Official Bracketology Thread

#576
#576
golfballs said:
Because Tennessee is so awesome, you can’t blame a team for losing to them.

Anyway, I’d be pretty happy w this draw and the location. Also Rhode Island is bouyed by their RPI, and is overseeded here. Cincinnati would be a tough matchup I think, but a Grant Williams/Gary Clark battle would be a good one.
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The thing I love is that this statement is true. Not only does a loss to us not hurt other teams, but a close loss can even help boost them. Was talking about this in the office just a few days ago.
 
#577
#577
golfballs said:
Because Tennessee is so awesome, you can’t blame a team for losing to them.

Anyway, I’d be pretty happy w this draw and the location. Also Rhode Island is bouyed by their RPI, and is overseeded here. Cincinnati would be a tough matchup I think, but a Grant Williams/Gary Clark battle would be a good one.
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But, I can blame them for looking like a flaming dog turd since the "monumental" win against WVU that has apparently bought them further immunity from their average ability.
 
#578
#578
cncchris33 said:
Tennessee now a 3 seed in Lunardi's bracketology. The top 3-seed, I believe.

Auburn now the bottom 3-seed.

Kentucky still the second 5-seed. They are infallible, I guess.
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Yup, best I can tell he has Tennessee as 9th on his seed list (#1 3 seed), starting to see more favorable location due to our climb as well. As Golfballs and I talked about yesterday I would hope the committee would put Cincy in Pittsburgh and Tennessee in Nashville, the different for Cincy is pretty negligible.
 
#579
#579
MockingVol said:
The thing I love is that this statement is true. Not only does a loss to us not hurt other teams, but a close loss can even help boost them. Was talking about this in the office just a few days ago.
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It's not just the loss to us. Were it not for a mind-blowing collapse by Vandy, UK would be on a 3 game skid, with two of those losses coming at Rupp. And I've said this all season too, not just recently. They get a pass from Lunardi for some reason. Even when they fell out of the top-25, they were still in the 5 seed line, suggesting they were one of the 20 best teams in the country.
 
#581
#581
cncchris33 said:
It's not just the loss to us. Were it not for a mind-blowing collapse by Vandy, UK would be on a 3 game skid, with two of those losses coming at Rupp. And I've said this all season too, not just recently. They get a pass from Lunardi for some reason. Even when they fell out of the top-25, they were still in the 5 seed line, suggesting they were one of the 20 best teams in the country.
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They’re definitely overseeded. I think they should be a 7 seed
 
#582
#582
My current s-curve:

1 - 1)UVA 2)Nova 3)Cincy 4)Purdue
2 - 8)Tenn 7)Duke 6)Xavier 5)Kansas
3 - 9)Aub 10)TTech 11)Clems 12)WVU
4 - 16)OSU 15)MSU 14)St Mary 13)UNC
5 - 17)Gonz 18)Okla 19)TAMU 20)Arizona
6 - 24)Fla 23)Creight 22)Miami 21)Rhode Isl
7 - 25)Mizz 26)Wich St 27)UK 28)FSU
8 - 32)TCU 31)Bama 30)Butler 29)Seton H
9 - 33)Houst 34)Prov 35)Ariz St 36)Nevada
10 - 40)VT 39)USC 38)Michigan 37)Texas
11 - 41)KState 42)MTSU 43)Arkas 44)St. Bon 45)Syracuse
12 - 47)SMU 46)Temple

Last 4 - St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, Temple, SMU
First 4 - Boise St, Marquette, Washington, Louisville
Next 4 - Miss St, WKU, NC State, UCLA
 
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#583
#583
golfballs said:
My current s-curve:

1 - 1)UVA 2)Nova 3)Cincy 4)Purdue
2 - 8)Tenn 7)Duke 6)Xavier 5)Kansas
3 - 9)Aub 10)TTech 11)Clems 12)WVU
4 - 16)OSU 15)MSU 14)St Mary 13)UNC
5 - 17)Gonz 18)Okla 19)TAMU 20)Arizona
6 - 24)Fla 23)Creight 22)Miami 21)Rhode Isl
7 - 25)Mizz 26)Wich St 27)UK 28)FSU
8 - 32)TCU 31)Bama 30)Butler 29)Seton H
9 - 33)Houst 34)Prov 35)Ariz St 36)Nevada
10 - 40)VT 39)USC 38)Michigan 37)Texas
11 - 41)KState 42)MTSU 43)Arkas 44)St. Bon 45)Syracuse
12 - 47)SMU 46)Temple

