Official Global Warming thread (merged)

#4,051
#4,051
Ofcourse this was over looked in 2007.


To evaluate the effect of such changes on the volume of the seasonally thawing
organic material, we overlaid the permafrost projections on the digitized geographically
referenced contours of 59 846 wetlands in the Russian Arctic. Results for the mid-21st century
climate indicated up to 50% increase in the volume of organic substrate in the northernmost
locations along the Arctic coast and in East Siberia, where wetlands are sparse, and a relatively
small increase by 10%–15% in West Siberia, where wetlands occupy 50%–80% of the land. We
developed a soil carbon model and used it to estimate the changes in the methane fluxes due to
higher soil temperature and increased substrate availability. According to our results, by
mid-21st century the annual net flux of methane from Russian permafrost regions may increase
by 6–8 Mt, depending on climatic scenario. If other sinks and sources of methane remain
unchanged, this may increase the overall content of methane in the atmosphere by
approximately 100 Mt, or 0.04 ppm, and lead to 0.012 ◦C global temperature rise.


http://permafrost.su/sites/default/files/erl2007.pdf
 
#4,054
#4,054
Sandvol said:
What does that have to do with anything? That proves AGW? So, reinsurance against catastrophic climate events proves AGW? OK, now I understand causality.
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You said the market would respond to harm “long before” any harm occurs. That’s not how causality works :p

I know what you meant, but it’s still foolish. We can’t ‘undo’ climate change. Just like you can’t buy insurance after the fact.

v8ccqht.jpg


And my examples show how the market is in fact already aware of and responding to climate change. In the case of insurance, companies are responding by raising rates or leaving the market altogether in some places. The gaps are then filled by state flood, fire, and crop insurance programs that put taxpayers on the hook for risky business. Here's some more light reading:

How the insurance industry sees climate change
Flooding, fires and food: Climate change is costing taxpayers plenty
GAO Report: Climate Change Puts Taxpayers on the Hook for Higher Costs, More Risk from Flood and Crop Insurance
Insurance, Tax, Climate Groups Hit Possible Delay in Flood Insurance Changes
Oregon worries it will lose wildfire insurance

We’re already spending billion$ annually treating the symptoms of climate change. It’s time we seriously address the underlying causes.
 
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#4,055
#4,055
Miami’s climate catch-22: Building waterfront condos to pay for protection against the rising sea
MIAMI BEACH – Argentine developer Alan Faena recently listed the most expensive condo in this city’s history at $55 million. The Mid Beach penthouse features a private elevator, an infinity pool, an uninterrupted view of the Atlantic.
The catch: The tower stands on what scientists call one of America’s most vulnerable floodplains.

But Miami Beach needs this penthouse — and many more like it. The more developers build here, the more taxes and fees the city collects to fund a $300-million storm water project to defend the shore against the rising sea. Approval of these luxury homes on what environmentalists warn is global warming quicksand amounts to a high-stakes bet that Miami Beach can, essentially, out-build climate change and protect its $27 billion worth of real estate.

By 2020, Miami Beach plans to complete 80 new storm pumps that will collect and banish up to 14,000 gallons of seawater per minute back into Biscayne Bay. Construction started in February. The goal is to reduce sunny day flooding — which frequently invades streets at high tide whether or not it is raining — and prepare the community for future ocean swell.

“We’re showing the world, the investment community — what we do works,” Levine said. “That brings calm, comfort and security to everyone.”

A mock movie poster hangs in his office, featuring “Pump Man” and “King Tide.” Coming soon to a street near you.

The $300 million project is ambitious for a city with a $502 million annual budget. A new stormwater utility fee on homeowners, hotels and stores helped Miami Beach save enough money to borrow the first $100 million.

The project started before planners worked out all the funding. It’s unclear how the city will raise the rest. “We don’t have time for analysis-paralysis,” said Levine. “We are going to have to get creative.”
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Warming world's rising seas wash away some of South Florida's glitz
South Beach stank of ****. There is no nice way to put it. The place smelled of human waste. There had been a brief, heavy downpour but the water could not escape, so the sewers backed up and filled the roads. The traffic slowed to walking pace or seized entirely, and the models tottering between the restaurants and hotels and clubs had to pick wide arcs on the pavements to avoid the nasty pools swelling from the gutters.

