New Video on Math of Covid and Football

#2
#2
The cliff notes for those who don't want to watch, there's a percent of a percent chance that a player will get Covid, test negative, play on saturday, and infect another player. Analysts who are so focused on game day spread are focusing on the transmission rate for skin to skin contact (posterior probability) and not focused on the chances that the infected player is in the game to begin with (prior probability).

A good example of this is the librarian vs waitress conundrum. You see a girl and you know she's either a librarian or a waitress, but she's dressed somewhat like a librarian and is reading book. Our brains tell us she's probably a librarian, even though the odds say she's a waitress since they outnumber librarians like 20 to 1.

Note, this doesn't go in depth on the spread in the locker room, really just the spread on game days.
 
#3
#3
Unfortunetly, the optics of any decision are much more important to administrators than the actual causal impact of the decisions. It's silly, but that's how it is. It isn't that the universities can't do an analysis like this, it's that they really don't care.

Great video!
 
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#4
#4
Ten_Titans said:
Unfortunetly, the optics of any decision are much more important to administrators than the actual causal impact of the decisions. It's silly, but that's how it is. It isn't that the universities can't do an analysis like this, it's that they really don't care.

Great video!
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I agree completely! Maybe if the public can get educated on the facts than the optics can change. One can only hope haha
 
#7
#7
VolFann9 said:
Business Analytics, I'm sure there's a few alum from the program roaming around this board somewhere!
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I considered enrolling in that program but at a B1G school that offered it online. The UT curriculum looks pretty good. What’s your undergrad degree in?
 
#8
#8
I enjoyed your video. I’m teaching stats this semester and may try to use this in my class.
 
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#10
#10
VolFann9 said:
I'm a master's student at UT, have been wanting to start a YouTube channel for a while now on math and sports analytics. Thought I would kick it off with Covid and fooball. If you like it, share. If you don't, that's okay too 😂

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Good job and thanks for sharing.

I look forward to seeing your future videos........
 
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#11
#11
VolFann9 said:
I'm a master's student at UT, have been wanting to start a YouTube channel for a while now on math and sports analytics. Thought I would kick it off with Covid and fooball. If you like it, share. If you don't, that's okay too 😂

Click to expand...

Great! I applaud you from being one very few people who took the time to investigate the math and use logic instead of listening to the completely ignorant talking heads of the media and unfortunately our government at every level.

"The corona virus is so deadly, you have to get tested to find out if you have it"
 
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#13
#13
VolFann9 said:
I agree completely! Maybe if the public can get educated on the facts than the optics can change. One can only hope haha
Click to expand...

Public doesn’t seem to want facts. They seem to want fear and the status quo. No need for facts. The only facts that seem to matter are positive test numbers and doctored death numbers.
 
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#14
#14
Great video. Thanks for breaking the numbers down like you did. One point though, there are no more athletic dorms (non-athletes make up at least half of the Stokely population) which I think is a point you were trying to make. I think we have Michigan to thank for that but my memory may be faulty. Go VOLS!
 
#15
#15
BigOrangeTailgate said:
Great video. Thanks for breaking the numbers down like you did. One point though, there are no more athletic dorms (non-athletes make up at least half of the Stokely population) which I think is a point you were trying to make. I think we have Michigan to thank for that but my memory may be faulty. Go VOLS!
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I think you're right, should've doubled checked that. Stokely has like 800 beds, but there's a little less than 500 athletes. They would definitely section off by floors though
 
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#16
#16
Super job, @VolFann9. You really did well.

Love when someone brings together analytics and the Vols, two of my favorite pastimes. And you did it very well. Wish you the best of luck with your YouTube endeavors. Only suggestion I could give to improve your likelihood of success is to get a hot girlfriend and have her sit beside you while you tape the video. Heh. Seriously, best of luck!

Go Vols!
 
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#17
#17
golfballs said:
I considered enrolling in that program but at a B1G school that offered it online. The UT curriculum looks pretty good. What’s your undergrad degree in?
Click to expand...

Undergrad degree is Math, which definitely helps with the program. Wish I had done more programming before I started, but it is what it is. UT's program is fantastic , I really do love it. Math and comp sci students tend to do well in the program, but more business minded, outgoing people tend to do better long term if you catch my drift haha.

I'm actually involved with the sports analytics club at UT and I'm trying hard to build it up. Wanting to establish a relationship with the athletic department, but they're still somewhat skeptical of analytics. Someone should show them Moneyball or something
 
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#18
#18
VFL-82-JP said:
Super job, @VolFann9. You really did well.

Love when someone brings together analytics and the Vols, two of my favorite pastimes. And you did it very well. Wish you the best of luck with your YouTube endeavors. Only suggestion I could give to improve your likelihood of success is to get a hot girlfriend and have her sit beside you while you tape the video. Heh. Seriously, best of luck!

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

That is the best suggestion I've heard in a long time. I will do my best to execute that plan 😅 thanks for the support!
 
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#20
#20
VolFann9 said:
The cliff notes for those who don't want to watch, there's a percent of a percent chance that a player will get Covid, test negative, play on saturday, and infect another player. Analysts who are so focused on game day spread are focusing on the transmission rate for skin to skin contact (posterior probability) and not focused on the chances that the infected player is in the game to begin with (prior probability).

A good example of this is the librarian vs waitress conundrum. You see a girl and you know she's either a librarian or a waitress, but she's dressed somewhat like a librarian and is reading book. Our brains tell us she's probably a librarian, even though the odds say she's a waitress since they outnumber librarians like 20 to 1.

Note, this doesn't go in depth on the spread in the locker room, really just the spread on game days.
Click to expand...


Is there evidence that analysts who are focused on game day spread are limiting their probability to skin to skin contact and disregarding other types of spread, especially airborne?
 
#21
#21
VolFann9 said:
Undergrad degree is Math, which definitely helps with the program. Wish I had done more programming before I started, but it is what it is. UT's program is fantastic , I really do love it. Math and comp sci students tend to do well in the program, but more business minded, outgoing people tend to do better long term if you catch my drift haha.

I'm actually involved with the sports analytics club at UT and I'm trying hard to build it up. Wanting to establish a relationship with the athletic department, but they're still somewhat skeptical of analytics. Someone should show them Moneyball or something
Click to expand...
Math is an excellent background to have. Too bad about the AD. There are a lot of athletic departments across the country that have embraced it. Even small schools.
 
#22
#22
If you don't think the media is pushing the optics, just google any 3 or 4 digit number followed by cases. For example: "1234 cases".
 
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