Northwestern, Team 119, Close Games, and the FPI

#26
#26
Volbackhomefromtx said:
I like the charts and can agree with the conclusion. The two teams appear to be equally matched. If one team gets a good lead, it is likely to be the Vols. I don't think NU can be painted at Iowa 2014-Part 2. I will not be too surprised to see a hard fought contest.
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True. It would be hard to equate them with Iowa. We beat Iowa 45-28 (giving them 21 cheap points in the last quarter) while they were beaten 40-10 by Iowa. I don't think we'll give NU 21 in the 4th and still beat them by 47. It could be a bit more hard fought than that.
 
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#27
#27
As long as we don't have 17 points, and the lead going into halftime, I'll feel good about this game.
 
#28
#28
If Tennessee's Defense can get off the field with regularity and not let NU control the clock, then Tennessee should win be two scores.
 
#32
#32
NU fan here. Just want to comment on the close wins and blowout losses. One reason NU has those close games is the philosophy of the coaches. Take the Stanford game. Up 16-6, the Stanford QB throws a pass with less than 30 seconds left on the clock that gets intercepted. The defensive back looks to have a clear path all the way to the end zone with a convoy of blockers and the coach tells him to slide. The offense gets back on the field, takes a knee to end the game. In the Ball State game, the team clearly was using that as a practice for the freshman QB with the Big Ten season opener the next week. The team ran quirky offensive and defensive formations and substituted people who rarely saw the field after that game. The very next week, they shutout Minnesota 27-0.

This team clearly plays a strategy and you can see it in the game and read it in the box scores. It is definitely not a team looking at putting up flashy scores. It changes how it plays depending on what the game is like.

On offense, Northwestern plays a very methodical game based on both the field situation and game situation. On the field situation, they are conservation between the goal and 25 yard lines on both ends and aggressive from 25 to 25. So, you will see more straight run plays and safe short pass plays close to the goal line. The downfield passes or more aggressive runs occur where a mistake won't lead to an immediate score or take away an immediate potential score. NU will settle for the FG attempt rather than risk the interception and get nothing. One thing it will do is change the pace as it moves down the field. It starts slow using 35-40 seconds so that if it is a quick three and out, the defense had some rest. As it continues picking up first downs, it starts going faster until it is snapping the ball 6-10 seconds at the end of the previous play.

As the game progresses, the offense and defense will either become more conservative or aggressive depending on the score of the game. So, if the team has a lead, it will play conservative. This means running the ball and playing zone defense. If it is behind or in danger, it goes to hurry up offense and aggressive defense.

Forget all the rest of the stats, you can tell how hard the game was for NU to win by tracking the ration of running plays to passing plays NU had to use.

Northwestern Number of Plays
PASS PLAYS / RUN PLAYS / OPPONENT / FINAL SCORE
43 26 IOWA 10-40
33 25 MICH 0-38
28 28 NEB 30-28 (Missed 2pt conv by Neb)
32 47 PSU 23-21 (FG time expired to win)
31 51 Ball State 24-19 Practice for freshman
24 48 Purdue 24-17 QB Benched
25 54 Illinois 24-14 2 score margin
25 54 Stanford 16-6 2 score margin
23 54 Duke 19-10 2 score margin
20 50 Wisconsin 13-7 BELOW FREEZING GAME - Dominated until the end
19 51 Minnesota 27-0 Only true blow-out
16 69 Eastern Illinois 41-0 Just for fun

As for losing big in those games. They got away. Iowa and Mich had defenses that were too good for the freshman QB to mount an attack. Under 50% passing and under 150 yards. No way to expect anything if you do that and you are throwing most of the time. But it wasn't that they stopped the run. It was we fell behind and had to try and catch up.
 
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#35
#35
The Artful Dodger said:
Coach Fitz's face after Hurd runs for a buck fitty and two TD's.
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dudes02.JPG
 
#38
#38
VFL-82-JP said:
No such thing as a moral victory.

However, there is such a thing as a close game.

And close games might just be the "hidden stats" in a comparison of Tennessee and Northwestern's seasons.

Consider this:

WampL.jpg


Took all of the Vols' and Wildcats' opponents this year and slapped them onto a chart, 1 to 100+, using ESPN FPI end-of-season standings. Wins have a green background, and losses have a red background.