Only the people seemed to take it in their stride, perhaps because this sort of thing is no longer unusual in and around Miami.

A couple of days later I stood on a sealed road in a park in the southern suburbs of Miami – again ankle deep in water – with Harold Wanless, chairman and professor at the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Miami, to discuss why the place was so wet. The answer was not complicated. "The ocean has risen," he says with laugh. "It is what it is."

While much of the nation argues about whether or not California's once-in-a-thousand-year drought or the $US71 billion devastation of Hurricane Sandy might have been caused or exacerbated by climate change – or indeed whether or not the phenomenon even exists – in Southern Florida today you wander about in the water and see what it looks like when rising seas hit a modern western city.

As Wanless and I walk along Matheson Park Road, a family of little white ibises wading a few steps ahead of us, he explains why this area is already being regularly inundated.
Not only is much of the region just 1.5 metres above sea level, much of it is built on porous limestone. As the sea levels rise – and since 1930 they have risen about 30 cms says Wanless – the water rises in the ground itself.

Residents and businesses started noticing the periodic flooding just a few years back. On full moon high tides the streets would often fill and the lower-lying areas would be inundated. Choked with water, many of the sewers failed. Wanless remembers when he first started getting calls for help from local authorities.

"In around 2008 or 2009, one of the first years we had a lot of water in the Miami Beach area, the public works people called me for help and I went into this room in their government building and they were all in their coats and ties and they said, 'We are having a little problem in Miami Beach, we are getting water in the streets. Where do you suggest we put it?'

"I held my laughter. The ocean had arrived. You can put the water anywhere you want, but it is going to keep coming."

Wanless believes the hundreds of millions of dollars that have already been spent of flood mitigation infrastructure around Miami have been wasted because the sea cannot be held back.

"We are in the position where we think we are going to fight it and win. We are not going to win."
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#4,056
#4,056
Knoxville Named a 'Climate Action Champion' by White House
December 3, 2014 - The Obama Administration today named the City of Knoxville as a "Climate Action Champion," one of 16 communities across the country to receive the new designation in recognition of efforts to mitigate and prepare for the possible effects of climate change.

Earlier this fall the White House launched the Climate Action Champions competition to identify and recognize local climate leaders and to provide targeted federal support to help those communities further raise their ambitions. Following a competitive process led by the Department of Energy, the Administration today announced the first cohort of Climate Action Champions. Knoxville is the only municipality in the Southeastern U.S. to make the list. (You can see the full list at FACT SHEET: 16 U.S. Communities Recognized as Climate Action Champions for Leadership on Climate Change | The White House.)

Knoxville was recognized for its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. "In order to execute on those targets," the White House said, "the city developed a planning process that engages the major stakeholders, including utilities and community grassroots organizations, and formalizes efforts to integrate energy provision, utilization, procurement, waste, and urban/agricultural use into the city's Energy and Sustainability Work Plan."

Based on the City's latest inventory (detailed in the 2014 Energy & Sustainability Work Plan [PDF]), emissions from municipal operations are down 12.99 percent and community emissions are down 7.75 percent relative to 2005 levels.
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Go Vols!
 
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#4,058
#4,058
BartW said:
You said the market would respond to harm “long before” any harm occurs. That’s not how causality works :p

I know what you meant, but it’s still foolish. We can’t ‘undo’ climate change. Just like you can’t buy insurance after the fact.

v8ccqht.jpg


And my examples show how the market is in fact already aware of and responding to climate change. In the case of insurance, companies are responding by raising rates or leaving the market altogether in some places. The gaps are then filled by state flood, fire, and crop insurance programs that put taxpayers on the hook for risky business. Here's some more light reading:

How the insurance industry sees climate change
Flooding, fires and food: Climate change is costing taxpayers plenty
GAO Report: Climate Change Puts Taxpayers on the Hook for Higher Costs, More Risk from Flood and Crop Insurance
Insurance, Tax, Climate Groups Hit Possible Delay in Flood Insurance Changes
Oregon worries it will lose wildfire insurance

We’re already spending billion$ annually treating the symptoms of climate change. It’s time we seriously address the underlying causes.
Click to expand...

