Off-Season Attrition

How Many Might We Lose Before Spring Camp?

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#76
#76
I expect 5 or 6. Blair would be nice. I wouldn't be surprised if Sheriron Jones transfers but I hope he parlays his talents at a different position.

Possible we lose a RB. I hope not.

I don't see O'Brian transferring, but someone on the DLine could look elsewhere. The good thing about DL is it lends itself to rotation.

You never know, a Richmond or Bouleware might look around but I think we are ok.

LBs...definitely possible with Jumper, etc. If JRM bolts early then we should be ok with Cortez, Bates, Austin Smith...

WR: Blanc could go. Croom could be a grad transfer. But I think there are enough openings with the loss of Pig, Von, Johnson he will probably stay.
 
#77
#77
sjt18 said:
This isn't something Jones talks about when praising programs like Mizzou or other programs that develop players to contribute in their 3rd, 4th, and 5th years.

The earlier years can be understood. The latter two... are disconcerting. Those are Jones' classes that he had time to evaluate and sign. The loss of 16 players before their 3rd year indicates a problem of some sort in evaluation.
Click to expand...

Attrition per class is directly proportional to, among other factors, the size of that respective class. And as you know we have had huge classes the last two years.

Also, to model this properly one would expect to see much more turnover with a newer coach rather than an established one. This is especially true if a new type of offense/defense is to be installed.
 
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#79
#79
I heard that Chip Kelly might get traded to Tennessee for a 1st rd pick. We could use him with all the speed and mobility we will have a QB. JRM could be a good fit in Philly. What do u guys think??? Win win???
 
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#80
#80
West Side Vol said:
I heard that Chip Kelly might get traded to Tennessee for a 1st rd pick. We could use him with all the speed and mobility we will have a QB. JRM could be a good fit in Philly. What do u guys think??? Win win???
Click to expand...

That's your first post?

image-300x276.png
 
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#84
#84
Fred_Jones said:
Attrition per class is directly proportional to, among other factors, the size of that respective class. And as you know we have had huge classes the last two years.

Also, to model this properly one would expect to see much more turnover with a newer coach rather than an established one. This is especially true if a new type of offense/defense is to be installed.
Click to expand...

This. We've had two HUGE classes and a new coach.
 
#85
#85
VFL-82-JP said:
Here's a chart that might be helpful:

SEC%20Attrition.png


Based on that data, the 5-10 range is most likely. Low end of it if we get back toward the SEC average, or the high end if we continue to be higher than most other teams.

0-4 would be surprising continuity.

11-15 would be a surprising level of departure.

16+ would be a clear sign of trouble.



data source: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dPjOctLHmlJ8__ub8ZqwTVz9DRRnCINjNZqjUmfm1s0/edit
Click to expand...

Some day we will be as good as Vandy and Kentucky. Look at that attrition
 
#86
#86
sjt18 said:
Peterman started for Pitt and played well in the games I saw. Paulk is being recruited by USCe and perhaps others out of JUCO. Hendrix had to sit out a year so we don't know. Apparently Ferguson will have some Power 5 opportunities out of JUCO.

Carr is over 300 lbs and seems to have played well for NW Miss CC.

D Scott had to sit out this year at ECU.

I don't have info on all of them but some still have a chance to make a mark.

BUT... if players are offered scholarships who aren't really good enough... at a higher than avg rate... that's also a problem.
Click to expand...

All of these guys could not sniff the field at UT....
 
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#87
#87
Some will come.

Some will go.

So what, who cares?

Next man up, LET'S GO!!!

If you can't stand the heat then go live in a freezer.

If you can't compete in college then get a great education because you have zero chance in the NFL.

OK, next man up, get to work, we need you in the gameday rotation on the field.

#BrickbyBrick...VFL...GBO!!!
 
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#88
#88
sjt18 said:
This isn't something Jones talks about when praising programs like Mizzou or other programs that develop players to contribute in their 3rd, 4th, and 5th years.

The earlier years can be understood. The latter two... are disconcerting. Those are Jones' classes that he had time to evaluate and sign. The loss of 16 players before their 3rd year indicates a problem of some sort in evaluation.
Click to expand...

7 of the 8 in 2014 were freshmen...kids who came in with high hopes and didn't get the playing time they wanted or were homesick or just didn't feel like they fit in...
 
#92
#92
I haven't seen a thread for this so SIAP... I was just wondering when the speculating over which players are rumored or are most likely to transfer would start... Any takers?
 
#94
#94
Fred_Jones said:
Attrition per class is directly proportional to, among other factors, the size of that respective class. And as you know we have had huge classes the last two years.
Click to expand...
By %, Jones has had the highest attrition in the SEC.

Also, to model this properly one would expect to see much more turnover with a newer coach rather than an established one. This is especially true if a new type of offense/defense is to be installed.
Click to expand...

That explains the last Dooley class and first Jones class. It doesn't explain what has happened since. Compare to other coaches who have come in recently.
 
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#97
#97
Sarms58 said:
7 of the 8 in 2014 were freshmen...kids who came in with high hopes and didn't get the playing time they wanted or were homesick or just didn't feel like they fit in...
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter why they left. It only matters that they left. They might have become contributors or maybe someone else should have been signed. But Jones cannot build the JR/SR laden roster he claims is necessary to win while having that much attrition.


We don't have to get caught up on reasons.... the effect is the same.
 
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#98
#98
Already locked in on your headstone. :)
 
#99
#99
Fred's point about class size is pertinent, but doesn't shed a lot of light.

Everything else being equal, one would expect a signing class of 35 players to lose 40% more in attrition than a class of 25. Why? Simply because the class is 40% bigger.

And that doesn't factor in the increased peer competitiveness that the larger number may bring, and associated "opting out" for another school with lower competition for starting positions. So double the 40% to 80% for the large classes (like our '14 and '15 signing classes).

We don't have attrition numbers for '15 yet, but do for '14. The SEC average attrition so far in that class is 2 players per team. 80% hypothesis says we could expect 2 * 1.8 = about 4 players worth of attrition in the same period.

We have had 8 (as of the date of that study). So we're still well beyond "normal" expectation.

There was something else at work in that class.

Peer / social trending? A couple of trendsetters talk about leaving, and the idea picks up more steam than it would in a normal team on a normal year? Maybe.

Just an outlier, law of averages giving us a "bad luck" year or two? Maybe.

Something else? Maybe.

We'll never know. And if things return closer to the "norm" this year and beyond, it's probably not important enough to worry about figuring out.

But if this becomes an annual feature of the program, it will definitely be worth looking into.
 
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#100
#100
Somewhere between 4-7. Normal stuff. No one that plays a large amount, just like last year. And this roster will continue to improve.
 
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