folks. Look at what's most likely. If we assume the rumor that Gruden turned down the job is coming from legit sources, then what is more likely: The AD has so much control over the situation that they can actually manipulate leaked information how they want to. Or... The information is true.