What does any of this have to do with anything supporting the notion of AGW? Nothing. Climate change has always occurred and always will. And, insurances companies will always react to it.
 
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#4,059
#4,059
VolsNSkinsFan said:
Global Sea Ice Breaks Record High For The Day – Antarctic Sea Ice Also Breaks Record High For the Day | Climate Depot
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Yes, Antarctic sea ice is growing. December is neither a max nor min for ice extents. The full article won’t load but I like this immediate derp:

Arctic ice returns to 1984 levels: Area of Arctic sea ice is nearly identical to 30 years ago
arctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2014_day_363_1981-2010.png

Sandvol said:
What does any of this have to do with anything supporting the notion of AGW? Nothing. Climate change has always occurred and always will. And, insurances companies will always react to it.
Click to expand...
Go back and read your posts. Let me know when you’re all caught up
 
#4,061
#4,061
Hey VNSF, remember this?

VolsNSkinsFan said:
The article is about how a non-catholic group wrote a letter to the pope about global warming.
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VolsNSkinsFan said:
Im sure [the pope] will talk about how we need to be good stewards of the earth, but I doubt he talks about CO2 emissions. When its actually published, be sure to read what he actually writes and not what the AP or some blog thinks
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Flashforward…

Pope Francis’s edict on climate change will anger deniers and US churches
In 2015, the pope will issue a lengthy message on the subject to the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics, give an address to the UN general assembly and call a summit of the world’s main religions.

The reason for such frenetic activity, says Bishop Marcelo Sorondo, chancellor of the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Sciences, is the pope’s wish to directly influence next year’s crucial UN climate meeting in Paris, when countries will try to conclude 20 years of fraught negotiations with a universal commitment to reduce emissions.

“Our academics supported the pope’s initiative to influence next year’s crucial decisions,” Sorondo told Cafod, the Catholic development agency, at a meeting in London. “The idea is to convene a meeting with leaders of the main religions to make all people aware of the state of our climate and the tragedy of social exclusion.”

Following a visit in March to Tacloban, the Philippine city devastated in 2012 by typhoon Haiyan, the pope will publish a rare encyclical on climate change and human ecology. Urging all Catholics to take action on moral and scientific grounds, the document will be sent to the world’s 5,000 Catholic bishops and 400,000 priests, who will distribute it to parishioners.

“The monopolising of lands, deforestation, the appropriation of water, inadequate agro-toxics are some of the evils that tear man from the land of his birth. Climate change, the loss of biodiversity and deforestation are already showing their devastating effects in the great cataclysms we witness,” he said.

In Lima last month, bishops from every continent expressed their frustration with the stalled climate talks and, for the first time, urged rich countries to act.

Sorondo, a fellow Argentinian who is known to be close to Pope Francis, said: “Just as humanity confronted revolutionary change in the 19th century at the time of industrialisation, today we have changed the natural environment so much. If current trends continue, the century will witness unprecedented climate change and destruction of the ecosystem with tragic consequences.”
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Will the voice of God sway your opinion?
 
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#4,064
#4,064
#4,065
#4,065
BartW said:
Yes, Antarctic sea ice is growing. December is neither a max nor min for ice extents. The full article won’t load but I like this immediate derp:

Arctic ice returns to 1984 levels: Area of Arctic sea ice is nearly identical to 30 years ago
arctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2014_day_363_1981-2010.png


Go back and read your posts. Let me know when you’re all caught up
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The insurance industry sells policies. That is how they make money. They will keep selling policies and keep selling policies and not set aside enough assets to cover loses when catastrophes hit and then cry foul, or global warming or whatever when they want the taxpayer to come to their rescue. It doesn't mean anything.
 
#4,066
#4,066
You know Bart the apocalyptic predictions just aren't happening. The models aren't correct. The feedbacks aren't times 3. They aren't even times 1. The poles aren't melting. So you and your minions are throwing out all these Red Herrings that don't mean anything. If you weren't such a liberal hack you'd admit you've been wrong with this whole thing and apologize to everyone on the board. But it isn't about being right or wrong is it? It is about your agenda.
 