Last 4 - St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, Temple, SMU
First 4 - Boise St, Marquette, Washington, Louisville
Next 4 - Miss St, WKU, NC State, UCLA
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Am I crazy if I think among the 1 seeds UVA isn’t a bad matchup? We’re efficient in the half court pace they like to play, Grant works really well in that high post role vs the zone, and our shooters will get decent looks against the pack defense.

Obviously they’re #1 for a reason, but I think we match up with them better than a lot of other teams.
 
#586
#586
Vols410 said:
Am I crazy if I think among the 1 seeds UVA isn’t a bad matchup? We’re efficient in the half court pace they like to play, Grant works really well in that high post role vs the zone, and our shooters will get decent looks against the pack defense.

Obviously they’re #1 for a reason, but I think we match up with them better than a lot of other teams.
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I said a week or so ago, that of the 1 seeds, I felt we matched up best with UVA. This is when Nova, UVA, Purdue, and Duke were the 1s.

I still like the matchup because I feel like the only type of game we really don't want to get into is an uptempo, fast-paced game played in the 90s. UVA certainly won't do that, and in a possession type game, I feel we have shown we can adapt to win in the paint, or on the perimeter. If we are solid shooting from outside, we can beat them. I would imagine the game would look similar to the Kentucky game at Rupp.
 
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#588
#588
cncchris33 said:
I said a week or so ago, that of the 1 seeds, I felt we matched up best with UVA. This is when Nova, UVA, Purdue, and Duke were the 1s.

I still like the matchup because I feel like the only type of game we really don't want to get into is an uptempo, fast-paced game played in the 90s. UVA certainly won't do that, and in a possession type game, I feel we have shown we can adapt to win in the paint, or on the perimeter. If we are solid shooting from outside, we can beat them. I would imagine the game would look similar to the Kentucky game at Rupp.
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I agree. The thing about Virginia, everybody is a decent match-up against them, because of their style of play. That's probably the reason why they always seem to get upset, when they are a higher seed, since Bennett has been their coach.
 
#589
#589
The Dog said:
I agree. The thing about Virginia, everybody is a decent match-up against them, because of their style of play. That's probably the reason why they always seem to get upset, when they are a higher seed, since Bennett has been their coach.
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More to do with their pace of play. Few possessions means teams are more likely able to keep it relatively close

But their defense is nasty. Like maybe the best defensive team in at least the last 25 years
 
#590
#590
So that S-curve that I've been posting is based on a spreadsheet to project what the teamsheet components will look like at the end of the regular season. It uses forecasted rpi to replace the resume section of the team sheet (does anyone know of projected SOR or KPI?), it leaves the quality ranks as is since they're predictive, and then each team's projected quadrant records. Those quadrants are scored based on win percentage and number of total wins. Then weighted by Q1 at 60%, Q2 at 20%, then Q3 and Q4 at 10% each. It takes an average of that score and the "super-average" from the team sheet. After the committee releases their top 16 next week it will get re-calibrated to match their top 16.

As of today it looks like this:

1 - 1)UVA 2)Nova 3)Cincy 4)Kansas
2 - 8)TT 7)Duke 6)Xavier 5)Purdue
3 - 9)UT 10)UNC 11)Aub 12)Clemson
4 - 16)OK 15)TXAM 14)Mich St 13)WVU
 
#591
#591
golfballs said:
So that S-curve that I've been posting is based on a spreadsheet to project what the teamsheet components will look like at the end of the regular season. It uses forecasted rpi to replace the resume section of the team sheet (does anyone know of projected SOR or KPI?), it leaves the quality ranks as is since they're predictive, and then each team's projected quadrant records. Those quadrants are scored based on win percentage and number of total wins. Then weighted by Q1 at 60%, Q2 at 20%, then Q3 and Q4 at 10% each. It takes an average of that score and the "super-average" from the team sheet. After the committee releases their top 16 next week it will get re-calibrated to match their top 16.

