OddShark betting site predicts 17-6 ETSU victory

#102
#102
From my observations, as someone who tries to reverse engineer predictive data models for "fun", the Oddshark algorithm is heavily reliant on the over/under and points line to make predictions. Those aren't a big priority for Vegas and they are not posted on the site there yet -- since ETSU is a new FCS program there won't be much action anyway.

There are other things in the algorithm, but those two pieces of data are clearly the tequila and Margarita mix. Take them out and you just have a glass of ice rimmed with salt.

Other examples from their predictions:

WVU 27.6 Youngstown State 11.2
Ole Miss 24.6 Southern Illinois 20.6

Since we are 2-8 for our last 10 games and vastly under-performed against the line over the course of those 10 games, the adjustment the algorithm will make against the predicted line will be harsh.

So if the line came out with us a 21 point favorite and the over/under to be 70, Oddshark's compute would take a look at recent history and basically make us around a 10 point favorite and predict the under since we haven't been very good on offense recently. What this "prediction" is showing is that bias.
 
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#104
#104
Come on, people. This game will be over by halftime. I know everyone is licking their wounds, but let's be realistic. ETSU cannot, will not keep this game close. It'll be at least a 35-point spread by halftime and that lead will continue to grow in the second half as reserves get into the game.
 
#107
#107
Yeah...I don’t think this will happen. Played at ETSU right before the program was killed and we had several D1 guys that transferred down to play ( I was one ) and we still got destroyed by Pitt in the final season opener. Don’t see ETSU having those caliber guys they used to yet. Vols should run away with this one.
 
#108
#108
We get beat by possibly the best offense in the country this year & suddenly people legitimately think the damn Tennessee Volunteers are going to get beat by ETSU. Ridiculous fans this forum has.
 
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#111
#111
Those bas****s dont have guts to take bets. I wanted to place a decent bet and make some serious cash here.

Capture.PNG
 
#112
#112
So are they allowing people to take the vols and get 11 points? or can you bet this game? i'll take out a Heloc against my house and pay it back on Monday. Hell i'll cash in the 401k and take the hit to double it up.
 
#115
#115
NorCalVol67 said:
Hire ETSU's coach obviously.
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That's the second person I've seen that said that. Irrelevant if I agree or disagree, wtf do you do after firing a head coach with all the circumstances in which he/we are under, after the second.....SECOND game of the season.

I mean, I honestly want very badly to hear what we do after the firing. The other guy said we fire Pruitt and his whole staff. I guess make Phil the interim? Lofl.
 
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#116
#116
bmaultbay said:
IF the Vols were to lose this game, Pruitt should be shown the door before the players get out of the showers. Not going to happen.
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I don't think it's going to happen, but Saban lost Louisiana-Monroe his first year at Bama, Smart almost lost to Nicholls State in 2016. WE almost loss to UMass last year. Pruitt did NOT inherit a good team. Pruitt gets a year two short of anything but death, illness, or a major off-field scandal. Pruitt gets a Year 3 short of anything besides something like a 8-16 record or worse.
 
#117
#117
Behr said:
That's the second person I've seen that said that. Irrelevant if I agree or disagree, wtf do you do after firing a head coach with all the circumstances in which he/we are under, after the second.....SECOND game of the season.

I mean, I honestly want very badly to hear what we do after the firing. The other guy said we fire Pruitt and his whole staff. I guess make Phil the interim? Lofl.
Click to expand...

AD - Battle
HC - Dickey
Associate HC - Majors
OL coach - Fulmer
OC - Cutcliffe
DC - Chavis, first choice would be Donahue, but not sure if we can make that miracle happen
Recruiting Coordinator/Party Planner/Pimp - Kiffin
Shower Coach - Dooley

Too soon for a position for Butch, maybe next year.
 
#118
#118
NorCalVol67 said:
AD - Battle
HC - Dickey
Associate HC - Majors
OL coach - Fulmer
OC - Cutcliffe
DC - Chavis, first choice would be Donahue, but not sure if we can make that miracle happen
Recruiting Coordinator/Party Planner/Pimp - Kiffin
Shower Coach - Dooley

Too soon for a position for Butch, maybe next year.
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Its a silly discussion, but me and a friend just had it, briefly. We came to the conclusion that you just couldn't do it.

Anyway, Id be surprised if it was less than a 30 point difference.
 
#120
#120
well, it's not like I haven't seen stranger things than us getting upset...guess we'll see...:D

GO VOLS!
 
#122
#122
The line in my betting pool started off at UT -37.5

How in the world does that make anyone think we will lose AND only score 6 points? Less than we did on a stout Power 5 team.
 
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#123
#123
volmandu said:
Those bas****s dont have guts to take bets. I wanted to place a decent bet and make some serious cash here.

View attachment 167178
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Thats not the betting line. It is obviously wrong because there is no data on either team. The only betting line I have seen is from 5 dimes and because it is FCS vs FBS there won't be alot of lines out. 5 dimes has us +37.5 so there you go.
 
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#124
#124
InstrumentalVol said:
We get beat by possibly the best offense in the country this year & suddenly people legitimately think the damn Tennessee Volunteers are going to get beat by ETSU. Ridiculous fans this forum has.
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OP was sharing a link, I don't think he was saying it was going to happen.
 
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