I do think that 2017 will be the year of "no excuses" for CBJ. He will be on the hot seat, and he will be coaching for his job. Again, JMO, but here's why:
- New Chancellor. May or may not be "big" on athletics, but Chancellors like to show why they were the right choice, and overseeing upgrades to the football, basketball, Lady Vols (basketball), and baseball programs, would be huge. It's not going to happen all at once, but football, as the milk cow for the Athletic Department, is the logical place to start.
- New AD. This is one thing that all of VN seems to agree on: Blackburn is the perfect choice. If he gets the nod, he's going to act quickly, and decisively. He isn't tone deaf. He hears what the media, both local and national, are saying. He hears the rumblings in the fan base. Probably in the ranks of the boosters as well. He knows how this ends if he doesn't act to protect and restore the brand. And he remembers well the missteps that led us to Kiffin, and Dooley. He knows that you get what you pay for. When Blackburn acts, and he will, he will have a solid plan.
- My guess is that CBJ is back for 2017 regardless. There may or may not be changes on the staff. Recruiting may or may not dip. There may or not not be changes in the scheme. But I think Blackburn has a sit-down with CBJ fairly early on, and lays out some very clear conditions for Butch to keep his job beyond 2017. Anything less than 9 wins, and/or winning the SEC East, and Butch is gone. While I can envision a scenario where 8 wins, or just missing out on Atlanta might be acceptable...once...I also think that Blackburn has already conducted his own personal evaluation of "ButchBall", and has determined that CBJ is simply in over his head. Again, JMO.
- I think Blackburn lays it out for CBJ in clear terms, and then sits back and gives him the chance to succeed, or fail. And here's where it gets murky, for me at least. Butch's personality does not lend itself to being told what to do, or given ultimatums. How he reacts to that hypothetical scenario is critical. He won't resign; his ego won't let him do that. But he could just spend 2017 going through the motions, and accept the fact that he's going back to the MAC, where he's more comfortable.
- For VN, watch the bowl game, regardless of who the opponent is, and then watch any changes to the staff. If the Vols show some fire in the bowl game, good sign. If he makes quality upgrades to the staff, that's a double good sign. It means Butch is truly "all in" for UT, and it means that there are other coaches out there who believe in what he is trying to so. We'll know a lot more by mid-January.
- And then recruiting. The Cottman thing bothers me. The implication being that Butch is trading future talent for "win now" Juco's. If so, it's a clear sign that Butch knows he's coaching for his job in 2017. I just can't find any other way to interpret that one. If Butch closes out NSD with a top 15 class, it means he can still sell his vision to recruits, and it likely means he thinks he can win at UT, and stay at UT. But if we end up with a class full of 3-stars and Juco's...go buy a cheap couch.
- Although I have come to the opinion that Butch is simply not "General Material", I really wanted him to be the guy when he was hired. He looks good on the sideline. He looks like a UT Football coach. He's got a cool nickname. But 4 years later, and after having backtracked to Cincinnati media and fan boards to see what they said about him when he left...what I see now is exactly what they said we were getting. There's no escaping that.
- If UT is, and remains an 8 to 9 win program, with a trip to Atlanta every 4 years or so, and a CFP berth every 10 years or so, then I think Butch can probably get us at least as far as Atlanta. Beyond that, I have my doubts. But if we want more...if the bar is higher now (and it should be)...then I think we have to set our expectations high, and hold the line.
- Butch has had his chance. It's time to put up, or move on.
Go Vols.