First thing that pops out: the Vols played a tougher top-end than NU, two teams in the Top 5 (in fact, they are the #1 and #2 teams in the nation, per the FPI). Below that, the results appear very similar: there's a zone, from about the 10-range down to about the 30-range, where both Vols and Cats have a mix of wins and losses with no clear dividing line between them. Then from 40 on down, both teams won every game they played.

From this chart, one might conclude that the two teams are very closely matched, and it should be a tight game.

But that doesn't take into account close games. Maybe they can tell us more:

WLampCG.jpg


This chart is identical to the one before, except that any game with a final score within a TD of even now gets a yellow background.

You'll notice Tennessee's red-backgrounds all disappeared. All four losses were close games. NU's, on the other hand, did not. Michigan beat the Cats 38-0, and Iowa whupped them 40-10.

So first new note: the ability to lose big if things turn south is absolutely in the NU team's DNA; it is entirely missing from Team 119, even against the best competition in the land.

Second note is this: teams all the way down at the bottom of the well had the ability to play NU close. Purdue (FPI #87, final score 21-14) and even Ball State (FPI #103, final score 24-19) were able to hang close to the Cats. Aside from #62 South Carolina, the Vols had no trouble pulling well away from outclassed opponents.

So What? What does this say?

Can be interpreted perhaps in a variety of ways, but what I think I'm taking from it is this: the game might be close...it might come right down to the wire. But if it doesn't, if it's a blowout, it's only going to be a blowout in favor of the Vols. From this chart, it looks like NU largely doesn't know how to win big, and Team 119 clearly does not lose big.

This doesn't mean NU sucks and Vols win, write it down, put it in the vault, we're done here. Nope, doesn't mean that at all. It only means that the Vols have the ability to beat anyone, while the Cats have the ability to be beaten by anyone.

It's good to be on our side of that equation.
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You win the Internet today (yellow font)
 
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#39
#39
JustGary said:
NU fan here. Just want to comment on the close wins and blowout losses. One reason NU has those close games is the philosophy of the coaches. Take the Stanford game. Up 16-6, the Stanford QB throws a pass with less than 30 seconds left on the clock that gets intercepted. The defensive back looks to have a clear path all the way to the end zone with a convoy of blockers and the coach tells him to slide. The offense gets back on the field, takes a knee to end the game. In the Ball State game, the team clearly was using that as a practice for the freshman QB with the Big Ten season opener the next week. The team ran quirky offensive and defensive formations and substituted people who rarely saw the field after that game. The very next week, they shutout Minnesota 27-0.

This team clearly plays a strategy and you can see it in the game and read it in the box scores. It is definitely not a team looking at putting up flashy scores. It changes how it plays depending on what the game is like.

On offense, Northwestern plays a very methodical game based on both the field situation and game situation. On the field situation, they are conservation between the goal and 25 yard lines on both ends and aggressive from 25 to 25. So, you will see more straight run plays and safe short pass plays close to the goal line. The downfield passes or more aggressive runs occur where a mistake won't lead to an immediate score or take away an immediate potential score. NU will settle for the FG attempt rather than risk the interception and get nothing. One thing it will do is change the pace as it moves down the field. It starts slow using 35-40 seconds so that if it is a quick three and out, the defense had some rest. As it continues picking up first downs, it starts going faster until it is snapping the ball 6-10 seconds at the end of the previous play.

As the game progresses, the offense and defense will either become more conservative or aggressive depending on the score of the game. So, if the team has a lead, it will play conservative. This means running the ball and playing zone defense. If it is behind or in danger, it goes to hurry up offense and aggressive defense.

Forget all the rest of the stats, you can tell how hard the game was for NU to win by tracking the ration of running plays to passing plays NU had to use.

