Official Bubble Watch/Games to watch thread

#826
#826
volforlife44 said:
Isn't this situation a catch 22? We want to root for San Fran but don't want a bid stolen here so that would mean that we want Gonzaga and BYU in final. In a situation like this, what helps Tennessee more at this point? I just want to make sure i'm rooting for the right team tonight :)
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I wouldn't say it's a Catch-22. We just can't have both BYU and Gonzaga lose. One of them needs to win, and since Zaga is pretty much safely in the tournament, it would be better for BYU to lose and Zaga win it all.
 
#827
#827
Preview of bubble teams in conference tournaments:

(Sorry for the long post)

BYU – Outside of winning their conference tournament, they are going to be riding the bubble since beating San Francisco in the WCC Semis tonight isn’t a quality win by any means. However, as long as they win tonight, they probably stay on the right side of the bubble even with a loss to Gonzaga.

St Joe's/Dayton – St Joe’s received the 4th seed & 1st and 2nd round byes. Dayton the 5th with a 1st round bye. Unfortunately at least one of these teams is going to make the dance. They will likely face each other on Thursday in the Quarterfinals in what would be a play-in game. The ideal scenario, of course, is that George Mason or Fordham beat Dayton in the 2nd round before beating St Joes in the Quarterfinals. Outside of that improbable outcome, take your pick, but I think we should be rooting for St. Joes to beat Dayton just to prevent the chance of having to play Dayton on their home court in one of the “first four” games.

FSU –Play Maryland on Thursday. They would need win that and then against UVA in the next round to get back into tournament contention. Odds: 15%. Probably the best odds that a 9 seed has in any major conference tournament, but still a long shot.

Pittsburgh – I think one win would get them in the tournament. They play the winner of Wake/ND on Thursday, with a win likely. Their next game would be against UNC, who they could beat, but a loss wouldn’t likely knock them off the bubble.

Stanford/Arizona St – Stanford’s first game is against Washington St on Wednesday. In the quarterfinals, they would face Arizona State in what could be a play-in game. A win for either team makes them essentially a lock. The loser is still likely in, but a little nervous come Sunday. ASU currently has a better spot on the ladder, so we would want ASU in that matchup.

Xavier – They play Marquette Thursday night in a tough must-win game. Lose and they’re out. Win, and they play Creighton. A loss to Creighton wouldn’t necessarily knock them out, but they would be at the mercy of the bubble.

Cal – They earned a first round bye as the 4 seed and will play the winner of the USC/Colorado game on Thursday. I think Cal needs 2 wins to make the tournament, and if they draw Colorado, they will have a tough task, as the Buffaloes would likely be favored in that matchup. Cal’s likely Semi-final draw would be Arizona, so I’m putting Cal’s odds of making the dance at 10%.

Minnesota – Also needs to win 2 games. Their first is against Penn State on Thursday. Next would be Wisconsin, who they have beaten once this year. Win that and they’re in. Lose and they are done. Giving them a 25% chance.

Providence/St. John’s – They play an elimination game on Thursday, the loser is out. If Providence wins they would need to beat Villanova in the Semis, otherwise they’re still likely on the wrong side of the bubble. If St Johns wins, they would fall completely off the bubble w a loss to Nova. We want St Johns on Thursday

Georgetown – on the other side of the Big East bracket, Georgetown plays DePaul on Wednesday. Their next game would be against Creighton, who they just beat last week. I don’t know if I would count on them doing it again. If so, they may be on the right side of the bubble but will be sweating it out on Sunday. Giving them a 20% shot.

Teams who are considered in, but could be knocked out with an improbably upset in the first round of their tournament: Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech (Wed); Iowa vs Northwestern (Thur); Nebraska would have to lose to Purdue (who plays Ohio St on Thurs) to be back on the bubble.
 
#828
#828
For us and Arkansas, it just comes down to who wins on Friday (assuming they win their first game). If we lose, we might still be on the the right side of the bubble depending on how the above scenarios shake out. Barring any upsets, I think we would be the last team in
 
#829
#829
golfballs said:
For us and Arkansas, it just comes down to who wins on Friday (assuming they win their first game). If we lose, we might still be on the the right side of the bubble depending on how the above scenarios shake out. Barring any upsets, I think we would be the last team in
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If Arkansas loses and we play, Auburn/SC, I think as long as we don't choke there we will be perfectly fine even if we lose to Florida.
 
