Official Global Warming thread (merged)

#6,726
#6,726
BartW said:
Hillary’s hit squad strikes again! My, how a couple of days changes things…

To be clear (for those who don’t read), the SCOTUS did not strike down Obama’s power plant regulations. The court didn’t rule on the content of those regulations at all. They just issued a stay and sent it back to a lower court, which is expected to rule favorably. The case will reach the SCOTUS again. Obama’s administration expected as much. Even before Scalia’s passing, though, it seemed likely that the supreme court would uphold the climate rules. It was in fact their rulings in previous years which paved the way for these new regulations under the Clean Air Act. That's why even a stay was unexpected.

So what now? If Republicans block any Obama nomination then a 4-4 tie will uphold the lower court's decision on his climate rules. If they don’t block the nomination it should be 5-4 in favor. If they do block Obama’s guy, Hillary could pick a far left-winger and it will definitely be 5-4 in favor.

But even if/when SCOTUS approves the rule, the next president could undo them. So in essence nothing has really changed. The future of our climate policy still depends on who we elect this year.
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To be clearer (for those who think people don't read), the stay was granted to avoid repeating the debacle of the MATS compliance ruling. EPA issued the MATS regulation, and power generating stations were forced to comply. This cost was in most cases (regulated utilities) passed through to rate payers as the PSC grants leniency for EPA compliance during a rate case. After many power plants invested Billions (with a B) of dollars to achieve MATS compliance and many more were retired due to financial viability in regards to technology and process upgrades to reach this level of compliance, SCOTUS ruled last summer that EPA had no authority to enforce MATS. The stay granted to the industry in regards to the CPP will actually allow the case to be heard prior to plants closing and Billions of dollars being charged to people who use electricity. The lower court ruling is expected in September. Any appeal to SCOTUS would drag into new year. The next justice appointed will have the deciding vote. I don't agree with Trump on many things, but in regards to my electric bill, "Delay, delay, delay."
 
#6,727
#6,727
TheColdVolTruth said:
To be clearer (for those who think people don't read), the stay was granted to avoid repeating the debacle of the MATS compliance ruling. EPA issued the MATS regulation, and power generating stations were forced to comply. This cost was in most cases (regulated utilities) passed through to rate payers as the PSC grants leniency for EPA compliance during a rate case. After many power plants invested Billions (with a B) of dollars to achieve MATS compliance and many more were retired due to financial viability in regards to technology and process upgrades to reach this level of compliance, SCOTUS ruled last summer that EPA had no authority to enforce MATS. The stay granted to the industry in regards to the CPP will actually allow the case to be heard prior to plants closing and Billions of dollars being charged to people who use electricity. The lower court ruling is expected in September. Any appeal to SCOTUS would drag into new year. The next justice appointed will have the deciding vote. I don't agree with Trump on many things, but in regards to my electric bill, "Delay, delay, delay."
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People don’t read…

SCOTUS still didn’t kill the MATS rule; they sent it back to circuit court (which ruled that the EPA could continue enforcing the rule while it is 'fixed'). The difference between the cases is that with MATS the compliance period began before the rule got through the legal system, 3-4 years. The compliance period for the Clean Power Plan doesn’t start until 2022, 8 years after it was proposed. I think that should be plenty of time to get everything sorted out. Nothing would surprise me though.

I do agree that this stay might not have happened if not for the MATS issue. I’m sure the Obama administration would have loved for the CPP to play out similarly where significant investments are made before a ruling is issued and the ruling becomes moot. That may still be the case. Many states are moving forward with the clean power plan anyways.

Delaying might work out for the GOP. It could backfire. We’ll see :popcorn:
 
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#6,728
#6,728
“The Old Normal Is Gone”: February Shatters Global Temperature Records
There are dozens of global temperature datasets, and usually I (and my climate journalist colleagues) wait until the official ones are released about the middle of the following month to announce a record-warm month at the global level. But this month’s data is so extraordinary that there’s no need to wait: February obliterated the all-time global temperature record set just last month.

Using unofficial data and adjusting for different base-line temperatures, it appears that February 2016 was likely somewhere between 1.15 and 1.4 degrees warmer than the long-term average, and about 0.2 degrees above last month—good enough for the most above-average month ever measured


The data for February is so overwhelming that even prominent climate change skeptics have already embraced the new record. Writing on his blog, former NASA scientist Roy Spencer said that according to satellite records—the dataset of choice by climate skeptics for a variety of reasons—February 2016 featured “whopping” temperature anomalies especially in the Arctic. Spurred by disbelief, Spencer also checked his data with others released today and said the overlap is “about as good as it gets.” Speaking with the Washington Post, Spencer said the February data proves “there has been warming. The question is how much warming there’s been.”