Northwestern Number of Plays
PASS PLAYS / RUN PLAYS / OPPONENT / FINAL SCORE
43 26 IOWA 10-40
33 25 MICH 0-38
28 28 NEB 30-28 (Missed 2pt conv by Neb)
32 47 PSU 23-21 (FG time expired to win)
31 51 Ball State 24-19 Practice for freshman
24 48 Purdue 24-17 QB Benched
25 54 Illinois 24-14 2 score margin
25 54 Stanford 16-6 2 score margin
23 54 Duke 19-10 2 score margin
20 50 Wisconsin 13-7 BELOW FREEZING GAME - Dominated until the end
19 51 Minnesota 27-0 Only true blow-out
16 69 Eastern Illinois 41-0 Just for fun

As for losing big in those games. They got away. Iowa and Mich had defenses that were too good for the freshman QB to mount an attack. Under 50% passing and under 150 yards. No way to expect anything if you do that and you are throwing most of the time. But it wasn't that they stopped the run. It was we fell behind and had to try and catch up.
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Nice post JustGary - welcome to Volnation! :hi:
 
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#40
#40
JustGary said:
...One reason NU has those close games is the philosophy of the coaches.....

...

As for losing big in those games. They got away....
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Thanks, Gary, for posting. I agree with you in places, and disagree in others.

Prime disagreement: no matter what the coaches' philosophies, you don't go into "protect a lead" mode with the score within a touchdown. There isn't a coach in America who finds 5 points, or 7 points, a comfortable lead.

Biggest point of agreement: the Michigan and Iowa games "got away" from NU. That's kind of the main point of the original post: NU can lose big, it's within the 2015 Cats' DNA.
 
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#41
#41
JustGary said:
NU fan here. Just want to comment on the close wins and blowout losses. One reason NU has those close games is the philosophy of the coaches. Take the Stanford game. Up 16-6, the Stanford QB throws a pass with less than 30 seconds left on the clock that gets intercepted. The defensive back looks to have a clear path all the way to the end zone with a convoy of blockers and the coach tells him to slide. The offense gets back on the field, takes a knee to end the game. In the Ball State game, the team clearly was using that as a practice for the freshman QB with the Big Ten season opener the next week. The team ran quirky offensive and defensive formations and substituted people who rarely saw the field after that game. The very next week, they shutout Minnesota 27-0.

This team clearly plays a strategy and you can see it in the game and read it in the box scores. It is definitely not a team looking at putting up flashy scores. It changes how it plays depending on what the game is like.

On offense, Northwestern plays a very methodical game based on both the field situation and game situation. On the field situation, they are conservation between the goal and 25 yard lines on both ends and aggressive from 25 to 25. So, you will see more straight run plays and safe short pass plays close to the goal line. The downfield passes or more aggressive runs occur where a mistake won't lead to an immediate score or take away an immediate potential score. NU will settle for the FG attempt rather than risk the interception and get nothing. One thing it will do is change the pace as it moves down the field. It starts slow using 35-40 seconds so that if it is a quick three and out, the defense had some rest. As it continues picking up first downs, it starts going faster until it is snapping the ball 6-10 seconds at the end of the previous play.

As the game progresses, the offense and defense will either become more conservative or aggressive depending on the score of the game. So, if the team has a lead, it will play conservative. This means running the ball and playing zone defense. If it is behind or in danger, it goes to hurry up offense and aggressive defense.

Forget all the rest of the stats, you can tell how hard the game was for NU to win by tracking the ration of running plays to passing plays NU had to use.

Northwestern Number of Plays
PASS PLAYS / RUN PLAYS / OPPONENT / FINAL SCORE
43 26 IOWA 10-40
33 25 MICH 0-38
28 28 NEB 30-28 (Missed 2pt conv by Neb)
32 47 PSU 23-21 (FG time expired to win)
31 51 Ball State 24-19 Practice for freshman
24 48 Purdue 24-17 QB Benched
25 54 Illinois 24-14 2 score margin
25 54 Stanford 16-6 2 score margin
23 54 Duke 19-10 2 score margin
20 50 Wisconsin 13-7 BELOW FREEZING GAME - Dominated until the end
19 51 Minnesota 27-0 Only true blow-out
16 69 Eastern Illinois 41-0 Just for fun