#830
#830
PackersVols91 said:
If Arkansas loses and we play, Auburn/SC, I think as long as we don't choke there we will be perfectly fine even if we lose to Florida.
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I think we root to play Arkansas. The good thing about the #4 seed is that we avoided any potential bad losses (Texas A&M, LSU, Vandy, Ole Miss). Beating Arkansas gets us in period. The UF game would then be a mute point... The amazing thing is how bad some of these ranked teams are away. I have never seen so many top 15 teams lose to bad teams just because the game was away... I understand a 10-15 point difference between home and away but this year it seems more like 20-25 which is ridiculous.
 
#831
#831
PackersVols91 said:
If Arkansas loses and we play, Auburn/SC, I think as long as we don't choke there we will be perfectly fine even if we lose to Florida.
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We'd be in. Beating Arkansas would likely elevate us past the last 4 in status. Beating Auburn then losing to Florida would probably send us to Dayton.
 
#832
#832
This Model Has Predicted 73 Of 74 NCAA Tournament At-Large Bids

"While predicting 73 out of 74 at-large bids over the last two seasons is pretty remarkable, it's worth mentioning that historically the model hasn't performed quite as accurately."

Has anyone seen this? For me, this just explains how I feel. The last 4 in and the first 4 out just feels like a dumpster fire. In the end you don't really know. But maybe we should stop getting greedy with moving past the play-in game and just make it...
 
#833
#833
Interesting. 98.6% accurate... I think the error this year would come between GTown and Tennessee. Really doubt they'd be in over us at the moment.
 
#834
#834
golfballs said:
Interesting. 98.6% accurate... I think the error this year would come between GTown and Tennessee. Really doubt they'd be in over us at the moment.
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I was surprised by how high teams like Georgetown and Cal were...and even St. Joes sitting comfortably...but hey they were bad before the last couple years anyway. I just feel like unless they beat Florida, the Vols will be sweating it out...even after knocking out Mizzou/Arkansas. Hard to feel at ease with the selection process.
 
#835
#835
cloftonftw5 said:
I was surprised by how high teams like Georgetown and Cal were...and even St. Joes sitting comfortably...but hey they were bad before the last couple years anyway. I just feel like unless they beat Florida, the Vols will be sweating it out...even after knocking out Mizzou/Arkansas. Hard to feel at ease with the selection process.
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As one of the comments pointed out, anyone with a brain can pick at least 90% of the field every year. It's only a handful of teams that are up in the air. So while they only missed one over the past 2 years, it isn't that earth-shattering, particularly if they were a lot worse than that previously.
 
#836
#836
volforlife44 said:
Isn't this situation a catch 22? We want to root for San Fran but don't want a bid stolen here so that would mean that we want Gonzaga and BYU in final. In a situation like this, what helps Tennessee more at this point? I just want to make sure i'm rooting for the right team tonight :)
Click to expand...

BYU losing and they're likely out, definitely want them to lose.
 
#837
#837
cloftonftw5 said:
This Model Has Predicted 73 Of 74 NCAA Tournament At-Large Bids

"While predicting 73 out of 74 at-large bids over the last two seasons is pretty remarkable, it's worth mentioning that historically the model hasn't performed quite as accurately."

Has anyone seen this? For me, this just explains how I feel. The last 4 in and the first 4 out just feels like a dumpster fire. In the end you don't really know. But maybe we should stop getting greedy with moving past the play-in game and just make it...
Click to expand...

I'm personal friends with Jay Coleman. We discuss this all the time in the offseason. He has a great algorithm here that uses 44+ variables to produce the results. He had us as first team out last year going into the sect. The reason the model didn't work as well 3+ years ago was that it was still "learning" the correct weights.

Notice that we are below the bubble line, but still have an excellent chance of getting in...just depends on the number of upsets!!
 
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#838
#838
cloftonftw5 said:
This Model Has Predicted 73 Of 74 NCAA Tournament At-Large Bids

"While predicting 73 out of 74 at-large bids over the last two seasons is pretty remarkable, it's worth mentioning that historically the model hasn't performed quite as accurately."

Has anyone seen this? For me, this just explains how I feel. The last 4 in and the first 4 out just feels like a dumpster fire. In the end you don't really know. But maybe we should stop getting greedy with moving past the play-in game and just make it...
Click to expand...

I'm feeling ill.
 
#841
#841
By the model, will beating Arky help us other than just not another loss, since they're below us? Seems we have to beat Fl or whom ever in championship game.
 
#843
#843
Manvol said:
By the model, will beating Arky help us other than just not another loss, since they're below us? Seems we have to beat Fl or whom ever in championship game.
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I would think a Tennessee win, coupled with a team or two in front of us losing, and we would hurdle them.
 
#846
#846
Zags got this. I'm gonna be ballsy in my VN bracket and knock the shockers out in the 1st round. Laugh now, revere me later
 
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