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#4,067
#4,067
Sandvol said:
You know Bart the apocalyptic predictions just aren't happening. The models aren't correct. The feedbacks aren't times 3. They aren't even times 1. The poles aren't melting. So you and your minions are throwing out all these Red Herrings that don't mean anything. If you weren't such a liberal hack you'd admit you've been wrong with this whole thing and apologize to everyone on the board. But it isn't about being right or wrong is it? It is about your agenda.
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But sometimes Miami gets flooded. It's because of the polar ice caps disappearing due to global warming. It has to because that's what I've vested my entire "education" on.
 
#4,070
#4,070
Sandvol said:
So, you're an atheist or agnostic but you use the Pope to say God says man is causing climate change? Jesus!
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If you want to label me as such, that’s fine. I don’t have a positive belief in a personal creator. I went into depth when you prodded me in the God thread way back but never saw a reply.

The Pope has a lot of sway. Acting on climate change aligns with Christian values. Do I have to be Catholic to point this out?
Sandvol said:
The insurance industry sells policies. That is how they make money. They will keep selling policies and keep selling policies and not set aside enough assets to cover loses when catastrophes hit and then cry foul, or global warming or whatever when they want the taxpayer to come to their rescue. It doesn't mean anything.
Click to expand...
The insurance industry must accurately gauge risk to make a profit. Taxpayer money doesn’t bail out private insurance companies when they take losses. Taxpayer money does go to federal insurance programs that insure properties which the market has deemed *too risky*
Sandvol said:
You know Bart the apocalyptic predictions just aren't happening. The models aren't correct. The feedbacks aren't times 3. They aren't even times 1. The poles aren't melting. So you and your minions are throwing out all these Red Herrings that don't mean anything. If you weren't such a liberal hack you'd admit you've been wrong with this whole thing and apologize to everyone on the board. But it isn't about being right or wrong is it? It is about your agenda.
Click to expand...

lol_vladimir_putin.gif
 
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#4,071
#4,071
Lol


So Bart and the like blow off the methane. Regardless of the numbers?

Guess we can't ***** about Mother Nature. Much less tax her and make it go away.
(Or feel better about ourselves)
 
#4,072
#4,072
BartW said:
Nope

Climate Change Worsens Coastal Flooding From High Tides

New Study Finds Steep Increase in East Coast High-Tide Floods

The huge, hidden cost of protecting homeowners from the rising sea

If only
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I lived in Folly Beach, SC about 35 years ago. I was back there about 4 years ago and you know what? The beach is in the exact same place it was in 1979. If you and your fellow alarmists were correct, I would barely have made it past James Island before hitting the surf.

And yes, I realize that my anecdote doesn't mean much, but neither does the claim of erosion due to AGW hold much water.
 
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#4,073
#4,073
BartW said:
Heathen!

Papal Infallibility

Yes, we will see what he writes.
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Are you going to be disappointed when he doesn't call SUV owners sinners? He is basically going to say the same stuff pope JP ii & Benedict have said. You also realize the CC is pro-life and that is in direct conflict with most climate change advocates who push for abortion as a population control.

What a terrible side to be on "hey let's push abortions on poor people because Ocean Drive in South Beach might flood"
 
#4,074
#4,074
VolsNSkinsFan said:
Are you going to be disappointed when he doesn't call SUV owners sinners? He is basically going to say the same stuff pope JP ii & Benedict have said. You also realize the CC is pro-life and that is in direct conflict with most climate change advocates who push for abortion as a population control.

What a terrible side to be on "hey let's push abortions on poor people because Ocean Drive in South Beach might flood"
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Let's not forget we are going to have to go vegetarian as well to reduce the cow fart problem that is killing the planet.
 
#4,075
#4,075
Obsessed said:
Lol

So Bart and the like blow off the methane. Regardless of the numbers?

Guess we can't ***** about Mother Nature. Much less tax her and make it go away.
(Or feel better about ourselves)
Click to expand...
Huh? Methane is a relatively potent albeit short-lived greenhouse gas. We should (and are) paying attention to methane emissions from melting permafrost, clathrates, etc.

One thing we need to do a better job of is monitoring methane leaks from fracking. It appears they’re significantly higher than what industry reports to the EPA. There’s a ton of misinformation about fracking out there (which on the whole is relatively safe) but that is one legitimate concern.

Tackling methane won’t accomplish squat without cutting CO2 emissions though.
 
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