Of course, all this is happening in the context of a record-setting El Niño, which tends to boost global temperatures for as much as six or eight months beyond its wintertime peak—mainly because it takes that long for excess heat to filter its way across the planet from the tropical Pacific Ocean. But El Niño isn’t entirely responsible for the absurd numbers we’re seeing.
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UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2016_v6-768x443.jpg


Global warming stopped 17 years ago, right SandVol? Ted Cruz?

Also,
Cyclone Winston, Strongest Southern Hemisphere Storm in History, Hits Fiji
 
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#6,730
#6,730
Sandvol said:
You do realize El Nino is a natural event?
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Pppbbbffffttt. Poppycock and Tom Foolery. All major weather events are caused by human beings. We have been keeping accurate, scientific weather data for at least the past 2 billion years. That data clearly states that we humans are the sole reason for any abnormal weather patterns. This about right Bart?
 
#6,731
#6,731
Apparently diCarprio said we need to do something about global warming. So there it is. from the expert hisself.
 
#6,733
#6,733
Sandvol said:
You do realize El Nino is a natural event?
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I never suggested otherwise. I take it you now realize why it's dishonest to claim global warming stopped in 1998...

Why is 2016 smashing heat records?
These tumbling temperature records are often accompanied in media reports by the caveat that we are experiencing a particularly strong El Niño - perhaps the largest in history. But should El Niño and climate change be given equal billing? No, according to Professor Michael Mann, the director of Penn State Earth System Science Centre. He said it was possible to look back over the temperature records and assess the impact of an El Niño on global temperatures. “A number of folks have done this,” he said, “and come to the conclusion it was responsible for less than 0.1C of the anomalous warmth. In other words, we would have set an all-time global temperature record [in 2015] even without any help from El Niño.”

Jeff Knight from the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, said their modelling set the additional heat from a big El Niño, like the current one, at about 0.2C. He said wind patterns in the northern hemisphere had added another 0.1C to recent monthly readings. “The bottom line is that the contributions of the current El Niño and wind patterns to the very warm conditions globally over the last couple of months are relatively small compared to the anthropogenically driven increase in global temperature since pre-industrial times,” he added. Steffen said the definitive assessment of this El Niño and its effect on the world’s temperature would only be possible once the event had run its course (it has now peaked and is expected to end in the second quarter of this year). But he agreed that past El Niño cycles could be an appropriate guide for the order of magnitude of the effect.

Steffen says quantifying the relative contributions of El Niño and climate change on a monthly or even annual basis cannot help to answer how fast the world is warming. Only trends over 30 years really matter. But the pile up of records we have had in the early part of this century are significant. All things being constant, record hot years should occur once every 150 years. Yet 1998, 2005, 2010, 2014 and 2015 have all been record breakers. A study published in January found that even without last year’s mammoth anomaly such a run was 600 to 130,000 times more likely to have occurred with human interference than without. “The fact that you are getting records so close, one after the other is really striking. And that is symptomatic of that long-term trend,” said Steffen.
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Global warming is the reason we're constantly in record territory, and El Nino is the immediate reason we're presently breaking records. Capisce?
 
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#6,734
#6,734
BartW said:
UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2016_v6-768x443.jpg


Global warming stopped 17 years ago, right SandVol? Ted Cruz?
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My bad, it appears Ted Cruz liked to use RSS. I wonder if he'll change his act after their latest "adjustment"

Ted Cruz's favorite temperature data just got a lot hotter
In a new paper, Carl Mears and Frank Wentz at Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) have revised their data set estimating the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. At his recent congressional hearing, Ted Cruz presented the RSS data to incorrectly claim that there’s been no global warming in over 18 years. As I noted at the time, RSS had the only data that could remotely support Senator Cruz’s argument. Surface and ocean temperatures have warmed, ice has melted, sea levels have risen, species have been forced to migrate, spring has begun earlier, and so on.

That’s no longer the case. In their new paper, Mears and Wentz detail the revised RSS method to account for drift in the time of day at which satellites measure the same location on Earth (known as “diurnal drift”, discussed by Mears at the 0:47 mark in the above video). They applied a method suggested by Stephen Po-Chedley and colleagues at the University of Washington in an important paper covered by John Abraham last year. As a result, the new version of RSS (v4.0) shows about 60% more warming than the previous version (v3.3) since the record began in 1979. This new adjustment also helps to reconcile the divergence between atmospheric temperature estimates from satellites and weather balloons. Over most of the temperature record, the estimates using the two different types of instruments have been similar, and the satellite data are calibrated with the weather ballon data. However, over the past decade, the weather balloons had shown significantly more atmospheric warming than the satellite estimates. RSS v4.0 goes a long way toward bringing these measurements into closer agreement.