As for losing big in those games. They got away. Iowa and Mich had defenses that were too good for the freshman QB to mount an attack. Under 50% passing and under 150 yards. No way to expect anything if you do that and you are throwing most of the time. But it wasn't that they stopped the run. It was we fell behind and had to try and catch up.
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Good post and welcome to our board. You'll have to excuse some (or a lot) of posters on here. You see, Vols fans have had some incredibly bad years lately, and we used to be a national power, so we have some serious bi-polar disorder. If we win a game against good competition, we'll start spouting how we are world beaters and playoff contenders because a lot of us have memories of being that good, then we'll lose the next game and the meltdown begins. It's just a fact. But the truth is we are still rebuilding and have a lot of young talent, Coach Jones (CBJ) and staff have done a good job of turning the players losing mindset around, and it showed this season. Our players believe, and rightfully so, that they can play with anyone in the nation now. The next step is to start believing you can beat anyone in the nation. But they give their all for Tennessee every game now. And for a lot of us fans who have been through the ups and downs, were happy to see that. Our future is indeed a bright one. No offense to you and the other NU fans, but I hope it's a blowout in the Vols favor, however, if we don't get off to a fast start, the game will probably be a grinder. Thanks again for the quality post. Go Vols!!!!!
 
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#42
#42
sjt18 said:
I haven't seen charts that deem this an equal match up. All of the ones I've seen have UT favored.

But it is more than that. UT has an advantage in EVERY single match up.

This will be the slowest DL UT has faced all year... and not the biggest or most physical.

They have two good CB's but UT should be able to get match ups against their S's and LB's that kill them.

They have a good LB. He hasn't seen a RB this year as good as Hurd, Kamara, ... or even Dobbs except for McCaffrey. Remember Stanford for some mysterious reason barely gave McCaffrey any touches. If they had... that would have been a different game.

UT's front 6/7 should dominate their OL. They have neither the size nor athleticism to win that match up.

Their WR's can't catch. They're decent athletes. Jackson has gotten a lot of carries and yardage. He's a small back who is by no stretch as quick as Michel and several others UT has faced.

IMHO, the most dangerous player on their O is the QB. He can take off with it and throws fairly well... if someone could catch it. But UT's down 4 will probably pressure him on every throw. He hasn't performed well when pressured.
Click to expand...

their WR's can't catch....did Malone transfer to Northwestern
 
#43
#43
here's what i see, we've played better defenses than this, and fared pretty well.

we've played much better offenses, and fared pretty well.

special teams, we'll be the best they've played all year.

with a month to prepare, get healthy, i'm expecting a similar performance to last year against Iowa. i think NW can keep this game close early because of their defense.

but if we don't make bone headed mistakes and turn it over on offense, there's no reason we shouldn't run away with this game in the 2nd half at some point and win by 10+. it's going to be hard to convince me that we don't have better players at most every position, and i don't think they've played a QB like Dobbs all year.

respect to NU and the 10-2 record, and top 15 ranking. but only Mich, Iowa and Stanford can boast as much, or more talent, as TN, and they lost 2 of those big.
 
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#44
#44
My biggest fear in this game is a perception that we've had a propensity to fumble the ball, especially on the goal line. I guess, in a way, it's better to fumble on their goal line than our own, but still... I think our O is more than they can handle if we finish drives, compared to how their O will match up against our D.
 
#45
#45
VFL-82-JP said:
Thanks, Gary, for posting. I agree with you in places, and disagree in others.

Prime disagreement: no matter what the coaches' philosophies, you don't go into "protect a lead" mode with the score within a touchdown. There isn't a coach in America who finds 5 points, or 7 points, a comfortable lead.

Biggest point of agreement: the Michigan and Iowa games "got away" from NU. That's kind of the main point of the original post: NU can lose big, it's within the 2015 Cats' DNA.
Click to expand...

I didn't say it was a good strategy but it is the strategy they used this year and for this year it worked. It has driven the fans crazy watching the team. You sit there and wonder, "why the hell don't they attack them like they did in the first half"? It's boring and in previous years, we would blow those leads. In 2013, we lost five games where we lead going into the fourth quarter. This year, we have not because the defense is better. One issue is the freshman QB. His experience level is not that high and they don't want him to make costly mistakes. So with the lead, they go to the run game.

The DNA comment is a bit of fluff. The players on the field have seen nothing but victory. The coaching staff is 70-45. The seniors have been on a 10-game winner in 2012 and won the Gator bowl. So, it may be in the fanbase but not in the team.
 
