Official Bracket Watch Thread

#428
#428
bleedingTNorange said:
Open for discussion on Wichita State vs. Memphis???
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I “think” Wichita State, but it’s a tough call. I think both of them lose their next game, so chances of Wichita moving much in the NET are pretty low. Memphis on the other hand could move up especially with wins over WSU and Houston, and we are far closer to Memphis on the bubble.
 
#431
#431
We gained another Q1 win last night by not even playing. Florida moved up to 29 in the NET, which squeaks them into Q1 territory. So now we're 3-9 in Q1 games.

Bad news is Auburn fell out of the top 30, so that game Saturday is now a Q2 game (for now). It is an absolute must win.
 
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#432
#432
BruinVol said:
It was all on those numbers and they won’t have that advantage if we win these upcoming games even if they win theirs
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You’ve said yourself Tennessee isn’t cracking the Too 50? Arkansas is low 40’s and with a road win might very well move into the high 30’s, they’ll still have the edge in those numbers.
 
#433
#433
bleedingTNorange said:
You’ve said yourself Tennessee isn’t cracking the Too 50? Arkansas is low 40’s and with a road win might very well move into the high 30’s, they’ll still have the edge in those numbers.
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I’ve also said I don’t buy the NET is a number that is used with much validation
 
#436
#436
scottchatt said:
I “think” Wichita State, but it’s a tough call. I think both of them lose their next game, so chances of Wichita moving much in the NET are pretty low. Memphis on the other hand could move up especially with wins over WSU and Houston, and we are far closer to Memphis on the bubble.
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Good point, Memphis next game is much tougher than Wichita’s...do you get greedy and hope Memphis wins tonight, potentially knocking out WSU, and then loses their next to Houston and they’re out too? Or do you root for Wichita State to go ahead and eliminate Memphis from consideration but pretty much lock themselves in?
 
#437
#437
bleedingTNorange said:
RPI for both teams is similar to their NET, no?
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I think conference record, Q1 and q2 records are more important

Right now they are 3-5 and 4-6

We are 3-9 and 5-3. If we win our Next 3 games we will flip those numbers in our favor.
I think they need to win at least 1 and likely 2 more than us in the SEC tourney to jump us if we both win Saturday
 
#441
#441
bleedingTNorange said:
Good point, Memphis next game is much tougher than Wichita’s...do you get greedy and hope Memphis wins tonight, potentially knocking out WSU, and then loses their next to Houston and they’re out too? Or do you root for Wichita State to go ahead and eliminate Memphis from consideration but pretty much lock themselves in?
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That’s exactly what I mean. I think Memphis is out with a loss in either game (excluding tournament victory of course). I think Wichita might get in even with 2 losses, though I definitely don’t think they should.

Memphis is in must win basketball from here until at least the AAC semis, Wichita can probably handle 2 losses, including the tournament. So a Wichita win likely opens a spot.

But, a Memphis win, followed by both losing Sunday and quick exits from the tournament...could open up two spots.

Tough one.

Let’s not talk about worst case scenario, which Wichita winning 2, and and Memphis winning the AAC tourney likely putting 4 AAC teams in NCAAT. (Houston, Cincy) AAC could definitely steal a bid this year.

Edit to add: I am really worried about conference tournaments this year. The way this season has gone, we could see WAY more bid thieves than normal. There are a lot of teams just on the outside with a close enough talent differential to steal a bid, SEC is a prime example. The top 8 teams are all good enough to win the SECT. Most conferences, even the mid major ones like the AAC are like that.
 
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#442
#442
scottchatt said:
Edit to add: I am really worried about conference tournaments this year. The way this season has gone, we could see WAY more bid thieves than normal. There are a lot of teams just on the outside with a close enough talent differential to steal a bid, SEC is a prime example. The top 8 teams are all good enough to win the SECT. Most conferences, even the mid major ones like the AAC are like that.
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Your concern is valid. I think we're due to finally be a bid thief ourselves.
 
#448
#448
On one site it shows Tennessee as having a 5% chance of getting a 6 seed in the SECT. How is that possible? We lose in any tiebreak among MSU, USC, and TAMU. Right?
 
#450
#450
If it’s a tie between us and USC, they have a better winning % against the %1 seed Kentucky. And UK has clinched the 1 seed
 
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