This new paper and latest RSS adjustment once again highlight the challenges scientists face in converting measurements of atmospheric microwave emissions by satellites in orbit into a synthetic temperature estimate. It’s a complicated process that requires a complex model with large uncertainties involved, and as Carl Mears has noted, it’s certainly unwise to rely exclusively on these estimates of one small component of the Earth’s climate to evaluate global warming. Nevertheless, Spencer has just reported that February 2016 was the hottest month on record in the UAH data set; the same is true of RSS, and weather balloons are also registering record hot atmospheric temperatures, as the above chart shows.

It’s now clear that Senator Cruz has been hoisted by his own petard. He and his hearing witnesses claimed that the satellite data from RSS represent our best measurement of global warming. While that’s not true, this latest correction to the RSS record shows that global warming continues, in the atmosphere as with every other component of the Earth’s climate, at record hot levels. Instead of congressional hearings denying the existence of global warming, we need hearings to debate the best way to solve the problem.
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#6,736
#6,736
BartW said:
I never suggested otherwise. I take it you now realize why it's dishonest to claim global warming stopped in 1998...

Why is 2016 smashing heat records?

Global warming is the reason we're constantly in record territory, and El Nino is the immediate reason we're presently breaking records. Capisce?
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Ah and here we are again only using a very small blip in the Earths age to push the agenda. Those records go back how long again? Sheesh how long are you really going to keep up this farce?
 
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#6,738
#6,738
BigOrangeTrain said:
Ah and here we are again only using a very small blip in the Earths age to push the agenda. Those records go back how long again? Sheesh how long are you really going to keep up this farce?
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Bart's going to have a tough time with his message when the La Nina occurs.
 
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#6,739
#6,739
BigOrangeTrain said:
Ah and here we are again only using a very small blip in the Earths age to push the agenda. Those records go back how long again? Sheesh how long are you really going to keep up this farce?
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My only agenda is to bring some sense and balance to a thread that otherwise reflects poorly on my alma mater. Outside VN I'm not politically active.

Putting aside the fact that we can tell what the climate was like before 1979 and that Earth is warming 50x faster than when it comes out of an ice age, you do realize that those claiming global warming stopped in 1998 were using a significantly smaller blip, right?
 
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#6,740
#6,740
Sandvol said:
Bart's going to have a tough time with his message when the La Nina occurs.
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Yes, it will be simply awful when I have to pull out that escalator gif again to explain how trends work irl while you transition to the "No global warming since 2016" argument.

Betcha La Nina won't cause any record cold months...
 
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#6,742
#6,742
BartW said:
My only agenda is to bring some sense and balance to a thread that otherwise reflects poorly on my alma mater. Outside VN I'm not politically active.

Putting aside the fact that we can tell what the climate was like before 1979 and that Earth is warming 50x faster than when it comes out of an ice age, you do realize that those claiming global warming stopped in 1998 were using a significantly smaller blip, right?
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Those trying to keep you from the ledge are offering balance.

Add some reason to your scare tactics. It will all be ok.
 
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#6,743
#6,743
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#6,744
#6,744
BartW said:
Yes, it will be simply awful when I have to pull out that escalator gif again to explain how trends work irl while you transition to the "No global warming since 2016" argument.

Betcha La Nina won't cause any record cold months...
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Betcha this next Ice Age will. We don't have a warming problem. We have a cooling problem. When are you going to realize that?
 
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#6,745
#6,745
If the planet were to warm several degrees we'd still have a way to feed ourselves. When it cools several degrees billions are going to die.
 
#6,747
#6,747
BigOrangeTrain said:
Pppbbbffffttt. Poppycock and Tom Foolery. All major weather events are caused by human beings. We have been keeping accurate, scientific weather data for at least the past 2 billion years. That data clearly states that we humans are the sole reason for any abnormal weather patterns. This about right Bart?
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Don't forget sin.....it causes God to punish us with bad weather
 
#6,749
#6,749
BartW said:
Yes, it will be simply awful when I have to pull out that escalator gif again to explain how trends work irl while you transition to the "No global warming since 2016" argument.

Betcha La Nina won't cause any record cold months...
Click to expand...

And your escalator is a pimple on an elephant's ass.
 

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