As of today it looks like this:

1 - 1)UVA 2)Nova 3)Cincy 4)Kansas
2 - 8)TT 7)Duke 6)Xavier 5)Purdue
3 - 9)UT 10)UNC 11)Aub 12)Clemson
4 - 16)OK 15)TXAM 14)Mich St 13)WVU
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If UT can go 6-1 I think it’s almost a certainty they will be a 2 seed, would you agree?
 
#592
#592
bleedingTNorange said:
If UT can go 6-1 I think it’s almost a certainty they will be a 2 seed, would you agree?
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This is based on a projection that they lose another 2 games.

Of course it depends on what other teams do. But no, I don't think they'd be a lock for a 2 seed. Go 6-1 and get 1 win in the SECT and I'd definitely like their chances.

Win out in the regular season and they are a lock for a 2 seed.
 
#593
#593
Lose 2 regular season and win the SEC and they're also a lock for a 2.

Even if we lose 2 and don't win the SECT, I think we're pretty safe as a 3 seed. I think a 4 seed is pretty much worst case scenario at this point.
 
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#594
#594
golfballs said:
This is based on a projection that they lose another 2 games.

Of course it depends on what other teams do. But no, I don't think they'd be a lock for a 2 seed. Go 6-1 and get 1 win in the SECT and I'd definitely like their chances.

Win out in the regular season and they are a lock for a 2 seed.
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Are you able to change JUST Tennessee’s projections to losing just 1 game while keeping the others as is and see how it falls or no?
 
#595
#595
cncchris33 said:
I said a week or so ago, that of the 1 seeds, I felt we matched up best with UVA. This is when Nova, UVA, Purdue, and Duke were the 1s.
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We are Virginia. We play almost the exact same game. Essentially we are statistically slightly less talented version of that team, but I wouldn’t see us getting blown out, and I could certainly see us getting the upset.

Of the current top 4, I would prefer Nova, but honestly I am not scared of anyone. I think we are a top 10 team, and I could honestly see any of the Top 10 beating anyone else. It’s a pretty level playing field at the top this year....just glad the Vols are in the conversation.
 
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#597
#597
bleedingTNorange said:
Are you able to change JUST Tennessee’s projections to losing just 1 game while keeping the others as is and see how it falls or no?
Click to expand...

1 - 1)UVA 2)Nova 3)Cincy 4)Purdue
2 - 8)Duke 7)Tenn 6)Xav 5)Kansas
3 - 9)TT 10)UNC 11)Aub 12)Clem
4 - 16)OK 15)TXAM 14)MSU 13)WVU
 
#598
#598
golfballs said:
1 - 1)UVA 2)Nova 3)Cincy 4)Purdue
2 - 8)Duke 7)Tenn 6)Xav 5)Kansas
3 - 9)TT 10)UNC 11)Aub 12)Clem
4 - 16)OK 15)TXAM 14)MSU 13)WVU
Click to expand...

We’d be in Nashville, I’ll take it..seems like the biggest variance in the model you’re using verse what the guys at ESPN discussing the 1 seed are using is Cincinnati and Duke. Seems like yours expects them to do better than what those guys are saying.
 
#599
#599
That selection show preview is Sunday where the committee is going to name the CURRENT top 16 seeds, even with a loss Saturday the Vols should hear their name, but I would love to see where we are with a win Saturday.
 
#600
#600
bleedingTNorange said:
We’d be in Nashville, I’ll take it..seems like the biggest variance in the model you’re using verse what the guys at ESPN discussing the 1 seed are using is Cincinnati and Duke. Seems like yours expects them to do better than what those guys are saying.
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It's because BPI uses SOR as it's primary indicator for seeding. Historically it's been the the most accurate. However on the team sheets it's now only 1 of 3 just in the resume section alone. Not to mention the quality ranks and quadrants.

Xavier has a high SOR, but not projected to be conference champ, same goes for MSU and Clemson. So the next highest SOR favorited to win their conference is us.

I don't know, maybe SOR will continue to be the best indicator, but we'll get a much better sense when the committee releases their top 16 on Sunday
 
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