#47
#47
jakez4ut said:
here's what i see, we've played better defenses than this, and fared pretty well.

we've played much better offenses, and fared pretty well.

special teams, we'll be the best they've played all year.

with a month to prepare, get healthy, i'm expecting a similar performance to last year against Iowa. i think NW can keep this game close early because of their defense.

but if we don't make bone headed mistakes and turn it over on offense, there's no reason we shouldn't run away with this game in the 2nd half at some point and win by 10+. it's going to be hard to convince me that we don't have better players at most every position, and i don't think they've played a QB like Dobbs all year.

respect to NU and the 10-2 record, and top 15 ranking. but only Mich, Iowa and Stanford can boast as much, or more talent, as TN, and they lost 2 of those big.
Click to expand...

After much analysis, here is what the data tells me:
1) We struggle with teams who use a red/orange color on their jersey. See Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgis, Florida in upper left quadrant of chart.
2) All other colors, we kick dey azz. See lower left quadrant of chart.
3) Northwetern is purple which is outside the red/orange portion of the color wheel.

Therefore, we gonna kick dey azz!
 
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#48
#48
JustGary said:
I didn't say it was a good strategy but it is the strategy they used....
Click to expand...

Actually, highly likely that it is not. Far more likely you misunderstood what you saw.

Apply Rational Man standard and ask this Q: would any rational coach--regardless of opponent, time remaining, or need to get backups game reps--go conservative to "protect a lead" only one score ahead? Clear answer: No. Simply not a rational decision, no matter what the conditions.

So it is quite likely that was not Fitzgerald & Co.'s strategy.

Easy to confuse intent (strategy) and outcome (execution) if you're not paying very close attention. Think that may be what happened to you.

Jax_Vol said:
After much analysis, here is what the data tells me: ... Northwetern is purple which is outside the red/orange portion of the color wheel...Therefore, we gonna kick dey azz!
Click to expand...

This is quality analysis, better than mine. I'm a fan, Jax. :good!:
 
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#49
#49
Jax_Vol said:
After much analysis, here is what the data tells me:
1) We struggle with teams who use a red/orange color on their jersey. See Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgis, Florida in upper left quadrant of chart.
2) All other colors, we kick dey azz. See lower left quadrant of chart.
3) Northwetern is purple which is outside the red/orange portion of the color wheel.

Therefore, we gonna kick dey azz!
Click to expand...

Purple is a combination of red/blue. It could go either way, my friend.
 
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#50
#50
JustGary said:
Forget all the rest of the stats, you can tell how hard the game was for NU to win by tracking the ration of running plays to passing plays NU had to use.
Click to expand...
When someone has a big lead against you, you have no choice but to throw.

Northwestern Number of Plays
PASS PLAYS / RUN PLAYS / OPPONENT / FINAL SCORE
43 26 IOWA 10-40
33 25 MICH 0-38
28 28 NEB 30-28 (Missed 2pt conv by Neb)
32 47 PSU 23-21 (FG time expired to win)
31 51 Ball State 24-19 Practice for freshman
24 48 Purdue 24-17 QB Benched
25 54 Illinois 24-14 2 score margin
25 54 Stanford 16-6 2 score margin
23 54 Duke 19-10 2 score margin
20 50 Wisconsin 13-7 BELOW FREEZING GAME - Dominated until the end
19 51 Minnesota 27-0 Only true blow-out
16 69 Eastern Illinois 41-0 Just for fun
Click to expand...

I watched most or all of Ball State, Duke, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and Iowa. I watched a portion of Stanford and Illinois.

I saw absolutely no evidence of what you claim vs Ball State. A very bad team took NU to the wire. Ball St had a half time lead and was within one score for most of the 2nd half.

I saw no domination vs UW. You really can't judge much from a frozen field game where both teams barely break 200 yds of total O.

Nebraska should have beaten NU. They gained more yardage but made more mistakes.

As for losing big in those games. They got away. Iowa and Mich had defenses that were too good for the freshman QB to mount an attack. Under 50% passing and under 150 yards. No way to expect anything if you do that and you are throwing most of the time. But it wasn't that they stopped the run. It was we fell behind and had to try and catch up.
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Sorry but NU didn't give up on the run vs Iowa or Mich. They took it away. NU had 26 and 25 rush attempts respectively... and avg'd under 2 ypc. Your pass O was under 50% completions AND under 150 yds in 8 of your 12 games.

Those games didn't "get away". NU was outclassed by much better teams.
 
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